The 2014/15 Promotion Push Run-In Thread

[pr0sl0]

Averages don't take the quality of the opposition in the last 5 games into account though, for instance Bournemouth have 5 games against teams with nothing to play for which gives them a big advantage, Boro and ourselves have 2 games against teams still going for promotion etc. I can see us getting another 10 points, but probably needing to win our last 3 to do it.

Yeah, absolutely - as I said, the fact that so many of the top eight have still to play each other in the last five games makes form tables somewhat moot. As much as it's all to play for, some of the few certainties that we can point to include the fact that it's almost completely unlikely that we'll finish on the same points as Boro, for example.

I felt we'd probably get 10 points from our last six games and finish fifth or sixth, which is slightly worse than our current form, but that's because I think we'll lose to Boro. Love to be proved wrong, though.

 

[Tyrannosaurus Dan]

If you go back to the start of the PL era (as we all know that is when football began) then no team has needed more than 76 points to finish 6th. I appreciate it could be a little higher this year as there are no teams running away with the division but I still think 79 points should do it as a worst case scenario. That's 8 points from our last 5 games which given our current form should be achievable. As a Wolves fan I take nothing for granted though!

 

[pr0sl0]

Every one of the eight teams in the mix will be thinking the same thing, and realistically the reason why more than 76 won't be necessary - despite what form may imply - is those matches where they play against each other.

Instructive to look at League One last year, too, when we thought we'd need more than 90 points or so to get into the playoffs, but things settled down by the end. Recurring statistical outcomes tend to be reliable, by definition.

 

[Trips]

Have looked through the final fixtures and ended up with the following table. I've got 79 as being enough for play-offs, realistically though if we can get to 80 I'd be fairly certain we'd make it. 3 more wins then, the Ipswich game at home is going to be massive I think, two tough away games at Blouse and Boro coming before it, we'll need to win that one.

Norwich - 89
Watford - 87
-----------------
Bournemouth - 86
Middlesbrough - 85
Derby - 84
Wolves - 81
------------------
Brentford - 78
Ipswich - 76

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Joint top scorers in the division over the last 10 games as well.

 

[DirkHartog]

I think we are fighting for that last spot with Brentford and Ipswich.

Bournemouth should run away with the league now. Watford has an easy draw coming up and so does Derby and Norwich. Middlesbrough are interesting because their matches against Norwich and Wolves will likely shape much of table as anything else will. We want them to lose against Norwich and us but their other matches are all easy, so can't see us leapfrogging them either unless we go a super run, in which case all this is irrelevant.

So leaves Brentford and Ipswich. Derby match will be hard for them to win, and either way the fixtures open up for both teams after that, Derby don't play anyone higher that Huddersfield. Ipswich has the worse form and the worst draw of the top 8, so I can't see them winning more than the others, but as we have to play them, they can just as easily leapfrog back into the 6, a bit of a wildcard. So we need to keep matching whatever Brentford does I think, in order to get that last playoff place. A face off between the two promoted last season to fight for promotion again. New league position rivalry?

Really, I think our next 3 matches will be as pivotal as the last two where the expectation of winning will create a different type of pressure. Might squeeze in with 78 points but I'd say 80 will be needed to be sure.

 

[Freddeno]

Bad thing we have so bad goaldiff(compared to top 5 teams) when its so tight in the table

 

[Trips]

Bad thing we have so bad goaldiff(compared to top 5 teams) when its so tight in the table

We're not fighting with the Top 4 presently though. Derby outgun us on GD, but compared to Brentford and Ipswich we're fine. Only 2 goals worse off, easily turned around, especially with us playing Ipswich soon.

 

[Freddeno]

We're not fighting with the Top 4 presently though. Derby outgun us on GD, but compared to Brentford and Ipswich we're fine. Only 2 goals worse off, easily turned around, especially with us playing Ipswich soon.

We are just a point or two off those teams, so clearly we are fighting with them!?

 

[Kenny]

We are just a point or two off those teams, so clearly we are fighting with them!?

4, 5 & 6 points.

We can drag Boro towards us by winning our next 2 games. In reality, we are fighting Derby, Ipswich & Brentford and the top 4 shouldn't be troubled by us in the final few weeks of the season

 

[jd1981]

Left it to late for push on the top 2 even if we won every game I still think we may fall short.

 

[FrankMunro-371]

How many more points will we need to make the play offs? Nine maybe.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Yeah, 86 won't be enough for top two. If we had another five games on top of what we have then I'd back us.

 

[Trips]

How many more points will we need to make the play offs? Nine maybe.

If I was offered 9 points from the last 5 games now I'd take it. 80 should easily be enough for 6th. Think that 78/79 will be enough for us provided 3 of those are against Ipswich, we can't afford to lose that one.

 

[jd1981]

This is when you start looking at what points we dropped and where we could be, ie Millwall away, Reading away and Rotheram away.

 

[FrankMunro-371]

This is when you start looking at what points we dropped and where we could be, ie Millwall away, Reading away and Rotheram away.

True, but I would imagine most teams will rue missed opportunities at some stage of the season.

 

[Freddeno]

It is the same for all teams and im sure team higher up than us will lose to much lesser teams still

 

[jd1981]

True, but I would imagine most teams will rue missed opportunities at some stage of the season.

True and you can look at games where we have had some luck ie the Derby game few weeks ago.
If we get 80 pts and don't make the top 6 we can count ourselves very unlucky. If we are still 6th going into the last two matches I can't see us dropping out.

 

[Tony Towner]

I'm not sure I agree. Points are only relevant to the season in question, comparing to other seasons is pointless as it doesn't take the relative strength of the rest of the league in any given season into account. Someone may well finish 7th with 80 odd points, they won't be unlucky, they will finish where they deserve to, in the same way as Peterborough going down on 53 points wasn't unlucky.

Reminds me of when people claimed we did better in our second Prem season because we got more points than the first even though we finished lower in the table.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

We did play better football, especially at home. We were horrific to watch in 2009/10.