The Incoming Transfers Everywhere Thread: Summer 2023

[Deutsch Wolf]

Surely it's risk mitigation. We don't need to sell Kilman so why expose yourself unnecessarily. Likewise, if we're after a CB and we sell Kilman it weakens our negotiating position because we sold one of our *first choice CBs

No-one is ramping up their price for someone because we sold Kilman, it doesn't work like that.

If Man Utd decided they wanted Sa do you think we'd add £10m to the price because it looks like de Gea is going on a free?

 

[Elephant Pyjamas]

No-one is ramping up their price for someone because we sold Kilman, it doesn't work like that.

If Man Utd decided they wanted Sa do you think we'd add £10m to the price because it looks like de Gea is going on a free?

Yes.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

We absolutely would not, that's cloud cuckoo land.

Same as Napoli aren't going to be panicked into making a bigger bid if we offer a pointless new deal to a player who already has three years left!

 

[Johnny75]

Yes.

Do you want to give an example of when this has ever happened in football?

 

[Elephant Pyjamas]

So you don't think the percieved desperation of the buying or selling club effects valuation?

It's basic economics.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Not nearly two months before the window closes, it's madness.

In the hypothetical Sa example Man Utd would just go somewhere else and we get nothing while being stuck with a keeper that I suspect the manager isn't sold on, which would be incredibly stupid on our part.

 

[Elephant Pyjamas]

Do you want to give an example of when this has ever happened in football?

When we bought Foley and Edwards from Luton.

 

[Elephant Pyjamas]

So you don't think the percieved desperation of the buying or selling club effects valuation?

It's basic economics.

If either of you don't think this is true then there isn't much else I can say.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

When we bought Foley and Edwards from Luton.

Eh?

We just bought Foley, that was a standard deal at a standard price (turned out to be a good one). The bid for Edwards - months later - got accepted immediately because they were in administration, administrators are duty bound to sell whatever they can and footballing merit doesn't come into it.

How is any of this relevant here?

 

[AndyWolves]

Sorry Andy that's rubbish. Kilman is not the only CB in the world, probably not even in the top 500.

There are plenty of better players so selling Kilman tomorrow doesn't change our position in the slightest as we were clearly after a CB anyway.

I don't disagree that there are better players than Kilman.

We clearly need a CB, we'd need one even more if Kilman goes, and the impact to us if we don't get one increases.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

I don't disagree that there are better players than Kilman.

We clearly need a CB, we'd need one even more if Kilman goes, and the impact to us if we don't get one increases.

Again I'd agree with you if this were the 25th of August (this is why we didn't get Dawson originally). But it's early July.

 

[AndyWolves]

Again I'd agree with you if this were the 25th of August (this is why we didn't get Dawson originally). But it's early July.

Why take the risk though? Transfers can fall through for any reason.

The mitigation is simply to hang onto Kilman for a bit longer.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

You think we can't sign someone better, armed with £30m+, in nearly two months? If that's the case then we may as well pack up now.

Napoli aren't going to wait forever and we all think it's a mental bid, we won't get another one.

 

[Del Woppio]

If our scouts can't come up with a better defender than Kilman with 6-7 weeks and £20m to play with them they're not worth a piss.

If Fosun are demanding a negative net spend then turning down that sort of money for a very replaceable player is fucking mental.

 

[The Bear]

I just don't understand their thinking. Every player has their price, no matter how much you want to keep them. If they are suggesting that he is worth more than £30m at the age of 26 then they're nuts.

You can understand Collins going for £20m+ if someone is daft enough to pay it as he's still young, but Kilman is hardly the finished article or even one of the best defenders in the league, either on the eye or by the stats.

 

[AndyWolves]

You think we can't sign someone better, armed with £30m+, in nearly two months? If that's the case then we may as well pack up now.

Napoli aren't going to wait forever and we all think it's a mental bid, we won't get another one.

Nope, I haven't said that.

It's for the club to decide if they think it introduces more risk / cost into the acquisition of 1 or 2 CBs, and whether that's higher / more impactful than the risk of Napoli walking away. And I can understand why they might think that way.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

There's no way clubs are charging us more, this far out from the close of the window, if we sell Kilman. It's the realm of fantasy.

EP's best example was a Championship club in administration 15-16 years ago FFS.

 

[Elephant Pyjamas]

EP's best example was a Championship club in administration 15-16 years ago FFS.

Chill out man.

Pretty much any time a transfer is classed as a "panic buy" it's because the buying club is desperate and/or has lots of money to spend and the selling club is aware of those factors.

You and Johnny can tag team me all you like but if you think the value isn't effected by the desperation of the buyer or seller then you're talking pure unadulterated bollocks.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

It doesn't happen though, not at this stage, you can't and won't find one credible example. Towards the end of a window then perhaps yes.

 

[AndyWolves]

As it stands, we could, theoretically, walk away from a deal involving a CB. As soon as Kilman goes we can't.