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REFERENDUM RESULTS AND DISCUSSION THREAD

Johnny75 said:
Why would an election happen?

There's just no appetite for it and Corbyn would lose anyway as he's a terrible leader just hitting his 70th year.
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Same reason May called one..for a bigger majority. If Johnson becomes PM and goes after a no deal Brexit, Parliament will stop him, he either accepts that or calls an election to change the maths in parliament. I can’t see the EU suddenly saying they are ready to do a different deal to replace May’s. The problems in Parliament won’t go away just because there’s a new PM...if anything, the problems are likely to get worse - even some of the most Brexit Labour MPs (except Farage’s bestie Kate Hoey) will baulk at facilitating something dreamt up by the likes of Johnson, Raab and Gove.
 
I'm not sure the Tories would be daft enough to call an election on the scenario you've laid out. I don't think they'll choose Johnson I think they'll go with Gove and that'll lead to a softer Brexit where more MP's ofboth hue will vote for.
 
Johnny75 said:
I'm not sure the Tories would be daft enough to call an election on the scenario you've laid out. I don't think they'll choose Johnson I think they'll go with Gove and that'll lead to a softer Brexit where more MP's ofboth hue will vote for.
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I am fairly sure none of the contenders believe they could have an election campaign as disastrous as May’s. A “softer” Brexit requires at least 50, maybe more, votes from elsewhere in parliament because the ERG are not going to agree anything but no deal now. The Lib Dems, SNP, PC, Tinge and the Green aren’t going to countenance any sort of Brexit now, let alone a soft one. The parliamentary numbers were hard enough for May, they will be even harder for her successor.
 
I don’t think Gove will get it - he has a massive trust issue. If Boris makes the final two, he’ll win but there will be a concerted campaign to try and ensure he doesn’t make the top two.
 
Top 2 in terms of MP support at the moment are Gove and Raab accordingly to Guido, although that only accounts for about 1/3 of MP's. There's a view that there is a silent Boris rump out there, but we'll see.

Likelihood is that there will be one No Deal and one softer option on the membership ballot paper at the end, at some point Gove will have to come off the fence which isn't in his interest at the moment as the No Dealer whoever he is (it will be a man) will win with the membership.
 
Tory MPs think Boris is a bellend.

Its entirely possible that he doesnt make the final 2....Meaning that the Tory membership (who love him) will go fucking mental.

So you end up with a Tory leader who is liked by the MPs but hated by the members, and a Labour leader who is hated by his MPs but supported by the members.



What was it Tusk said...'Please do not waste this time'....?
 
You’d imagine the Raab/boris lot will join up when there’s only one of them left

And Vis is right that Tory MP’s did think he was a bellend - but after he lost out 3 years ago, he should have realised that he needs their votes so should have been working hard for three years to be a bit more liked.

Probably easier said than done, but if he doesn’t get in this time, he should give it up as a bad job.
 
September 2018: Labour conference sets Brexit policy including option of second vote.

January 2019: Labour votes 3 times to support a public vote in Parliament

MSM, May 2019: “Labour shifts policy to support public vote as a result of EU election disaster!!”
 
Whatever people's reason for voting leave originally, Brexit is now very much a right-wing project in a political sense. Farage has, once again, stolen the Tories' clothes and they will be forced to tack to the right to counter him. Which leaves Labour with a very clear direction as far as I can see. They need to be unambiguously against whatever Farage and the ERG are for, even if that costs them their leave voters. I don't think a promise of a 2nd ref, stupid idea that it is anyway, is going to be enough.
 
Templeton Peck said:
September 2018: Labour conference sets Brexit policy including option of second vote.

January 2019: Labour votes 3 times to support a public vote in Parliament

MSM, May 2019: “Labour shifts policy to support public vote as a result of EU election disaster!!”
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The general public shouldnt have to wade through the (painfully worded) composite motion at the conference, or wade through out of god knows how many, often contradictory, motions in parliament.

Why has Corbyn been so unwilling to simply say 'Labour will campaign for a confirmatory vote on any deal, and will campaign for Remain to be an option in that vote.'

Labour has hidden behind weasel words like 'retain the option of' or 'keep it on the table', or 'we might support a vote but want a GE first', with no indication of when, if ever, that first option will be considered dead.
 
Visage said:
The general public shouldnt have to wade through the (painfully worded) composite motion at the conference, or wade through out of god knows how many, often contradictory, motions in parliament.

Why has Corbyn been so unwilling to simply say 'Labour will campaign for a confirmatory vote on any deal, and will campaign for Remain to be an option in that vote.'

Labour has hidden behind weasel words like 'retain the option of' or 'keep it on the table', or 'we might support a vote but want a GE first', with no indication of when, if ever, that first option will be considered dead.
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It's obvious isn't it? Because he didn't want to ostracise Labour voters who voted leave.
 
Elephant Pyjamas said:
It's obvious isn't it? Because he didn't want to ostracise Labour voters who voted leave.
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So instead he ostracised those who want to remain, which a) are more numerous and b) more in tune with Labour values.
 
Visage said:
So instead he ostracised those who want to remain, which a) are more numerous and b) more in tune with Labour values.
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Well that depends if you draw your conclusions from EU elections where turnout was around 30% on a single issue, or whether you look at GE polling which has had Labour leading for quite a few weeks now.

So far their strategy has seen the PM forced out and them leading in polls, hardly a disaster is it?

Now is the time to turn the screw though.
 
Elephant Pyjamas said:
Well that depends if you draw your conclusions from EU elections where turnout was around 30% on a single issue, or whether you look at GE polling which has had Labour leading for quite a few weeks now.

So far their strategy has seen the PM forced out and them leading in polls, hardly a disaster is it?

Now is the time to turn the screw though.
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I think they should have gone for a vote of no confidence just before she resigned and forced her party to back her...
 
Nope, that's the Tories' own internal leadership rules.

A motion against the Government can be called at any time.
 
It's odd how Labours antisemitism backlog is blamed on the number of cases and the need to investigate thoroughly yet when they want to they can turn around a case in 48h.
 
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