Wolves 2-2 Spurs: EFL Cup 3rd Rd - Bah Lost on Penalties Verdict Thread

[PuntsWolf]

Sample size isn’t great and data is poor. Wouldn’t be putting my house on any conclusions from it personally

 

[AndyWolves]

Translation : Data doesn't say what I want it to say



I'm joking btw

 

[Tony Towner]

If you are playing that game his XG was 1.6 higher and his expected assists 1.9 lower. So he missed good chances and got lucky with people converting balls he had the last touch of... Stats eh?

 

[AndyWolves]

If you are playing that game his XG was 1.6 higher and his expected assists 1.9 lower. So he missed good chances and got lucky with people converting balls he had the last touch of... Stats eh?

I thought we'd said in the Adama thread that the quality of the assist was dependent on the assister?

Silva must be putting in some real quality assists!

*Apologies, but Fred started it!

Edit. A stat which no one will find suprising, only 50% of the passes intended for him did he retain possession of.

Jimenez was up around 70%

 

[PuntsWolf]

Just to play the game, his 3 assists were:

Brigton at home where Traore scored
Fulham away Traore in the last minute
United at home for Semedo.

The first one is a nice one-two, but Traore has worked and finished it.
Second is a decent ball into space but Traore still has a lot to do and gets some help from the keeper.
Third is a reverse pass to Semedo which deflects into his path and then the shot deflects in.

Small sample size with huge slices of luck in 66% of them.

As for goals

One is a penalty against Burnley
Two is a decent goal against WBA
Three is a great finish against West Ham
Four is a huge slice of luck where he kicks it against himself and it loops over keeper.

50% are a penalty or massive luck. As I said the sample size is shit, the data is limited and assists aren’t really a great stay anyway.

But statiscally he was our “most impactful player”. So ignore your eyes, Fabio should be starting every game.

 

[Freddeno]

Best Goal and Assist over 90 minutes ratio at the club last season.

That seems like an impact to me

haha, aye

 

[AndyWolves]

Just to play the game, his 3 assists were:

Brigton at home where Traore scored
Fulham away Traore in the last minute
United at home for Semedo.

The first one is a nice one-two, but Traore has worked and finished it.
Second is a decent ball into space but Traore still has a lot to do and gets some help from the keeper.
Third is a reverse pass to Semedo which deflects into his path and then the shot deflects in.

Small sample size with huge slices of luck in 66% of them.

As for goals

One is a penalty against Burnley
Two is a decent goal against WBA
Three is a great finish against West Ham
Four is a huge slice of luck where he kicks it against himself and it loops over keeper.

50% are a penalty or massive luck. As I said the sample size is shit, the data is limited and assists aren’t really a great stay anyway.

But statiscally he was our “most impactful player”. So ignore your eyes, Fabio should be starting every game.

So what you're saying is that not only does he have an eye for goal he's got the rare quality of being lucky too?

 

[PuntsWolf]

So what you're saying is that not only does he have an eye for goal he's got the rare quality of being lucky too?

Unlike you to misinterpret things Andy!

 

[Wilf Wolf]

Given how many attempts we had in the first three games it’s inevitable some of our players feature prominently in the “chances created” table. The reality is very few chances were good openings where you’d expect the player with the chance to score so I’ll file this in the “lies, damned lies and statistics” drawer.

Perhaps the lesson to take from it is fewer, better openings would be more beneficial so stop shooting so quickly and try to create better chances. Every time Neves spanners one into the crowd I wonder what might have happened if we’d retained possession and worked the ball. This is exactly why inverted forwards are likely to result in more goals than Traore getting to the byline and crossing to no one in particular.

 

[YoungWolf]

Given how many attempts we had in the first three games it’s inevitable some of our players feature prominently in the “chances created” table. The reality is very few chances were good openings where you’d expect the player with the chance to score so I’ll file this in the “lies, damned lies and statistics” draw.

Perhaps the lesson to take from it is fewer, better openings would be more beneficial so stop shooting so quickly and try to create better chances. Every time Neves spanners one into the crowd I wonder what might have happened if we’d retained possession and worked the ball. This is exactly why inverted forwards are likely to result in more goals than Traore getting to the byline and crossing to no one in particular.

Except the data agrees with your point about better chances as we have one of the lowest xG/shots in the league…

 

[Wilf Wolf]

Except the data agrees with your point about better chances as we have one of the lowest xG/shots in the league…

Data needs good interpretation. In this case it is an excellent data set!

 

[AndyWolves]

Except the data agrees with your point about better chances as we have one of the lowest xG/shots in the league…

I might be wrong (usually am) but our xG per shots is just below average at 0.09. villa are worse than us in this respect at 0.07

 

[YoungWolf]

I might be wrong (usually am) but our xG per shots is just below average at 0.09. villa are worse than us in this respect at 0.07

We have something like the fifth worst in the league I believe

 

[AndyWolves]

We have something like the fifth worst in the league I believe

Might be a rounding thing then, FBRef has us joint 12th with 3 others, all on 0.09.