REFERENDUM RESULTS AND DISCUSSION THREAD

[Papper]

There are large chunks of the populace who will never forgive the position (myself included) but that doesn't mean that work doesn't need to start immediately to try and make the best of this absolute bollix of a position. There are also large chunks who will only go for absolute hard exit and no freedom of movement. There are chunks in the middle (Brexiteers who want a mild solution such as keeping trade and movement but removing EU sovereignty, or Remain voters who feel they can forgive). Everyone needs to be appeased by the plan going forward.

Well you'd think we were entering year zero. As far as I am concerned the British people have more power over their destiny. The one party state has seen both a left and a right wing agenda emerge (Because people are fed up and want change). There is nothing that will convince me that being part of the mess was advantageous. The Politicians need to deliver - they need to serve us and not the Multi-Nationals.

 

[Tredman]

The Visa thing - ok, so that is freedom of movement of citizens definitely to go. Fair enough, and I note that you have suggested it must be reciprocal, which is absolutely true. It would be completely unrealistic to expect us to get all the gain and none of the pain there. It means then Visas needed for even short trips to the EU. A pain in the arse. But not an insurmountable one. I'm not sure how the "working" restriction will actually pan out. Families move here. Not everyone will be getting a job or have one lined up. Equally we have citizens who retire to Spain and France and other countries. They won't be working. Would they be denied visas?

Plenty of countries you can get a tourist or buainess visa at the point of entry, this is usually stamped with expiry in 3 months. I don't think this side of things would be an issue.

However, the UK is incredibly strict already about family visas, this would probably be massive barrier to anyone coming to work in the UK and earning less than £35k (iirc). Assuming it's reciprocal then that will be difficult for anyone planning to retire outside the UK.

I will try. It is pure speculation but if I was in a position of power I would be looking to the following but nothing happens overnight.

freedom of movement of citizens of the EU into the UK- Passport stamp with immediate effect. Those entering for the first time after 1st July 2016 will need a visa post brexit and this will be automatic subject to them being in employment.
freedom of movement of UK citizens into the broader EU- visa as was
UK Payments into the EU project- have to keep paying them while we are members but I would say that also keeps our place at the table while they decide what to do with us not as what happened this week a 27 strong meeting without us. Only issues that will definitely be happening post Brexit should exclude us if we are paying members. There is no naughty step
UK entry into the EU free trade block while outside the EU post Brexit.- Dont cut your nose off to spite your face EU. We have a trade deficit. You want us to trade with you. Lets do a decent deal that benefits all asides. It is possible.
I am very pro European. I love visiting Europe and love it when my European friends visit me here. There is confusion. I do not like the EU or its direction given that we as a country were not willing to play by the rules at some stage further down the line this divorce was in my view, inevitable.

I don't agree with a lot of what you say CW, but if all Brexiteers were like you then I would have a lot more confidence in the future and be a lot less worried about racism in the UK.

 

[Papper]

What if they don't WANT to do these jobs? Sanctioning unemployment benefits doesn't seem to have pushed them any nearer to taking the roles, so what do you suggest to encourage them?

The point is whether WE want to subsidise people who don't want to work. Their opinion is irrelevant.

 

[Donegal Wolf]

Starting with the EU payments one - that sounds completely sensible and the correct way to go. If a definite exit date is set then anything for payment beyond that date should be not chargeable I suppose. I also like your comment on no naughty step and still being involved in discussions and so on until exit is done. One fly in the ointment is we are due the Presidency in early 2017. Can't see that happening now, but it needs to be discussed. Someone else should step in, although it is mainly ceremonial. There will be some discussions that we shouldn't be involved in though - what the EU propose to do among themselves around the exit and beyond. We would have to sit out those discussions.

UK already said they dont want it.

http://www.politico.eu/article/uk-m...council-of-ministers-justus-lipsius-brussels/

I think today's discussions are to do with what the other 27 plan to do about the exit and finalising their approach and who leads the negotiations etc on the EU side. With regards to the UK being involved in discussions I dont think it helped when the UK Commissioner resigned straight after the result was announced, rather then being put on the naughty step it looked more like a case of not playing anymore and taking my ball and going home.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

I agree about the EU funding thing. If we do block off freedom of movement then I think we can forget that completely. Equally, making a payment can be forgotten.

Even though I am still MR FUCKING ANGRY about this and I hope against hope that the whole damn thing can in some way be reversed, assuming that Article 50 is enacted by the next Prime Minister, I see that there really are only two possibilities

One is soft exit, where we are like Norway with a slightly wetter climate and fewer Vikings. Still paying our way, still getting the trade upside, still allowing freedom of movement. But really looking in through the window, and having no say in any decision making. If lucky, maybe no longer subject to the European Courts.

The second is hard exit. And the only way I can see that working is if we negotiate Hong Kong style trade deals and go completely free market. It really could wipe out what little manufacturing we have left though. Chinese, Japanese and American imported goods would suddenly be 20% cheaper and I don't see how we would be able to compete.

Neither scenario is particularly palatable. And neither scenario takes into account whatever the currency finally settles at. Or the stock market. For me yesterday's small recoveries were not a sign that we were through the worst of it at all. It was more sigh of relief that the worst shit won't arrive until October.

 

[Bit on the shaggies]

I agree about the EU funding thing. If we do block off freedom of movement then I think we can forget that completely. Equally, making a payment can be forgotten.

Even though I am still MR FUCKING ANGRY about this and I hope against hope that the whole damn thing can in some way be reversed, assuming that Article 50 is enacted by the next Prime Minister, I see that there really are only two possibilities

One is soft exit, where we are like Norway with a slightly wetter climate and fewer Vikings. Still paying our way, still getting the trade upside, still allowing freedom of movement. But really looking in through the window, and having no say in any decision making. If lucky, maybe no longer subject to the European Courts.

The second is hard exit. And the only way I can see that working is if we negotiate Hong Kong style trade deals and go completely free market. It really could wipe out what little manufacturing we have left though. Chinese, Japanese and American imported goods would suddenly be 20% cheaper and I don't see how we would be able to compete.

Neither scenario is particularly palatable. And neither scenario takes into account whatever the currency finally settles at. Or the stock market. For me yesterday's small recoveries were not a sign that we were through the worst of it at all. It was more sigh of relief that the worst shit won't arrive until October.

If you could get your tariff free thing going it would be great, I'm looking to buy a new camera you see.

You'd be like a fucking huge version of Andorra.

4 out of 5 cars built in Britain are exported apparently. I could see that staying the same, or improving, under such circumstances as raw materials will be cheaper and the EU will be happy to import cheaper cars. You can expect a crazy transition period though: high inflation, bankruptcies galore as industries fail to adapt, rising unemployment...

 

[pavlosmacwolf]

while this is a total clusterfuck of a result, for me personally (maybe) i has cerainly shocked the Greeks around me.

Let's leave out those, with family or friends currently living, working or studying in the UK, they all believe here Britain has left them to what is basically German ownership, until the Germans get bored that is.

They believe that Britain was the only country with the balls, and the strength to keep Germany on a European track, and yes they are worried about tourism, but that comes a big second.

Not my opinion, but the opinion of those i live with here in Greece.

 

[Bit on the shaggies]

while this is a total clusterfuck of a result, for me personally (maybe) i has cerainly shocked the Greeks around me.

Let's leave out those, with family or friends currently living, working or studying in the UK, they all believe here Britain has left them to what is basically German ownership, until the Germans get bored that is.

They believe that Britain was the only country with the balls, and the strength to keep Germany on a European track, and yes they are worried about tourism, but that comes a big second.

Not my opinion, but the opinion of those i live with here in Greece.

You getting yourself a new EU passport Pav?

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

I like to buy custom built guitars from the States and Japan. I can see a personal minute upside in that they would be cheaper. However, I just think it would be vastly complex and something would surely make it fall on its arse.

The big thing is that the US imports goods to UK. We don't charge 20% import. We put a tiny widget on the goods and export them to the EU. US manufacturer has just got round EU import duty. I can't imagine that loophole not being very securely closed off. There would be enormous legislation to try and cover everything off.

 

[Johnny75]

Disagree with the first part. I don't believe that the UK should have a say in EU policy. You have voted to leave and accordingly you shouldn't have anything to do with legislation that will not apply to you very shortly or in which there is, potentially, massive conflict of interest.

Second part, Switzerland is about to lose all EU funding because it voted against the free movement of people. The EU has been steadfast on this, they won't accept restrictions without imposing repercussions.

I do wonder how the EU would react to a Hong Kong type agreement. It would probably incur tariffs on all goods that are not manufactured 100% within the UK as to stop opening a tariff free back-door to the rest of the world. I too would worry about British manufacturing.

To the bold part first, if the Leave camp had any sense they would now strike a trade deal with Norway, Turkey and Switzerland. This new trade deal could have its own rules and strike a much stronger deal with the EU. Strength in numbers and covers some very strong markets. It would probably lead those countries to ask why they are paying into the single market if they too are trade defecits. This could essentially force the EU to rethink its hardline.

I would agree with Tredman and Paddy on the visas and I guess if you were going to retire to an EU country then you would need to prove your wealth (pension etc). I can't see dual citizenship being an option any more so this may be difficult.

I'm not too worried about British manufacturing as we are good at what we do and only the Germans are comparable in the EU. This could lead to good competition and drive to recruit but only if we invest in the country and existing businesses to do that. That will be tricky if the economy tanks.

 

[Papper]

The second is hard exit. And the only way I can see that working is if we negotiate Hong Kong style trade deals and go completely free market. It really could wipe out what little manufacturing we have left though. Chinese, Japanese and American imported goods would suddenly be 20% cheaper and I don't see how we would be able to compete.

A devalued pound gives our exports momentum and in turn creates jobs. Instead of companies competing for the same UK market share we need to innovate and export i.e. bring cash into this country. I'll keep repeating it, we are a massive market for the Multi Nationals and they will not want their goods to be uncompetitive in the UK market. It will take time but new markets will emerge. They have two years to negotiate but don't ever think we will be put upon.

 

[Bit on the shaggies]

I believe that Canada has to prove that any exported goods, which are not subject to tariffs since the latest trade deal with the EU, are 100% manufactured in Canada.

I have no idea how this is policed, but you can be sure that the EU would be very wary of a zero tariff state on it's doorstep.

 

[Tredman]

I believe that Canada has to prove that any exported goods, which are not subject to tariffs since the latest trade deal with the EU, are 100% manufactured in Canada.

I have no idea how this is policed, but you can be sure that the EU would be very wary of a zero tariff state on it's doorstep.

In the UK when you need to prove origin its usually done with the chamber of commerce. Bit of an odd one though and I'm not sure how well (currently) its policed.

I only ever had one issue which was when exporting devices containing Lithium batteries to Oman. An Israeli manufacturer has cornered the market in long life low voltage batteries, but Israel is a massive no-no to Omanis. Lost the sale in the end.

 

[Bit on the shaggies]

A devalued pound gives our exports momentum and in turn creates jobs. Instead of companies competing for the same UK market share we need to innovate and export i.e. bring cash into this country. I'll keep repeating it, we are a massive market for the Multi Nationals and they will not want their goods to be uncompetitive in the UK market. It will take time but new markets will emerge. They have two years to negotiate but don't ever think we will be put upon.

If you have no tariffs they wont be uncompetitive in the UK, but UK made goods will be.

 

[lemonjelly]

there should have been a plan and there shouldn't have been any need for deceit which undermines democracy.

but that's the fault of the political leaders of the campaign and not the fault of the people who voted to leave. you can't lump all leavers together in the decisions they took and you can't say there aren't legitimate reasons for a vote leave, which is why there was support across the political spectrum for it.

the big question is how ongoing governments deal with the fact that their vision up to now does not seem to be shared by the majority in the country and whether they'll do anything about it or just carry on as before.

On here, I think people have vented their annoyance at the misinformation of the leave campaign and their lack of a plan now that they've "won". I don't recall much in the way of abuse directed towards those who voted.

2 absolutely brilliant posts.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

A devalued pound gives our exports momentum and in turn creates jobs. Instead of companies competing for the same UK market share we need to innovate and export i.e. bring cash into this country. I'll keep repeating it, we are a massive market for the Multi Nationals and they will not want their goods to be uncompetitive in the UK market. It will take time but new markets will emerge. They have two years to negotiate but don't ever think we will be put upon.

If we go Hong Kong then the multi-nationals absolutely will be competitive in the UK market. Selling to us would have no import duty at all. Our manufacturing would need to export for sure. I think there is a world of bizarre possibility in the Hong Kong set up but it is full of risk and the EU would surely be VERY wary of this.

And that could be the real problem. What if we want Hong Kong, and they just slap an import duty on UK goods? There wouldn't be anything to stop them doing so unless we negotiated away from it. We aren't going to fall out of the EU at two years from Article 50 and find no tariffs anywhere. We would be treated like the US is importing into the EU.

So without a bucketload of reciprocal free trade agreements British goods would be very expensive in the EU, and no cheaper than they are now elsewhere in the world. Plus at that moment, the import duties we charge for those outside the EU would cease to exist because they are only there because of current EU trading regimes. We would become a very cheap place for overseas manufacturers to sell their goods.

If someone wants to go Hong Kong, we have a truly enormous amount of negotiation to do. A frightening amount.

 

[Papper]

If we go Hong Kong then the multi-nationals absolutely will be competitive in the UK market. Selling to us would have no import duty at all. Our manufacturing would need to export for sure. I think there is a world of bizarre possibility in the Hong Kong set up but it is full of risk and the EU would surely be VERY wary of this.

And that could be the real problem. What if we want Hong Kong, and they just slap an import duty on UK goods? There wouldn't be anything to stop them doing so unless we negotiated away from it. We aren't going to fall out of the EU at two years from Article 50 and find no tariffs anywhere. We would be treated like the US is importing into the EU.

So without a bucketload of reciprocal free trade agreements British goods would be very expensive in the EU, and no cheaper than they are now elsewhere in the world. Plus at that moment, the import duties we charge for those outside the EU would cease to exist because they are only there because of current EU trading regimes. We would become a very cheap place for overseas manufacturers to sell their goods.

If someone wants to go Hong Kong, we have a truly enormous amount of negotiation to do. A frightening amount.

We are no different to most other 'developed' countries in terms of the costs of producing.

You'll find the multi-nationals will put their mark on any negotiation and it will benefit them first and foremost.

The isolation of the UK will not be a part of their agenda. We fall, then they fall ...

 

[Tredman]

Yes and apparently the self same multi-nationals and Mi5 were going to fix the outcome of the referendum...

 

[Papper]

EU says we cannot retain access to the single market without freedom of movement.

As we import more from the EU than export the threat seems more damaging to them than us ..

Wonder what VW and BMW think ..

 

[thehistorymakers]

Yes and apparently the self same multi-nationals and Mi5 were going to fix the outcome of the referendum...

They tried their hardest.:disco: