REFERENDUM RESULTS AND DISCUSSION THREAD

[Tony Towner]

As goes the £ it is swings and roundabouts. There are benefits of a weaker £. As it is at much the same level as it was in 2014 it suggests the predicted apocalypse didn't occur and the scaremongering was just that (as alluded to by the BoE)

And the £ vs Dollar 16% depreciation, taking it to its lowest level in over 30 years? As a net importer that has to be a bad thing for more people that it is a good one.

 

[Trips]

As goes the £ it is swings and roundabouts. There are benefits of a weaker £. As it is at much the same level as it was in 2014 it suggests the predicted apocalypse didn't occur and the scaremongering was just that (as alluded to by the BoE)

As Tony pointed out forecasts for the economy pre-Brexit were based on us triggering Article 50 straight away. We still haven't triggered it, and are still 2 years away from exiting the EU, so the "apocalypse" may yet still occur. It may well end up being scaremongering, but we don't know for certain yet.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

There are loads of credible scenarios where things get much, much worse for the UK. Of course none of them might happen but they're all plausible, backed up as they are by actual historical data and economic theory.

There are virtually no credible scenarios where people can point to specific examples of how we will be likely to be better off. Just vagaries about sovereignty and the like. There isn't even a hypothesis to point to.

 

[Papper]

It's the same argument though isn't it? The value of what they sell to us is more than we sell to them, but it fails to appreciate the relative percentage values and therefore impact of this. From my skim reading I couldn't see what "new markets" are going to be developed in the UK because of us leaving the EU.

If you artificially raise prices through protectionism the market is not entirely free. New markets both globally and domestic will emerge. All well and good if the EU was a hive of economic prosperity (But it isn't)

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2012/jul/27/eu-trade-reforms-developing-countries


Of course, this is all hypothetical. Even if every single British voter, MP and minister agreed that we ought to raise barriers to the import of Chinese steel, we would not be allowed to – trade policy is a power we have given away to the European Union.

http://www.cityam.com/238375/protec...r-banning-parliament-from-even-considering-it

 

[thehistorymakers]

There are loads of credible scenarios where things get much, much worse for the UK. Of course none of them might happen but they're all plausible, backed up as they are by actual historical data and economic theory.

There are virtually no credible scenarios where people can point to specific examples of how we will be likely to be better off. Just vagaries about sovereignty and the like. There isn't even a hypothesis to point to.

There were load of credible sources that were saying that the EU is in dire straights. Crippling debt, austerity, mass unemployment ect. There are many well known economists that say that the EU is debt ridden and will not be able to carry on as it is. I have yet to hear a remain voter talk about this. All they seem to care about is running the UK down. Where in the goverment ( propaganda ) leaflet, does it say anything about the UK being a trillion of debt? Yes a trillion in debt and in the EU. It is a bit rich keep talking how bad things will be with Brexit, without ever mentioning the Trillion debt, whilst in the EU, from anyone in the leave campaign.
No remainer could equate or dare mention we have 4 million UK workers that are living below the poverty line, whilst we are in EU. If remain voters had of, maybe we would take notice of their incessant running the UK down,when talking about the future, which is just guess work and at the same time not standing up to be counted and talking about the UK poverty and debt, whilst we are in the EU.

 

[Papper]

As Tony pointed out forecasts for the economy pre-Brexit were based on us triggering Article 50 straight away. We still haven't triggered it, and are still 2 years away from exiting the EU, so the "apocalypse" may yet still occur. It may well end up being scaremongering, but we don't know for certain yet.

I would be concerned if we were prospering within the EU but the Union is an unmitigated economic disaster. Are we really that dependant on the EU? While I agree with Deutschy that is no real hypothesis, base economics suggest that a free market, one where we can bargain on our strengths (we are a wealthy country when you put it in context) cannot be any worse but potentially better than what exists now. There is nothing to suggest that globally there is a lack of confidence in us and the revised economic forecasts (even short term) are positive signs. I don't share the doom and gloom.

 

[Tony Towner]

There were load of credible sources that were saying that the EU is in dire straights. Crippling debt, austerity, mass unemployment ect. There are many well known economists that say that the EU is debt ridden and will not be able to carry on as it is. I have yet to hear a remain voter talk about this. All they seem to care about is running the UK down. Where in the goverment ( propaganda ) leaflet, does it say anything about the UK being a trillion of debt? Yes a trillion in debt and in the EU. It is a bit rich keep talking how bad things will be with Brexit, without ever mentioning the Trillion debt, whilst in the EU, from anyone in the leave campaign.
No remainer could equate or dare mention we have 4 million UK workers that are living below the poverty line, whilst we are in EU. If remain voters had of, maybe we would take notice of their incessant running the UK down,when talking about the future, which is just guess work and at the same time not standing up to be counted and talking about the UK poverty and debt, whilst we are in the EU.

If those things had any correlation to being in the EU then perhaps people may have mentioned them. Austerity for example was the Government's response on how to reduce the debt that the previous Labour Government had run up bailing the country out of a global financial crisis. Now I think it was a barbaric policy which penalised those who could least afford it most, but it had absolute bollocks all to do with us being in the EU or out of it.

 

[Trips]

There were load of credible sources that were saying that the EU is in dire straights. Crippling debt, austerity, mass unemployment ect. There are many well known economists that say that the EU is debt ridden and will not be able to carry on as it is. I have yet to hear a remain voter talk about this. All they seem to care about is running the UK down. Where in the goverment ( propaganda ) leaflet, does it say anything about the UK being a trillion of debt? Yes a trillion in debt and in the EU. It is a bit rich keep talking how bad things will be with Brexit, without ever mentioning the Trillion debt, whilst in the EU, from anyone in the leave campaign.
No remainer could equate or dare mention we have 4 million UK workers that are living below the poverty line, whilst we are in EU. If remain voters had of, maybe we would take notice of their incessant running the UK down,when talking about the future, which is just guess work and at the same time not standing up to be counted and talking about the UK poverty and debt, whilst we are in the EU.

So what is the grand master plan that you've voted for then? How do we get rid of our "crippling" debt, get rid of austerity and get people living in poverty out of that situation? How will leaving the EU solve this?

 

[Tony Towner]

If you artificially raise prices through protectionism the market is not entirely free. New markets both globally and domestic will emerge. All well and good if the EU was a hive of economic prosperity (But it isn't)

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2012/jul/27/eu-trade-reforms-developing-countries


Of course, this is all hypothetical. Even if every single British voter, MP and minister agreed that we ought to raise barriers to the import of Chinese steel, we would not be allowed to – trade policy is a power we have given away to the European Union.

http://www.cityam.com/238375/protec...r-banning-parliament-from-even-considering-it

I must be missing the point you are making, but I fail to see how those links show how new markets will emerge. I get that the EU is a protectionist body, but not how we are going to be generating more wealth and producing more for local consumption as a result of leaving it? If it's that our steel industry will begin to thrive, then a high percentage of those plants have been closed down and built upon and I believe those that do exist have none British owners so profits would go outside the UK (after tax) anyway. There are people who work in that industry or close to it who post on here who will have a better view of it than me though.

 

[thehistorymakers]

So what is the grand master plan that you've voted for then? How do we get rid of our "crippling" debt, get rid of austerity and get people living in poverty out of that situation? How will leaving the EU solve this?

First you have to admit we had that when we were in the EU and Remainers forgot to mention it before the referendum.

 

[Trips]

First you have to admit we had that when we were in the EU and Remainers forgot to mention it before the referendum.

Haha

Everyone knows that the UK was in debt. And yes, we had austerity measures in place (again, bought in by the Tories, not the EU)

So, what's the plan?

 

[thehistorymakers]

Haha

Everyone knows that the UK was in debt. And yes, we had austerity measures in place (again, bought in by the Tories, not the EU)



So, what's the plan?

So why do all the other EU countries apart from the newest poorest countries have massive debt too ?

The first thing I would do, is not let any unskilled cheap labour come in to the country, If we already have low skilled UK workers that are unemployed. Paying benefits to people that are already here and letting people in to the country to do a job someone already getting benefits for, is rediculous.

 

[Tony Towner]

So why do all the other EU countries apart from the newest poorest countries have massive debt too ?

Two reasons, they have the biggest banking industries so had to pay the most to bail them out. They are in the Euro and have had to pay billions to keep it afloat or crippled their economies to enter it in the first place.

 

[Papper]

I must be missing the point you are making, but I fail to see how those links show how new markets will emerge. I get that the EU is a protectionist body, but not how we are going to be generating more wealth and producing more for local consumption as a result of leaving it? If it's that our steel industry will begin to thrive, then a high percentage of those plants have been closed down and built upon and I believe those that do exist have none British owners so profits would go outside the UK (after tax) anyway. There are people who work in that industry or close to it who post on here who will have a better view of it than me though.

If 'protected' markets are opened up then you get competition and new markets emerge.

Lets not pretend that the WTO is some magical entity but I cannot see how we are dependant on or in fact can become isolated by countries such as Germany and France let alone the Greeks, Spaniards and Italians. I cannot be convinced (hope somebody can) that we are not in a position of strength. I'm all for subsidising the steel industry as it is cost effective but we can do that without the EU.

What needs to happen is a General Election.

 

[thehistorymakers]

Two reasons, they have the biggest banking industries so had to pay the most to bail them out. They are in the Euro and have had to pay billions to keep it afloat or crippled their economies to enter it in the first place.

So the Eurozone makes poor people pay for the debts created by bankers, by forcing on the very same poor people, austerity?

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Also western democracies have been dominated by neoliberal economics for the last 40 years. An underlying pillar of which is public debt to private institutions.

Nothing to do with the EU. Again.

 

[Tony Towner]

We aren't in the Euro and had no plans to ever be, so not relevant to the UK or your point about UK debt.

 

[Trips]

So why do all the other EU countries apart from the newest poorest countries have massive debt too ?

The first thing I would do, is not let any unskilled cheap Labour come in to the country, If we already have low skilled UK workers that are unemployed.

Firstly the debt argument is ridiculous. There are only 5 countries on the planet that have no national debt. Countries run at a deficit.

Secondly, 3 quick questions.

Who is going to take the low-skilled jobs?
We already have a shortage of people to work in low-skilled jobs as it is, how is stopping people from the EU going to help?
What would you do about EU nationals already working here?

 

[thehistorymakers]

Also western democracies have been dominated by neoliberal economics for the last 40 years. An underlying pillar of which is public debt to private institutions.

Nothing to do with the EU. Again.

Nothing to do with the EU, because it isn't a western democracy but it is neo liberal.

 

[thehistorymakers]

Firstly the debt argument is ridiculous. There are only 5 countries on the planet that have no national debt. Countries run at a deficit.

Secondly, 3 quick questions.

Who is going to take the low-skilled jobs?
We already have a shortage of people to work in low-skilled jobs as it is, how is stopping people from the EU going to help?
What would you do about EU nationals already working here?

We haven't got a shortage of low skilled workers, we have many unemployed low skilled workers, who can't get a job, who are on benefits.
Questions 1 and 2 are basically the same.

3, well if the UK is going to be such a shit hole when it leaves the EU, they won't want to stay in the UK, will they?

Anybody who was living and working here before the referendum, or married partners at home looking after the kids, of those workers and their kids should be able to stay.