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REFERENDUM RESULTS AND DISCUSSION THREAD

arklowolf said:
There will be an arrangement between The Brexit Party and The Conservatives regarding which seats they will contest. They are saying there wont be but it will be a massive gamble not to.
TBP wont win seats but they will take votes, mainly from The Cons.
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Paddingtonwolf said:
Agreed. The lack of a pact could harm the Conservatives
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The good thing is that Farage has moved his position over the years to only a no deal Brexit is good enough. Whilst Johnson is peddling the deal that even May couldn't stomach they will have difficulties coming to an arrangement. Can you really see the Conservatives not putting up candidates in English seats to give Farage a crack at them?
 
Cyber-_-man said:
Look. I am not re writing history at all. Scotland votes snp. That’s that. Wales? Who the hell knows what happens there? Northern Ireland goes dup. London goes red. The 5 remaining regions voted leave and three of them by some distance. This election is about nothing other than Brexit for the majority. Died in the wool leave voters can’t wait to hit the polls and show the will of the people and get rid of this absolute shower of shysters. We may not like it. But it’s going to happen. No student vote , no 16 year old vote and no decent opposition. The U.K. is blue and it will either be Boris blue or Boris and Brexit blue. Either way labours dead. Liberals in opposition? It’s crazy town.
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Just picking up on that little bit - why no student vote? They can vote in their home town or their student town if they register. And if they're not motivated to register, they probably wouldn't have voted at either location anyway. My daughter will be queuing up early to vote in a GE for the first time.
 
SLA said:
Just picking up on that little bit - why no student vote? They can vote in their home town or their student town if they register. And if they're not motivated to register, they probably wouldn't have voted at either location anyway. My daughter will be queuing up early to vote in a GE for the first time.
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I guess if you concentrate like minded people into a particular constituency the impact is more marked. end of term diaspora will reduce this. I mean look at all those scottish people concentrating their opinions in Scotland - spread them around the uk a bit and you could wipe the SNP out lol.
 
Clegg losing his seat last time is the most obvious example. That election happens outside of term then the result may have been different if the students were at home
 
Also I think it will be a medium turnout election. The door knockers for campaigning won’t be keen as it’s dark. Labour do better on higher turnouts. Also, the tories seems already investing heavily as are Brexit in a social media campaign. 55% of the country’s money is in the hands of 1% who will vote Tory or Brexit. Students voting in areas or pockets that were already red or liberal like Cambridge just increases an existing majority. This will be won and lost in the marginals and a number of those voted leave. So I do think that Brexit and tories could make some inroads . I don’t think Boris wins a landslide I never gave but a coalition with Brexit giving him a small majority I see as the likely outcome. Labour will rue not ditching Corbyn .
 
Cyber-_-man said:
Also I think it will be a medium turnout election. The door knockers for campaigning won’t be keen as it’s dark. Labour do better on higher turnouts. Also, the tories seems already investing heavily as are Brexit in a social media campaign. 55% of the country’s money is in the hands of 1% who will vote Tory or Brexit. Students voting in areas or pockets that were already red or liberal like Cambridge just increases an existing majority. This will be won and lost in the marginals and a number of those voted leave. So I do think that Brexit and tories could make some inroads . I don’t think Boris wins a landslide I never gave but a coalition with Brexit giving him a small majority I see as the likely outcome. Labour will rue not ditching Corbyn .
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How many seats do you think that the Brexit Party will win Cyber. Farage has cherry picked in the past and not been elected so what makes you think that this time they will start winning seats?
 
Brexit have to win seats for that to happen. They will lucky to get as many as Plaid.
 
They aren't winning any - maybe Farage if he goes to Boston or somewhere else in the East. There certainly won't be a coalition and at best a soft pact to not stand in ERG constituencies.

They will win it for the Tories though
 
Sniffer Grouse said:
The good thing is that Farage has moved his position over the years to only a no deal Brexit is good enough. Whilst Johnson is peddling the deal that even May couldn't stomach they will have difficulties coming to an arrangement. Can you really see the Conservatives not putting up candidates in English seats to give Farage a crack at them?
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Nobody including Farage really expects a No Deal Brexit imo.
It's all about brinkmanship and then compromise.
 
Depends where you think they are getting their votes from or more importantly where it matters. I'm calling Con majority of around 35/40
 
Sniffer Grouse said:
How many seats do you think that the Brexit Party will win Cyber. Farage has cherry picked in the past and not been elected so what makes you think that this time they will start winning seats?
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Up to ten. They will learn the lessons from UKIP in the last election and Farage will surround himself with the most electable . Labour will lose seats to the Lib Dem’s and Brexit. As they have already ruled out a labour liberal pact Tory win is the most likely to squeak in. Liberal snp opposition anyone? Labour really is that bad.
 
They will be getting some votes from labour but more from the conservatives. They will also potentially galvanise Lib-Dem votes in Lib-Con marginals and split the leave vote.

Everyone thinking this is a done thing needs to remember that both of the big parties are 99% certain to get wiped out in Scotland. That costs the Conservatives a larger number of seats than Labour.

Also, when it comes to negotiating a government on 13 December if parliament is hung there is not one single other party that would go into coalition with Boris (bar Brexit who won’t win many seats, if any at all).
 
Cyber-_-man said:
Up to ten. They will learn the lessons from UKIP in the last election and Farage will surround himself with the most electable . Labour will lose seats to the Lib Dem’s and Brexit. As they have already ruled out a labour liberal pact Tory win is the most likely to squeak in. Liberal snp opposition anyone? Labour really is that bad.
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So where will these seats be? The Conservatives will not step aside and allow a free run at even the most leave leaning seats so the vote will be split.
 
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsand...-this-be-a-springboard-for-the-party-in-2020/

Just an example to emphasise a point. 120 constituencies UKIP came second in 2015. Brexit could do better than them given their momentum. It’s all about timing and the timing is good for them I fear. I had always been a little left of centre so Brexit is an anomaly to my normal stance. I don’t see any party offering a credible pro Brexit alternative. In the eu elections I voted green. Now I don’t have a scooby
 
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/29/its-doing-my-head-in-uk-voters-sick-of-brexit-and-the-election

"Mary Jenkins, 87 – another Tory supporter who voted to leave the EU – said the debate around Brexit had been dragging on too long. “In the end it gets boring,” she said. “It has taken up a lot of my time because I live on my own and I put the TV on to see what’s on the news and you get hypnotised by it.”

Her message to politicians: “Get on with it before I kick the bucket.”

If you're that bored love, hurry up eh :wallbash:
 
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