THE MAGIC NUMBER THREAD

[Law's Bus]

It's interesting that at the time of the first post the title magic number was 62. Now after a "wobble" in January it's now 38.

Shows just how little that wobble actually was.

 

[jd1981]

Average the points out Villa and Cardiff will get 86 and Derby will get 87. Obviously good chance it won’t be those figures could need as little as 84 or as many as 92 just don’t know.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

I like the fact that we are the only team that can beat that Reading total now.

Hope we do it, and Wigan drop a few points so that we can have the best ever points totals for second AND third tiers.

 

[fizzwolf]

One simple calculation regarding other teams fixtures is the magic number for Promotion as both Derby and Cardiff cannot reach 105 points - one of them 102 or both 103 meaining 36 would be enough - I know I know we aren’t looking at other teams playing one another (though I did)

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

I did toy with the idea of knocking two points off everyone as they must surely be playing each other, but like I say I will save that for ten games to go.

 

[jd1981]

It’s all irrelevant as Villa are going to leave everyone in their wake and catch us so we might just get 2nd place.

 

[nimrod]

Average the points out Villa and Cardiff will get 86 and Derby will get 87. Obviously good chance it won’t be those figures could need as little as 84 or as many as 92 just don’t know.

92 points for us is 8 more wins. I think we'd all hope to get a few more than 92 but I just want us to chalk up those 8 wins as soon as possible then just enjoy the rest of the run in.

 

[lemonjelly]

If next weekend we guarantee we can't be relegated, I'll be buzzing! Mainly around all the fuckwit blues fans I work with.

 

[Tony Towner]

I'm also at 92 in my mind target wise. 664, which should be simple as long as we don't lose our focus, which I can't see Nuno letting happen.

 

[jd1981]

Agree get the job done ASAP, since Villa started their run of 6 straight wins they’ve only made a 5 point dent into the deficit just shows what they need to do. We’re at that stage now where if we win it doesn’t matter what the rest do as it’s another game gone with no ground lost.

 

[jd1981]

I'm also at 92 in my mind target wise. 664, which should be simple as long as we don't lose our focus, which I can't see Nuno letting happen.

Home games against QPR, Reading, Norwich, Burton, Hull, Blues, Wednesday also have Derby.
Away games at Bolton and Sunderland to. Yes we have to go to Fulham, Preston Villa Cardiff and Boro but out of the 6?toughies will we lose all 6?

 

[Tony Towner]

Home games against QPR, Reading, Norwich, Burton, Hull, Blues, Wednesday also have Derby.
Away games at Bolton and Sunderland to. Yes we have to go to Fulham, Preston Villa Cardiff and Boro but out of the 6?toughies will we lose all 6?

And Leeds away. If you were being extremely pessimistic, you could go 521 at home and 134 away so, 655 and 91 points. So even with a very unlikely set of results that I don't think anyone here would predict we'd still probably have enough.

 

[jd1981]

Highest anyone has got at this level and not been promoted is 90 points. Reality is 1 more run of good results for us and it’s pretty much done and dusted.

 

[Law's Bus]

Agree get the job done ASAP, since Villa started their run of 6 straight wins they’ve only made a 5 point dent into the deficit just shows what they need to do.

They have done yes. However, they're one point further away than they were 10 games ago, which is something that Villa fans don't like mentioning.

 

[lemonjelly]

They have done yes. However, they're one point further away than they were 10 games ago, which is something that Villa fans don't like me mentioning at every available opportunity.

 

[Penk Wolf]

Surely the best way is to use the PPG for the current 3rd place team as the magic number doesn't really tell you anything as there is no way we are going to need 106 points for promotion?

 

[Johnny75]

Using that as a measure over the last 8 games PPG then the table would look like:

Wolves 102pts
Fulham 95
Villa 94
Derby 89

 

[Penk Wolf]

Using that as a measure over the last 8 games PPG then the table would look like:

Wolves 102pts
Fulham 95
Villa 94
Derby 89

I'm thinking more

Derby played 30 points 57 at 1.9 PPG, so 1st place would be 88 pts.
Cardiff played 29 points 54 at 1.9 PPG, so 2nd place would be 88 pts.

meaning we require 20 points for either.

 

[Johnny75]

In which case using PPG over the whole season the table would look like:

Wolves 104pts (2.27ppg)
Derby 88 (1.9)
Villa 86 (1.87)
Cardiff 86 (1.86)

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

But that wouldn't be the magic number as that number is the number needed to GUARANTEE promotion or a title now. Plus by using this measure you can watch it fall quite quickly because the games left are reducing, which is somewhat enjoyable.