A
Labour veteran, thinking to compare the tepid feelings towards his party in the present day with the last time it was in opposition preparing to be in government, recently lamented to me: “For all that Keir has achieved, it doesn’t feel like 1997.”
This is true enough, but mainly because how people usually remember the famous Labour victory of that election year is at odds with how it actually was. Folklore has it that
Tony Blair achieved a landslide triumph in ’97 by generating a huge surge of optimistic elation about the prospect of a Labour government. Didn’t an ecstatic crowd line Downing Street flourishing union jacks to hosannah him into Number 10? So they did, but the cheering, flag-waving throng was not composed of members of the public. They were Labour party staff and their families.
Sir Tony, as he has since become, was an ace at delivering uplifting oratory when he thought the occasion demanded it, but the stats tell us that this did not excite a substantial majority of the electorate. New Labour won the 1997 election with just over 13 and a half million votes, about half a million less than dull old John Major had secured for the Tories in 1992. The most crucial factor in the Blair landslide of ’97 was not soaring expectations of what a Labour government would deliver; it was the collapse of support for the Conservatives and efficient anti-Tory tactical voting. A frequent complaint about Sir Tony was that his programme was too cautious and his campaigning too buttoned-down and tight-lipped. That’s a criticism that will sound familiar to Sir Keir. The late Roy Jenkins, generally an admirer of Sir Tony, gently mocked the then Labour leader in advance of the ’97 election by remarking that he behaved with the trepidation of “a man carrying a priceless Ming vase across a highly polished floor”.
Four previous and successive election defeats for Labour – in 1979, 1983, 1987 and 1992 – made Sir Tony averse to taking any risks. His Labour was very constrained in what it initially promised it could deliver, even though it knew that it would come to power with the economy doing well.
The Labour high command of today is likewise scarred by quadruple consecutive losses, in 2010, 2015, 2017 and 2019, the last the most catastrophic defeat for the party since 1935. And whereas Sir Tony could expect to inherit decent economic growth, the bequest from the Tories to a Starmer government will be much grimmer.