Surveys have shown Trump making inroads with younger voters and non-white voters, but that support has often appeared soft, meaning they haven’t fully made up their minds.
A not-guilty verdict would have somewhat of an inverse effect of a guilty verdict. Almost 1 in 5 voters under 45, non-white voters, those who make less than $50,000 a year and others said an acquittal would make them more likely to vote for Trump.
Mike Burr, a Democrat from Georgia, told NPR the trial won’t affect his vote because he’s voting against Trump.
“The trial kind of affirms that I don't think anybody should be voting for Donald Trump,” Burr said. “I don't think Donald Trump is good for the country.”
John Duvall, a Republican from Tennessee, had the opposite view.
“I think it’s a big farce,” Duvall said. “It’s an attack on Donald Trump. … I’ll vote for him more because of what they’re doing, because it’s illegal. If they send him to jail, I’ll still vote for him, because the whole thing is a political attack on him.”
Small, but perhaps important, percentages of core Trump voter groups also said they would be less likely to vote for Trump if he were found guilty — those who live in small towns (17%), whites without college degrees (14%), those who live in rural areas (11%) and Republicans (10%).
Just 11% of independents said a guilty verdict would make them less likely to vote for Trump.
In a race that’s expected to be close, any decline, even at the margins, could have an effect, but the numbers demonstrate just how little the trial is likely to swing many voters at all, no matter the verdict.
Views of both Trump and Biden are simply very locked-in.