Coronavirus

[Deutsch Wolf]

The UK could see an estimated 7,000 to 20,000 deaths during the coronavirus pandemic, one of the country's top epidemiologists has said.

Professor Neil Ferguson told the BBC's Andrew Marr that experts believe the number of deaths "could be anywhere between about 7,000 or so up to a little over 20,000".

He said there are "some signs" the lockdown has helped slow the spread of virus, adding that the epidemic will likely plateau in the next seven to 10 days.

He's lost me here. He's saying we aren't even going to plateau for a week or more yet. We're currently at 500+ deaths a day. The total is 4,313 as it stands before today's figures are released.

What kind of modelling is giving you a figure of 7,000, it doesn't make any sense?

And what about a second wave, which is widely predicted to hit later in the year?

 

[Tredman]

That is an unfortunate by-product because he went (and followed good advice in doing so) down a different path. The delay from that point until the Imperial College advice changed and we went for the current suppression tactic was always going to have an effect in the figures. That isn't his fault, per se.

Hopefully it’ll all come out during a later enquiry, but it would seem the science and originators behind the original plan was shaky to say the least:

https://bylinetimes.com/2020/04/03/...tient-zero-for-this-toxic-transatlantic-idea/

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

He's lost me here. He's saying we aren't even going to plateau for a week or more yet. We're currently at 500+ deaths a day. The total is 4,313 as it stands before today's figures are released.

What kind of modelling is giving you a figure of 7,000, it doesn't make any sense?

And what about a second wave, which is widely predicted to hit later in the year?

And as it turns out:

+621 deaths, total 4,934.

So we're only going to get another 2,000 or so deaths? Despite not even hitting peak yet? It just seems wildly out of kilter with what we know.

 

[AndyWolves]

And as it turns out:

+621 deaths, total 4,934.

So we're only going to get another 2,000 or so deaths? Despite not even hitting peak yet? It just seems wildly out of kilter with what we know.

Id guess theyve been using the chinese numbers for a lot of what theyve been modelling

 

[Aikiwolf]

https://www.galwayventshare.com/

My friend has helped develop a way to safely share an ICU ventilator between two patients!

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Id guess theyve been using the chinese numbers for a lot of what theyve been modelling

But let's say we carry on roughly with how we are for the next week (so no further spikes - even allowing for the fact that figures always seem to be lower on a Sunday for whatever reason, and then there's a jump on Monday/Tuesday), and then that's the peak as he says and we'll start to see a decrease from there (note - decrease, not going from where we are to 0).

Not possible to stay below 7,000, simple maths.

 

[Kenny]

even allowing for the fact that figures always seem to be lower on a Sunday for whatever reason

I think some of that comes from one place in Scotland that does a Johnson and then on Monday you get 2 extra days worth of resuts added. Last week, it added an 100 deaths to the list on the Monday that should have been recorded on Saturday and Sunday

 

[Pablowolf]

I forget who recommended O'Keeffe's Working Hands but it's a bloody Godsend.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Over one in a thousand people in Wolverhampton now has a confirmed infection.

 

[Tredman]

Good news here in Italy. Max knows his stuff.


https://twitter.com/maxcroser/status/1246799663463895041?s=21

 

[Rui_CostCo]

That is an unfortunate by-product because he went (and followed good advice in doing so) down a different path. The delay from that point until the Imperial College advice changed and we went for the current suppression tactic was always going to have an effect in the figures. That isn't his fault, per se.

+1 You are what you eat , if he was being fed the wrong information, he was going to poop out the wrong decisions.

 

[Rui_CostCo]

And as it turns out:

+621 deaths, total 4,934.

So we're only going to get another 2,000 or so deaths? Despite not even hitting peak yet? It just seems wildly out of kilter with what we know.

If they are still running with the original model i ts based on this

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

The numbers vary wildly depending on whats implemented and how successful it is. He stresses each time that 'if whats in place works....' I supose one of the questions is, is it working?

 

[Papper]

Are you related to a Conservative politician or something? Have you ever considered therapy to understand why you feel an urge to be so aggressive toward anything you deem to be critical of the Conservative Party, regardless of whether it is or not? I politely requested that you stop with the personal attacks, which inevitably occur when you don't actually have anything to counter a statement with.

I would kindly request once more, that unless I'm addressing you directly, you refrain from mounting a personal attack solely based on the fact that any belief or opinion contradicting your own is automatically irrelevant, incorrect, non factual.

THanks

Welcome to the TWF. It'll be because you are a troll, a ***tard or talking bollocks.

 

[Papper]

Rayner begins class warfare - it's not okay to tell people not to sunbathe if you have a big house and a big garden. Fucking hilarious ...

Could somebody tell her it's for their own safety and to prevent the spread? It's not a political point scoring game.

 

[Trips]

Welcome to the TWF. It'll be because you are a troll, a ***tard or talking bollocks.

It's the third option

 

[Rui_CostCo]

It's the third option

I think Peter Green summed up the best attitude to have towards faceless keyboard warriors on the internet when he said

I can't help about the shape I'm in, I can't sing I ain't pretty and my legs are thin.
But don't ask me what I think of you, I might not give the answer that you want me to.

Oh well.

 

[Papper]

It's the third option

As predicted. Phewwwww

 

[Papper]

I think Peter Green summed up the best attitude to have towards faceless keyboard warriors on the internet when he said

I can't help about the shape I'm in, I can't sing I ain't pretty and my legs are thin.
But don't ask me what I think of you, I might not give the answer that you want me to.

Oh well.

The trouble starts when people make a self judgement on who is talking bollocks when maybe they are not qualified to make those judgments and rely on the consensus of the clique. Groupthink.

 

[Rui_CostCo]

I suppose I've never been part of a clique on here, I've never really been part of anything on here, maybe if I knew whose opinions I should be echoing instead of my own I might have had more interactions over the years, but hey ho, every Pandemic has a silver lining I guess

 

[nimrod]

That is an unfortunate by-product because he went (and followed good advice in doing so) down a different path. The delay from that point until the Imperial College advice changed and we went for the current suppression tactic was always going to have an effect in the figures. That isn't his fault, per se.

hmm, you wonder what came first. inaction based on policy or policy to justify inaction. I thought the herd immunity concept (as far as I recall) was thrown out by BJ in some morning show as a train of thought and I saw an I/v with chris whitty early on after the policy sea change that referenced split opinions amongst the advisors, which I read to roughly translate as "it wasn't my idea". I still don't see where the initial containment phase was - it lasted about 5 minutes and didn't seem to involve any containment which tends to suggest, to me at least, it was policy supporting inaction.