The January 2024 "Will we actually sign a striker or just Che Adams/Kieffer Moore" Transfer Thread

[Elephant Pyjamas]

Kilman has been largely excellent since Luton.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

He's fine in a three (very lucky not to give away a goal on Saturday, mind)

He is awful in a two

He isn't remotely near good enough to base our entire strategy around him, especially when we have no functional RWB at all

 

[Johnny75]

He's fine in a three (very lucky not to give away a goal on Saturday, mind)

He is awful in a two

He isn't remotely near good enough to base our entire strategy around him, especially when we have no functional RWB at all

Same reason Eric Dier doesn't play for Spurs.

 

[Elephant Pyjamas]

He's fine in a three (very lucky not to give away a goal on Saturday, mind)

He is awful in a two

He isn't remotely near good enough to base our entire strategy around him, especially when we have no functional RWB at all

Are we basing our entire strategy around him!?

 

[Johnny75]

Are we basing our entire strategy around him!?

He's probably a reason we're at 3atb rather than a 4.

But the biggest reason will be a coaching decision.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Are we basing our entire strategy around him!?

Why do you think we're playing three at the back.

It isn't because Gary O'Neil thinks Nelson Semedo is a brilliant right wing back.

And it hamstrings us, like the McGhee rubbish we saw on Saturday even if you pretend it's neither a symptom nor a problem.

 

[Del Woppio]

We're playing a back three because he (rightly) doesn't trust any of our centre backs in a 4. Also I guess given Kilman is probably the most 'valuable' of our defenders we've got to protect that by not playing him in a formation that shows him up to absolutely fucking wank

 

[Elephant Pyjamas]

We're generally better in 5 at the back though, RAN, Dawson, Kilman, Toti all much better in a 5. It's bizarre that you're pinning that on Kilman.

In fact the only member of the defence 4 suits is Semedo.

What's the problem with 5 anyway? It's served is well for years now, it suits us as a club and all the attempts to play with 4 have been futile. It did for Nuno too.

 

[Elephant Pyjamas]

Why do you think we're playing three at the back.

It isn't because Gary O'Neil thinks Nelson Semedo is a brilliant right wing back.

And it hamstrings us, like the McGhee rubbish we saw on Saturday even if you pretend it's neither a symptom nor a problem.

All attempts to go to a 4 have hamstrung us, under Nuno, Lage and GON.

I just don't understand your hard on for it.

Just a reminder as it seems to have been forgotten, we got 4 points from our last 2 games and playing with 5 has seen a huge upturn in form including wins against Spurs and Man City, but yeah let's cry about a formation that has seen us pitiful time and time again.

 

[Tony Towner]

You miss out going with a 4 under Lopetegui where in half a season we beat Liverpool, Chelsea and Villa, although they needed a lot of midfield protection.

Absolutely no reason why we couldn't play 433 or 4231 and still get the attacking output we have with the 352/343. I'd argue in games like Saturday it should be superior. We can't because the centre halves aren't good enough, a quality one shouldn't be "better" in a 3 if they are it's because they aren't good enough in a 2 and therefore a weakness. We didn't change formation to unlock attacking potential, we did it because we couldn't trust Dawson and particularly Kilman.

Every single team in the PL who are above us play with a back 4 as their base defence, that speaks volumes

 

[North Shropshire Lad]

I’m not massively hung up on 3,4 or 5 at the back but other than Nelson it’s fair to say I think 3/5 suits all of our defenders including Dawson.
However blaming our striker woes and the struggles of Silva and Sasa in particular on this formation is doing some very heavy lifting. I don’t think either of them are PL standard regardless of the 8, 9 or 10 behind them.

 

[Tony Towner]

However blaming our striker woes and the struggles of Silva and Sasa in particular on this formation is doing some very heavy lifting. I don’t think either of them are PL standard regardless of the 8, 9 or 10 behind them.

Literally nobody has

 

[Elephant Pyjamas]

You miss out going with a 4 under Lopetegui where in half a season we beat Liverpool, Chelsea and Villa, although they needed a lot of midfield protection.

And you miss out us getting smashed by Arsenal and Brighton and how dour so many of those games under Lop were.

Ultimately it doesn't matter what formation we play (to a point) it's about attacking intent, there's no reason why we can't be as attacking with 3/5 at the back as with 4.

But we know 5 suits our defenders better, other than Semedo so why push for 4 when there us such limited payoff and all previous incarnations have either been poor or seen limited success at best.

 

[Alan]

I still have to say that I think the “5atb is naturally defensive” thing is a smidge overblown. We just lack a CB who can break lines, so ours is defensive by default (and necessity, really).

 

[Tony Towner]

And you miss out us getting smashed by Arsenal and Brighton and how dour so many of those games under Lop were.

Ultimately it doesn't matter what formation we play (to a point) it's about attacking intent, there's no reason why we can't be as attacking with 3/5 at the back as with 4.

But we know 5 suits our defenders better, other than Semedo so why push for 4 when there us such limited payoff and all previous incarnations have either been poor or seen limited success at best.

The season was over when we lost those games, but all that shows is the defenders aren't good enough, coupled with others dialling it in.

It does matter because one of your primary attacking outlets becomes your wing backs, Semedo is awful offensively, Bueno has also been this season and RAN is inconsistent, easy on the eye, but no goals and no assists. So you are playing a formation because it "suits" your centre halves. So you either change them to mean you don't have to, or you change your wing backs to make it effective. What we have now is a system that compromises us offensively to compensate for the weaknesses at the other end of the pitch. Apart from situations like Saturday I don't blame GON for playing the way we do, he only has the players available he does, but it absolutely shouldn't be the blueprint for the future.

 

[Templeton Peck]

We already have the players for 4231. 343 doesn't suit Semedo and we don't quite have the attacking players to make 3 up top work effectively. It should be easier to sign the 1 or 2 CBs needed for 4 at the back than it would be to sign a proper RWB, a striker and maybe a wide forward too.

 

[Tony Towner]

I still have to say that I think the “5atb is naturally defensive” thing is a smidge overblown. We just lack a CB who can break lines, so ours is defensive by default (and necessity, really).

It doesn't have to be, but as you point out unless Kilman goes on one of his charges, it's a flat 3 and the RWB kills most attacks that come his way, so for us with current personnel it isn't offensive for sure

 

[Tony Towner]

We already have the players for 4231. 343 doesn't suit Semedo and we don't quite have the attacking players to make 3 up top work effectively. It should be easier to sign the 1 or 2 CBs needed for 4 at the back than it would be to sign a proper RWB, a striker and maybe a wide forward too.

The problem is the first player you are dropping is Kilman and I don't see it happening. Really we need 2 as we shouldn't go into next season with Dawson as Plan A at 34

 

[MARKakaJIM]

I still have to say that I think the “5atb is naturally defensive” thing is a smidge overblown. We just lack a CB who can break lines, so ours is defensive by default (and necessity, really).

Definitely far bigger factors at play than an arbitrary sequence of numbers on a piece of paper before kick off in determining a teams overall mentality.

The good ol' 442 favoured by the likes of Allardyce and Pulis was defensive as fuck and dull as you like despite the back your, Simeone has a jazzier version with Atletico. Then pretty sure Bielsa used a back three in his batshit mental Chile team, even had Medel anchoring that defence from memory!

Think the biggest thing with Wolves playing the three centre halves in recent year has been the nature of the midfielders that have played with them, generally all tend to be more defensive minded so you end up with a big lump of your team just clogging up the centre of the pitch. Then you become massively reliant on your attacking players to do something special against greater numbers, with a bit of wingback support, to give you anything going forwards. Compare they to Juventus' side with Chiellini, Bonucci and Barzagli across the back where you had Pirlo nominally screening them because he couldn't run with Pogba and Vidal just doing pretty much whatever the fuck they wanted. Their wingbacks were more like wingers then too, particularly Cuadrado.

Whatever formation you line up in you've got to have a plan to do something your opponent isn't going to like, do something that unsettles them and try to grab the initiative. Watching Villa against Arsenal the other day, the former played a lot of football deep in their own half which appears negative at face value but they were drawing Arsenal out to create spaces for Watkins to drop into and that got them into great positions time and time again. They were playing on the back foot to large extents but with composure and then striking with conviction when those pockets opened up to go more direct. Proper sucker punch job that Arsenal never really got to grips with.

Think that conviction is a big thing, you've got to believe in what you're doing and try to really force your plan onto the game. You look at the goal in that game and the way Bailey drove with the ball, forcing the defender back towards his own goal, he forced the issue and created a problem for Arsenal. Then you look at someone like Semedo who gets countless opportunities to drive into space down the flank but when does he ever drive anyone back like that? At best he heads for the corner flag, more often than not he just stops all together and lets opponents regroup. Struggle to think of anyone with his level of experience and exposure to the top level who plays in such a meek and passive way.

That's the biggest thing to change for me, regardless of a back three or four, just be more forceful, impose yourselves on the game and carry out your plan with some conviction.

 

[North Shropshire Lad]

Literally nobody has

Okay…

No one has mentioned that Sasa isn’t shit, it the system that he’s not suited to?