The Race For The Top Four

[Paddingtonwolf]

Forgot United were already out of the FA Cup. Apologies.

 

[Jinky]

Good work all around with the summary, lads.

Leicester winning the conference league is more likely than any of the other scenarios (as in, I think City/Liverpool or Chelsea will win the FA Cup and I don’t see Man Utd winning the champions league), especially given their league position, so they’ll probably go all in for the conference league and get a pass to the Europa.

Said a few weeks back that I’d snap your hand/cock off for a conference league place and that’s still the case. I don’t see us winning both our games in hand on Utd and I don’t see us continuing on the kind of winning streak we are currently on (ignoring Arsenal, H), but I reckon we’ll do enough to finish 6th or 7th.

 

[Jeb01]

I salute those of you who have spent time working out the various options.
Well done and please keep the rest us up to date as things develop.
I’m just taking the view that if we keep on gathering points we shall, hopefully, end up in one of the European places, and if so I really don’t mind which competition it is.
Somehow I can’t see us in the Champions League but who cares?
Bruno will have worked wonders to get us into Europe if that happens.

 

[Law's Bus]

If memory serves, an individual country can have up to 9 places (or maybe 10 now with the ECL), but only all of the UEFA competition winners are from one nation, and all fail to qualify in the ordinary way, i.e. through league position or winning cups.

If you win the Champions' League or Europa League (hence get into the CL that way), and qualify for the EL or ECL through the national competition, then that place in the EL/ECL is forfeit.

So, I think if Leicester qualify for the EL via the ECL and don't qualify for anything via the league, then they simply get the place for the ECL winners, and they don't take up a "national" place. I can't find the 2022-23 Europa League rules to be sure.

This is the relevant text from the 2021-22 Champions' League rules as an example of how it works:

The UEFA Champions League and UEFA Europa League titleholders are guaranteed a place in the group stage even if they do not qualify for the competition through their domestic championships. If the UEFA Champions League or UEFA Europa League titleholder qualifies for the UEFA Europa League or UEFA Europa Conference League through one of its domestic competitions, the number of places to which its association is entitled in the UEFA Europa League or UEFA Europa Conference League is decreased by one.

 

[The Bear]

I'm not gonna bother learning all those permutations as it'll change in a month's time depending on results. I'll worry about it nearer the time.

 

[PuntsWolf]

Let's next consider the Champions League. Liverpool City Chelsea and Manchester United are all in there. If any of the first three win it then they will almost certainly qualify by league position, so it shouldn't make any difference. United winning it if they didn't make fourth place becomes a fly in the ointment as there would be five teams in the Champions League and therefore only one in the Europa and the Conference can only ever be one team for England because of the high coefficient guaranteeing extra places in the higher competitions. So we don't want United to win the Champions League unless they also finish fourth (if we finished fifth right behind them).

Man United winning the CL is only an issue really if they finish 8th. They won’t get near winning it and they won’t finish 8th.

FA Cup. We really could do with a Manchester City or Liverpool winning this. Or Chelsea would be okay. Ideally any Champions League qualifier winning it, bar Manchester United, West Ham or Spurs if we are trying to beat them to fourth. So let's hope they all lose in the cup.

4th place would go CL regardless. If United, Spurs or West Ham finish top 6 and win cup then EL space defaults to league anyway. We basically don’t want a team outside the top 7 winning the FA cup. If Spurs finish 7th, win the FA cup and we finish 6th and take the Conference then that’s fine. They deserve it for winning the cup, and I’d take the conference anyway.

Spurs winning it only becomes a problem if they finish 8th, I doubt they’ll win it or finish outside the top 7.

Europa League. We absolutely do not want West Ham winning this competition. That would see them getting a Champions League spot, which hugely restricts our chances of getting in.

Im more worried about them winning it and knocking us out of Europe altogether. They finish 8th and win it and there’s a good chance 6th gets you fuck all. Unless UEFA dish out extra places (as per @Law's Bus) . I doubt West Ham will win it though.

Conference. We equally don't want Leicester winning this competition. Automatic Europa League spot.

Likewise this, but it’s more more likely Leicester win it than WHU the EL, but possibly irrelevant if the extra places are given.

Them winning this and someone rogue winning the FA cup is the most likely scenario to fuck us if we’re outside the top 5.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Southampton worry me a bit in that respect. In decent form - we're the only team to do the double over them so far - and don't have to worry about relegation.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

United winning the CL is an issue if they finish fifth, sixth or seventh too. Not that they will as they are nowhere near good enough to win the CL.

 

[Law's Bus]

Man United winning the CL is only an issue really if they finish 8th. They won’t get near winning it and they won’t finish 8th.

4th place would go CL regardless. If United, Spurs or West Ham finish top 6 and win cup then EL space defaults to league anyway. We basically don’t want a team outside the top 7 winning the FA cup. If Spurs finish 7th, win the FA cup and we finish 6th and take the Conference then that’s fine. They deserve it for winning the cup, and I’d take the conference anyway.

Spurs winning it only becomes a problem if they finish 8th, I doubt they’ll win it or finish outside the top 7.

Im more worried about them winning it and knocking us out of Europe altogether. They finish 8th and win it and there’s a good chance 6th gets you fuck all. Unless UEFA dish out extra places (as per @Law's Bus) . I doubt West Ham will win it though.

Likewise this, but it’s more more likely Leicester win it than WHU the EL, but possibly irrelevant if the extra places are given.

Them winning this and someone rogue winning the FA cup is the most likely scenario to fuck us if we’re outside the top 5.

Man U winning the CL is actually not really an issue at all where-ever they finish. If they finish 1-4 they just get the "national" CL spot anyway. If they finish 5-6-7, then all it does is change the competition they qualify for - they just go into the CL via the "winners" place rather than the competition they qualify for through the league. If they finish 8th, then they get the extra "winners" place for winning the CL (and failing to qualify for anything via the league), and 1-2-3-4-5-6-7 qualify as usual, FA Cup caveats notwithstanding.

Basically, I don't think we don't really need to worry about teams winning UEFA competitions, just domestic ones where they don't qualify through the league - like Arsenal doing us over a couple of years ago so 7th didn't qualify.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Atletico are no great shakes this season so they *could* get through this round, maybe. After that though it's likely to be one of the following:

Bayern
Man City
Ajax
Chelsea
Juventus
Liverpool
PSG

And they aren't likely to beat any of them over two legs.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

They might beat Ajax or Juventus I suppose.

 

[PuntsWolf]

Man U winning the CL is actually not really an issue at all where-ever they finish. If they finish 1-4 they just get the "national" CL spot anyway. If they finish 5-6-7, then all it does is change the competition they qualify for - they just go into the CL via the "winners" place rather than the competition they qualify for through the league. If they finish 8th, then they get the extra "winners" place for winning the CL (and failing to qualify for anything via the league), and 1-2-3-4-5-6-7 qualify as usual, FA Cup caveats notwithstanding.

Basically, I don't think we don't really need to worry about teams winning UEFA competitions, just domestic ones where they don't qualify through the league - like Arsenal doing us over a couple of years ago so 7th didn't qualify.

Yeah I’d already wrote that but bit before I saw your post about “additional places”.

United winning the CL is an issue if they finish fifth, sixth or seventh too. Not that they will as they are nowhere near good enough to win the CL.

Why is it an issue? Even if we ignore the additional places it isn’t an issue.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Because you get a fifth CL place at the cost of a place in a lower competition.

 

[Law's Bus]

Because you get a fifth CL place at the cost of a place in a lower competition.

Yes, but it's at the cost of Man U's own place, not a different place.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

I'm not convinced that is the case. Got a link of the rules about that I can have a schmooz over and then correct my analysis?

If the UEFA Champions League or UEFA Europa League titleholder qualifies for the UEFA Europa League or UEFA Europa Conference League through one of its domestic competitions, the number of places to which its association is entitled in the UEFA Europa League or UEFA Europa Conference League is decreased by one.

This is the bit. Association numbers are reduced if someone wins a competition, but it seems to be if they pick up a qualification elsewhere domestically. Murky stuff.

 

[Law's Bus]

I'm not convinced that is the case. Got a link of the rules about that I can have a schmooz over and then correct my analysis?

They're all on UEFA's website. Article 3.03 of the CL one is the one you want to see how it works really, as they're all for this season so don't take account of ECL winners anywhere.


EDIT: Given that doesn't look like a link unless you hover over it (and it makes me look like an unhelpful wazzock), they're all at:

UEFA Documents

documents.uefa.com

 

[PuntsWolf]

Because you get a fifth CL place at the cost of a place in a lower competition.

It would be 5 CL places, 1 EL and 1 Conf. So 4th would still get CL.

If United finish 6th and win it. 4th get CL and 5th gets EL as normal.

If United finish 7th and win it. Then 5th gets EL and 6th most likely gets Conf. Again that’s normal as it’s a cup spot defaulted to league.

It’s the FA cup that spanner’s it up.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Like two seasons ago!

 

[Law's Bus]

If United finish 7th and win it. Then 5th gets EL and 6th most likely gets Conf. Again that’s normal as it’s a cup spot defaulted to league.

Not quite - if Man U finish 7th and win the CL, then it's the ECL spot that's forfeit, so 5th and 6th go into the EL as normal.

You're absolutely right that it's the FA Cup (and the League Cup, but no-one's won that and not qualified for the CL through the league in forever anyway) that changes things.

 

[PuntsWolf]

Not quite - if Man U finish 7th and win the CL, then it's the ECL spot that's forfeit, so 5th and 6th go into the EL as normal.

You're absolutely right that it's the FA Cup (and the League Cup, but no-one's won that and not qualified for the CL through the league in forever anyway) that changes things.

Fair enough. So we’d have no ECL representation?

Like two seasons ago!

Rightly so. Cups should be worth more than finishing 7th