For all the ifs and buts, I suspect the ball is firmly in Mercedes’ court to win the Dubai race (notwithstanding mechanical or personnel failures). The changes to the track massively benefit them as they provide two DRS zones shortly after one another which means Lewis and his mega engine should be able to sweep past Max like at Brazil. Obviously care will be needed, but it would take an incredible turn of events for Lewis to not win.
Appreciate that Max could just slide into him but there’s also a lot of run off options at the key flash points for those overtaking zones so it’s hard to see how he does it in a manner that (a) damages Hamilton but not him, and (b) (if illegal) avoids a penalty. Even with a time penalty in the race, it’s clear that Hamilton and the Mercedes are far quicker now.