REFERENDUM RESULTS AND DISCUSSION THREAD

[leedswolf]

Importing more from the rest of the World than we do from the EU, long term, I think as a Country, if we can put ourselves in a similar position to Australia then WTA won't be a bad thing.

It's pretty encouraging that May has had to soften on immigration.

As in Australia trading with it's neighbours?

 

[Penk Wolf]

If we have a soft Brexit, ie inside the customs union, we couldn't negotiate our own free trade deals.

I wasn't aware the terms for soft Brexit had already been sorted.

 

[AndyWolves]

What's to stop the EU coming up with regulations which only impact goods coming from the UK? Say they start to bring in bullshit regulations which aren't blatantly anti-UK but have a negative affect in us, at least now we get a say. In the future we'll just have to take it

 

[Tredman]

I wasn't aware the terms for soft Brexit had already been sorted.

What is q soft Brexit if it doesn't involve at least being in the customs union - the definition of hard brexit was leaving the single market and customs union, so...?

 

[Penk Wolf]

As in Australia trading with it's neighbours?

Yes.

 

[Penk Wolf]

What is q soft Brexit if it doesn't involve at least being in the customs union - the definition of hard brexit was leaving the single market and customs union, so...?

It was also closing borders, etc. Maybe we need to create a softer than hard or harder than soft Brexit.

 

[AndyWolves]

The thing we have in our favour is that we're a net importer to the EU as a whole. So it's in the interest of the EU to keep that trade open, however, at an individual country level the % of the economy which is made up of exports to the UK is a lot less. Except maybe Germany, who seem to love selling us stuff - I suspect most of that is overpriced beer & sausages at German Xmas markets!

 

[MARKakaJIM]

The thing we have in our favour is that we're a net importer to the EU as a whole. So it's in the interest of the EU to keep that trade open, however, at an individual country level the % of the economy which is made up of exports to the UK is a lot less. Except maybe Germany, who seem to love selling us stuff - I suspect most of that is overpriced beer & sausages at German Xmas markets!

It's not like these sales become impossible when the UK leaves the EU though is it? They'll just become more expensive when they're no longer trading freely.

If I was a big German car manufacturer I don't think I'd be massively concerned, you'd think the brand power of the likes of BMW, Audi, etc. would be strong enough to still gain sales even if the prices end up increasing, it's like there are going to be many UK made alternatives to undercut them anyway is it?

 

[Penk Wolf]

It's not like these sales become impossible when the UK leaves the EU though is it? They'll just become more expensive when they're no longer trading freely.

If I was a big German car manufacturer I don't think I'd be massively concerned, you'd think the brand power of the likes of BMW, Audi, etc. would be strong enough to still gain sales even if the prices end up increasing, it's like there are going to be many UK made alternatives to undercut them anyway is it?

I guess JLR are the only one that jumps out at you.

 

[Stan Hullis]

The quicker we are all driving around in the F-Pace the better IMO.

 

[Penk Wolf]

And having a quick read, would it end up cheaper to buy a merc or a BMW from America?

 

[So Long Architect]

I don't really know anything about trade deals.

Did we not have already deals in place with non-EU countries as part of the EU - I presume so as the EU doesn't only trade with itself.
I can't see how we can expect to get better deals than the ones that were negotiated as part of the world's largest trading bloc.

 

[Johnny75]

It's not like these sales become impossible when the UK leaves the EU though is it? They'll just become more expensive when they're no longer trading freely.

If I was a big German car manufacturer I don't think I'd be massively concerned, you'd think the brand power of the likes of BMW, Audi, etc. would be strong enough to still gain sales even if the prices end up increasing, it's like there are going to be many UK made alternatives to undercut them anyway is it?

The car thing is an odd one. In Denmark the tax on cars is 180% making the average BMW $80,000 so BMW aren't going there in a hurry and other places in Europe also have their own rules on car taxes and the markets are unlikely to change in Spain, France or Italy. That gives the UK a strong position in negotiating as it isn't just the car brands but the variety of tiers and ancillary services that are produced from this including infrastructure investment in the old Eastern Bloc countries. A tax on those cars will make a gap in the market JLR will walk through (as they are already looking at moving into BMW and Merc's market share already) and that doesn't take into account the rise of the Japanese and Chinese car brands that will also fill that void. The Germans (and Italians) won't allow their government to make that happen so something will have to be done.

You've also got car plants in Northern Spain for Ford and I'm not sure they will fare to well when the Yanks lose an extra 20% off their profits.

 

[MARKakaJIM]

I guess JLR are the only one that jumps out at you.

Potentially, but if they're importing a lot of parts from the EU then they could see their prices rise just as much. Wouldn't really be an alternative for all those buying the likes of Peugeot, Citroen, Renault, Seat, VW, Skoda, etc. would they? Then you'd probably be looking at Toyota and Nissan picking up the slack if they keep their UK factories open but again if they're buying parts from the EU they could be affected in the same way as JLR.

 

[Penk Wolf]

I don't really know anything about trade deals.

Did we not have already deals in place with non-EU countries as part of the EU - I presume so as the EU doesn't only trade with itself.
I can't see how we can expect to get better deals than the ones that were negotiated as part of the world's largest trading bloc.

The way I see it, the EU tries to keep everything within itself and are not really open to doing deals. A single country will be only interested in what is best for itself. Also you'll need 28 countries to agree to the deal, which will be a lot harder than 1 on 1.

Take the US for example, if it thought it could pick up 25% of our import market then the loss from import duty will be out weighed by the additional revenue from corporation tax and reduction in unemployment.

 

[Johnny75]

Potentially, but if they're importing a lot of parts from the EU then they could see their prices rise just as much. Wouldn't really be an alternative for all those buying the likes of Peugeot, Citroen, Renault, Seat, VW, Skoda, etc. would they? Then you'd probably be looking at Toyota and Nissan picking up the slack if they keep their UK factories open but again if they're buying parts from the EU they could be affected in the same way as JLR.

To my knowledge JLR don't import much from the EU, the same with Toyota, Nissan and the like. The Eastern Bloc countries would lose out to China or India.

 

[Penk Wolf]

Potentially, but if they're importing a lot of parts from the EU then they could see their prices rise just as much. Wouldn't really be an alternative for all those buying the likes of Peugeot, Citroen, Renault, Seat, VW, Skoda, etc. would they? Then you'd probably be looking at Toyota and Nissan picking up the slack if they keep their UK factories open but again if they're buying parts from the EU they could be affected in the same way as JLR.

You've got Ford too.

 

[Johnny75]

You've got Ford too.

And General motors. There's the Chinese SAIC (even though they've closed down Longbridge) too.

 

[MARKakaJIM]

So JLR look well placed at the moment to clean up at the luxury end of the market. Ford, Toyota, Nissan could take the lower end if they stick around, but that all hinges on whether their factories are worthwhile staying in the UK post-brexit when they lose the benefit of supplying all of the EU tariff free, if they decided to upsticks to somewhere on the mainland then that could see them in the same position as the EU manufacturers.

 

[Penk Wolf]

So JLR look well placed at the moment to clean up at the luxury end of the market. Ford, Toyota, Nissan could take the lower end if they stick around, but that all hinges on whether their factories are worthwhile staying in the UK post-brexit when they lose the benefit of supplying all of the EU tariff free, if they decided to upsticks to somewhere on the mainland then that could see them in the same position as the EU manufacturers.

Ford sales to the EU is less than it is to the UK.