The Incoming Transfers Everywhere Thread: Summer 2023

[Johnny75]

We don’t need the new guy to score a bunch on his own if he’s creating actual chances for others.

We do as there are no other natural goal scorers in the team. Think Mitrovic and Fulham.

Our xG if the lowest in the league (if you believe in such things), that is completely unsustainable.

And we're underperforming it!

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

The Venn diagram of "teams with a top scorer who got <10 goals" and "teams who finished in the top half" would have a fairly small intersection over the last decade. Somehow we were one of them last season though we didn't deserve it.

Steven Fletcher got in double figures for us in both of his seasons here and we were rubbish, it's not a Rubik's Cube of a problem. We should be able to find someone.

 

[Tony Towner]

If the best player we can get is the other forward Mendes has spent the last half a decade trying to fob off on us then the reset in transfer policy has failed

 

[Del Woppio]

Aye it's all well and good saying you want your forward to link up and bring other people into play, but if people you're bringing into play are about as useful as a croissant dildo then it's a pointless strategy

 

[prawnking]

We don’t need the new guy to score a bunch on his own if he’s creating actual chances for others.

I wouldn't bet on any of the other 'forwards' we have at the club currently putting away those chances, though

 

[The Bear]

I think we already have that player in Sasa, assuming he can stay fit.

We still need to sign another first choice in that position though, just in case.

 

[Alan]

If we sign someone who can only finish, we gain nothing. That’s all I’m saying.

To go back to Tony’s point earlier, I don’t want us signing Awoniyi Mk. II.

 

[Alan]

FWIW, Bournemouth have the worst xG/90 in the league as things stand. 0.94 xG/90.

Honestly, looking at these stats has swayed me a bit. I knew our xG/90 was bad (and it is, 1.21 xG/90), but wasn't expecting our actual G/90 to be significantly worse. Guess what, it is! 0.84 G/90.

Okay, so we're just crap at both chance creation and finishing. Very reassuring.

 

[WsWolf]

The Venn diagram of "teams with a top scorer who got <10 goals" and "teams who finished in the top half" would have a fairly small intersection over the last decade. Somehow we were one of them last season though we didn't deserve it.

Steven Fletcher got in double figures for us in both of his seasons here and we were rubbish, it's not a Rubik's Cube of a problem. We should be able to find someone.

He's another who'd be a huge improvement on what we have. Such a clever footballer.

 

[WsWolf]

FWIW, Bournemouth have the worst xG/90 in the league as things stand. 0.94 xG/90.

Honestly, looking at these stats has swayed me a bit. I knew our xG/90 was bad (and it is, 1.21 xG/90), but wasn't expecting our actual G/90 to be significantly worse. Guess what, it is! 0.84 G/90.

Okay, so we're just crap at both chance creation and finishing. Very reassuring.

I think the two are linked. If you look at the 1.21xg I bet it's about 7/8 different opportunities so the average per attempt is really low.

 

[Alan]

I think the two are linked. If you look at the 1.21xg I bet it's about 7/8 different opportunities so the average per attempt is really low.

Yeah, that's part of what it tells us. We don't create many quality chances and we underperform the average success on similar opportunities anyway. So the two do go hand in hand, but ideally if we had players who could finish at just an average level, our aG and xG wouldn't be nearly half a goal different.

 

[GoldFlagFlyingHigh]

My personal prediction of who leaves this summer.

Sold/Released: Sarkic, Jonny, Ait-Nouri, Sanderson, Coady, Neves, Moutinho, Perry, Podence, Adama, Guedes, Jimenez.
One of Costa/Silva/Kalajdzic (JL’s decision)

Loan: Moulden, Hoever, Lembikisa, Mosquera, Marques, Lonwijk, Bolla, Hodge, Kawabe, Cundle, Corbeanu, Campbell

Could we be adding Sarabia to this list…?

 

[Tony Towner]

4 games in a row he's not come off the bench for now

 

[Alan]

Could we be adding Sarabia to this list…?

 

[WsWolf]

Yeah, that's part of what it tells us. We don't create many quality chances and we underperform the average success on similar opportunities anyway. So the two do go hand in hand, but ideally if we had players who could finish at just an average level, our aG and xG wouldn't be nearly half a goal different.

If you have 12 0.1xg goal attempts and score non that looks really bad at top level but realistically it isn't because those attempts are ridiculously unlikely to end in a goal is the point im making.

We don't generally miss many sitters.

 

[Alan]

Well the sitters we don't miss are included in the 1.21 xG. So even if we don't miss them, does us little good as we barely create them.

 

[Johnny75]

If you have 12 0.1xg goal attempts and score non that looks really bad at top level but realistically it isn't because those attempts are ridiculously unlikely to end in a goal is the point im making.

We don't generally miss many sitters.

You highlight the problem of xG and why people hang too much on it.

It's a broad brush metric which taken in isolation, as some stats idiots (not you) do, doesn't mean a lot.

I'm sorry I brought the bloody stupid thing up now.

 

[Alan]

All shots are included in xG, not just misses. Y'all know that, right?

 

[prawnking]

Whoever we sign in any kind of forward position this summer has to have a robust history of goal scoring and /or creating, or we're just asking for trouble

 

[Johnny75]

All shots are included in xG, not just misses. Y'all know that, right?

There are a myriad of things wrong with xG that included.

We've been down this road before and the last paper I put a link up to mentioned it is a guide only and not to take it too seriously.