Coronavirus

[The Saturday Boy]

80,815 cases in China, out of 1,386,000,000.

So 0.005%

Have they teated every Chinese person?

 

[AndyWolves]

I think the numbers now mean, of all the people who've felt poorly enough to go to hospital which ones have coronavirus.

Please correct me though if I'm wrong

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Pretty much. You can't wander into your GP surgery and say "I want a Corona test".

And in fact if you're ill with Covid symptoms, don't go anywhere near your GP surgery.

 

[Elephant Pyjamas]

Have they teated every Chinese person?

Obviously not? What's your point?

They have declared "victory" over the virus, yet confirmed cases are minimal across the population, therefore my question would be why are we convinced that herd immunity will work?

 

[lemonjelly]

Pretty much. You can't wander into your GP surgery and say "I want a Corona test".

And in fact if you're ill with Covid symptoms, don't go anywhere near your GP surgery.

I refer you to your recent comment about people being dicks. I've already had one person come to see me at work explaining they've been advised to isolate, so they are wondering what this means for their uni attendance.

 

[AndyWolves]

Obviously not? What's your point?

They have declared "victory" over the virus, yet confirmed cases are minimal across the population, therefore my question would be why are we convinced that herd immunity will work?

Herd immunity is a thing, it's why we have vaccinations against other things (measles etc)

My understanding is that with this "kind" of virus we become immune to particular strains and as this is a new strain that's why no-one has immunity. My understanding is it would be quite a good thing for the younger population to get this immunity as soon as possible as that reduces the opportunity for the virus to spread

I think when the Chinese have declared victory they mean they are in a position where they have it under control, I don't think anyone is suggesting it's not an issue for them but more of a manageable one.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

250 more recorded deaths in Italy today. Though I think the effects there are exacerbated by the trend of them having elderly relatives living with the main family.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Obviously not? What's your point?

They have declared "victory" over the virus, yet confirmed cases are minimal across the population, therefore my question would be why are we convinced that herd immunity will work?

Because your 1.3 billion number and also your number infected are both out in giving your percentage, unless the entire Chinese population was tested. In reality there will be the number actually tested / the number of infections, but of course that misses those infected that were never tested.

Also, you must remember that the vast majority of the outbreak in China is centred in one province. The population of that province rather than the entire country might be a good place to start when working out rough infection percentages.

 

[AndyWolves]

250 more recorded deaths in Italy today. Though I think the effects there are exacerbated by the trend of them having elderly relatives living with the main family.

That's a lot

The Italian way of greeting with a kiss on the cheek can't have helped their transmission rates either

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

As some of you know I was my Nan's live-in carer towards the end of her life. She was in her late 70s, effectively disabled and had a ridiculous amount of underlying conditions, including respiratory ones. Christ, that medicine cabinet took a long time to clear out, bless her.

But anyway, there will be a lot of people in the same kind of position I was. You catch something, it kills the person you are looking after. But it's not like you can sit at home forever.

Nightmare.

 

[Tom Hark]

Because your 1.3 billion number and also your number infected are both out in giving your percentage, unless the entire Chinese population was tested. In reality there will be the number actually tested / the number of infections, but of course that misses those infected that were never tested.

Also, you must remember that the vast majority of the outbreak in China is centred in one province. The population of that province rather than the entire country might be a good place to start when working out rough infection percentages.

Yes, but herd immunity apparently kicks in when about 70% of the population is immune. (I don't claim to know this; just going by R4 this lunchtime.) No way even 70% of Hubei had it, I'd have thought. But it seems that our policy is to go down that route when, if China is anything to go by, you can stop it with a far smaller % falling ill.

 

[Elephant Pyjamas]

Yes, but herd immunity apparently kicks in when about 70% of the population is immune. (I don't claim to know this; just going by R4 this lunchtime.) No way even 70% of Hubei had it, I'd have thought. But it seems that our policy is to go down that route when, if China is anything to go by, you can stop it with a far smaller % falling ill.

Exactly, that was the context in which it was brought up regarding China's population and our herd immunity strategy.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Ah - apologies, I was talking at somewhat cross purposes then.

I must admit I am not entirely convinced by a herd immunity strategy at all.

 

[PPB]

As some of you know I was my Nan's live-in carer towards the end of her life. She was in her late 70s, effectively disabled and had a ridiculous amount of underlying conditions, including respiratory ones. Christ, that medicine cabinet took a long time to clear out, bless her.

But anyway, there will be a lot of people in the same kind of position I was. You catch something, it kills the person you are looking after. But it's not like you can sit at home forever.

Nightmare.

It is a nightmare DW. I'm full time carer for my frail 88 year old mom, also my hubby is no spring chicken with asthma and a lifetime of being prone to chest infections and bronchitis. I'm just scared that I catch something, I bring it into the home and my mom and hubby get the brunt of it!

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

It is a nightmare DW. I'm full time carer for my frail 88 year old mom, also my hubby is no spring chicken with asthma and a lifetime of being prone to chest infections and bronchitis. I'm just scared that I catch something, I bring it into the home and my mom and hubby get the brunt of it!

No solution is there.

Thinking of you Sue and any way I can help, let me know.

 

[PPB]

No solution is there.

Thinking of you Sue and any way I can help, let me know.

Thank you DW. Like everyone, we just have to be as sensible and careful as we can be. Also feel bad for hubby as his 91 year old mom who is in a nursing home isn't well at all and the home has closed its door on visitors. Fully agree and understand them doing this but the fact he can't see his ailing mom, and doesn't know when he will be able to visit her again is upsetting.

To you DW, and all on the Forum, take care, and keep washing ya donnies.

 

[The Saturday Boy]

Obviously not? What's your point?

They have declared "victory" over the virus, yet confirmed cases are minimal across the population, therefore my question would be why are we convinced that herd immunity will work?

You quotes numbers without any context - what was your point?

Statisticians can extrapolate from small but significant amounts of data to make assumptions about larger populations. The 0.005% you quoted is meaningless unless everyone was tested.

Herd immunity is not something that has been invented as a result of Covid-19, it is a well established theory. The greater the percentage of people who have some immunity, the less likely it is that people who don't have any immunity will be infected. The issue with this outbreak is that nobody has any immunity so large numbers will be infected.

If you accept that herd immunity is a useful outcome, then the only way this can be achieved is by many millions of people being infected to naturally develop anti-bodies and at a later date rolling out a vaccine.

The alternative, which some people are calling for, is more draconian measures to prevent the spread of the virus completely. There is merit in that approach if it can be effectively implemented. Personally, I don't believe it can. We are not an authoritarian society like China - I don't think our Government would get away with forcing people into isolation, certainly not for extended periods of time. I am fairly sure we will face ever increasing restrictions but most will be by consent. If they get more right that wrong it will be a significant achievement and could provide the model for future similar outbreaks.

 

[The Saturday Boy]

Yes, but herd immunity apparently kicks in when about 70% of the population is immune. (I don't claim to know this; just going by R4 this lunchtime.) No way even 70% of Hubei had it, I'd have thought. But it seems that our policy is to go down that route when, if China is anything to go by, you can stop it with a far smaller % falling ill.

Probably would need to be higher for this virus as it seems quite contagious but even at a lower percentage it can have some impact and as Coronavirus won't disappear, anything that reduces the risk of community infection next Autumn/Winter is good, then add vaccination the following year (assuming there isn't a mutation) and then maybe you progressively lessen the impact of the virus. China haven't stopped it, there will be people who haven't had it yet who can still get it but maybe they have slowed down the infection rate.

 

[Pablowolf]

I was due to take my son and stepdaughter to Birmingham Comic Con next weekend at the NEC - that's been postponed til June.

Stepdaughter is gutted - she had her costume all sorted and everything.

(And no, you cheeky fuckers - I didn't have a costume planned)

Nothing planned? Were you just going to dip into your giant costume cupboard on the morning of, and see what takes your fancy?

 

[Kenny]

Shit just got real for the Brits