REFERENDUM RESULTS AND DISCUSSION THREAD

[Tredman]

Yes it's stupid. Mark my words there will be a deal. There has been so much dick waving posturings complaining, denial and bull shit that it has now become impossible to see fact from fear. Please feel free to throw this back at me but here is my quote.
THERE WILL BE A DEAL WHEN WE LEAVE THE EU

I think there will be a deal too, but saying it will be fine if there isn't really is stupid.

Imo what will happen is a deal which means pretty much the whole UK stays in the customs union indefinitely, it's the only option which means we aren't royally screwed at this stage. That does make the whole thing pointless though.

 

[leedswolf]

Yes it's stupid. Mark my words there will be a deal. There has been so much dick waving posturings complaining, denial and bull shit that it has now become impossible to see fact from fear. Please feel free to throw this back at me but here is my quote.
THERE WILL BE A DEAL WHEN WE LEAVE THE EU

You ARE Liam Fox and I claim my prize.

 

[leedswolf]

I think there will be a deal too, but saying it will be fine if there isn't really is stupid.

Imo what will happen is a deal which means pretty much the whole UK stays in the customs union indefinitely, it's the only option which means we aren't royally screwed at this stage. That does make the whole thing pointless though.

We still have to reach an agreement on Ireland. If we don't then the rest can't happen.

 

[Tredman]

We still have to reach an agreement on Ireland. If we don't then the rest can't happen.

If we agree the whole UK stays in the customs union then the Irish border stays as it is.

 

[Penk Wolf]

I think you and Leeds are right. It is a reversion because SOMETHING has to happen. So I guess import and export tariffs everywhere. Not ideal, and our goods become very expensive to our export markets, which will be damaging, but at least trade still exists I guess.

And imports increasing in price, which will cost the man on the street with inflation going up.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

If we agree the whole UK stays in the customs union then the Irish border stays as it is.

And the government collapses because the arch Brexiteers won't put up with that.

The simple issue with NI is this

Hard Border = breach of Good Friday and an invite for the IRA and INLA to re-arm
Northern Ireland treated differently to the rest of the UK = breach of Good Friday and an invite for the UVF and UDA to re-arm.

Good luck squaring that circle.

 

[Tredman]

And the government collapses because the arch Brexiteers won't put up with that.

The simple issue with NI is this

Hard Border = breach of Good Friday and an invite for the IRA and INLA to re-arm
Northern Ireland treated differently to the rest of the UK = breach of Good Friday and an invite for the UVF and UDA to re-arm.

Good luck squaring that circle.

There's plenty of labour MPs who'd support a deal to keep UK in customs union.

 

[leedswolf]

International companies will be looking long term. We have import tariffs, they'll flood our markets with cheaper unit prices to be ultra-competitive. This will subsequently undermine our own producers which will subsequently make us more dependent on the exporters who then ramp up the unit cost.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

It wouldn't get to parliament because Rees-Mogg and co will destroy May before that idea got to the table.

 

[Penk Wolf]

International companies will be looking long term. We have import tariffs, they'll flood our markets with cheaper unit prices to be ultra-competitive. This will subsequently undermine our own producers which will subsequently make us more dependent on the exporters who then ramp up the unit cost.

I guess we’ll offer zero tariff on a lot of the goods that are important too?

 

[leedswolf]

I guess we’ll offer zero tariff on a lot of the goods that are important too?

Food being the most likely. The reckoning is that our Agri/Food industry will be targetted by exporters.

Oh and any imports subject to WTO will not be subject to the same stringent regulations imposed by the EU which guarentees the integrity of the products. Cue more shit steel from China.

 

[Johnny75]

There just won't be an agreement if we get to March 29 with the DUP propping up the government. And then any agreement over NI (should that bar be jumped) needs approval by all EU countries and Ireland cannot agree to screwing the Good Friday Agreement. I really don't see an easy way to any form of agreement at all.

It's going to be cold turkey.

I think the DUP will be thrown on the fire for the deal as Theresa gives up power for a snap general election. I don't think the EU want a no deal either but may well do it to make a point of nobody leaves the EU without pain.

 

[Johnny75]

It wouldn't get to parliament because Rees-Mogg and co will destroy May before that idea got to the table.

I think it'll be a free vote with Labour MP's wanting to stay in the customs union. It's a bit like a sticking plaster on an amputation but it gives people time to adjust.

 

[leedswolf]

I think it'll be a free vote with Labour MP's wanting to stay in the customs union. It's a bit like a sticking plaster on an amputation but it gives people time to adjust.

That would make sense with an agreed transition timetable in place. That should allow the breathing space needed to negotiate trade deals for example.

 

[Penk Wolf]

Oh and any imports subject to WTO will not be subject to the same stringent regulations imposed by the EU which guarentees the integrity of the products. Cue more shit steel from China.

From my experience of late, test houses in Europe are pretty dodgy anyway.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

There's a reason why we do most of our testing in-house (which I am glad about as it is my job!!).

 

[Tredman]

From my experience of late, test houses in Europe are pretty dodgy anyway.

Massive generalisation, most of the bigger UK test houses are European owned.

 

[Penk Wolf]

Massive generalisation, most of the bigger UK test houses are European owned.

Possibly, although the items we’ve been testing of late have reg 10 certs from Luxembourg, Spain and Germany yet when we’ve sent the same product to MIRA (Yeah, yeah, Japanese owned) they’ve failed miserably.

 

[visage]

I think you and Leeds are right. It is a reversion because SOMETHING has to happen. So I guess import and export tariffs everywhere. Not ideal, and our goods become very expensive to our export markets, which will be damaging, but at least trade still exists I guess.

We're free to set whatever tariffs we want under WTO rules. So we could go zero percent. But then domestic producers would get destroyed by cheap imports. And theres also the problem of the 'Most favoured nation' rule, which states that for any product, the global tariff is equal to the best tariff.

 

[Tredman]

Spot on:
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/john-major-attacks-brexiteers-1-5739534
From John Major too