REFERENDUM RESULTS AND DISCUSSION THREAD

[Deutsch Wolf]

I think that we've learnt of never saying never, with this whole charade.

Ok, it's vaguely conceivable Just as it is that Wolves could win 4-0 tomorrow night, but you'd say given all the factors in play that we can reliably predict, it's very, very unlikely.

If he gets a majority it'll be along the lines of what Cameron had in 2015 (12 I think) or Major in 1992 (21, and that evaporated by late 1996, they were a minority Government by the end)

 

[Kenny]

Have you seen the document doing the rounds that is supposedly the Labour plan for how to win?

It surely must be fake, it just has to be.

Dont eat bacon sarnies and avoid using rocks for lists?

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Ignore the Lib Dems - attack the Tories
Hide Jeremy but show lots of rallies to make him look popular
Talk Dickensian - it's near Christmas, mention cold and poverty
Don't waste resources in Scotland as the SNP are going to win every seat there
Amplify Labour media figures such as Pidcock and Lavery

What the hell could go wrong?

 

[Deleted Cyber]

If labour backed Brexit and ditched Corbyn they would win a landslide. But as neither will happen I can’t see labour holding seats in leave regions. Remember it was 9 3 in regions and Scotland and London are two of the three. Kenny, unfortunately has it nailed on . It’s Boris and Farage

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Farage is going to hold no power within Parliament if it's just him :icon_lol:

They aren't winning more than five seats and that's probably overstating it.

 

[Sniffer]

Labour back brexit. Are you insane.

Ditch the position of the vast majority of your membership and win a landslide?

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

There has been an election since the referendum. Labour seats in 'leave' areas didn't go blue then.

 

[Wilf Wolf]

Farage is going to hold no power within Parliament if it's just him :icon_lol:

They aren't winning more than five seats and that's probably overstating it.

If Brexit are sufficiently organised to win 5 seats that might be a good thing as their support could split Leave votes and in other constituencies Lib Dems or Labour could benefit.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

It would be better if they just took votes but not enough to win seats. If they do that in Lib-Con or Lab-Con marginals it could really damage the Conservatives.

 

[Deleted Cyber]

There has been an election since the referendum. Labour seats in 'leave' areas didn't go blue then.

That’s when they thought Corbyn was competent. He has proved anything but. I fear the Labour Party wakes up dead on 13th December.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Let's not rewrite history, he's always had rubbish national personal polling data, and a lot of people were predicting a 100+ seat majority for the Tories. They *had* their majority (small though it was). May thought it was easy to pile on top of that as Corbyn was viewed as completely unfit for purpose.

 

[Deleted Cyber]

Let's not rewrite history, he's always had rubbish national personal polling data, and a lot of people were predicting a 100+ seat majority for the Tories. They *had* their majority (small though it was). May thought it was easy to pile on top of that as Corbyn was viewed as completely unfit for purpose.

Look. I am not re writing history at all. Scotland votes snp. That’s that. Wales? Who the hell knows what happens there? Northern Ireland goes dup. London goes red. The 5 remaining regions voted leave and three of them by some distance. This election is about nothing other than Brexit for the majority. Died in the wool leave voters can’t wait to hit the polls and show the will of the people and get rid of this absolute shower of shysters. We may not like it. But it’s going to happen. No student vote , no 16 year old vote and no decent opposition. The U.K. is blue and it will either be Boris blue or Boris and Brexit blue. Either way labours dead. Liberals in opposition? It’s crazy town.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Simple fact

SNP are going to win every seat in Scotland bar Swinson's.

Lib-Dems will do well in anywhere that is remain. For a start, I bet they take Heidi Allen's seat to keep hold in that constituency.

London is going to fucking hate Boris pushing for a hard Brexit, but also completely distrusts Corbyn.

The Labour Heartlands will stay Labour because they always have and always will.

Those points aren't screaming huge Conservative majority.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Places like Redcar (just to pick one example) are not going to vote Tory. There will be tons of similar examples.

It isn't a single issue poll.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Look. I am not re writing history at all. Scotland votes snp. That’s that. Wales? Who the hell knows what happens there? Northern Ireland goes dup. London goes red. The 5 remaining regions voted leave and three of them by some distance. This election is about nothing other than Brexit for the majority. Died in the wool leave voters can’t wait to hit the polls and show the will of the people and get rid of this absolute shower of shysters. We may not like it. But it’s going to happen. No student vote , no 16 year old vote and no decent opposition. The U.K. is blue and it will either be Boris blue or Boris and Brexit blue. Either way labours dead. Liberals in opposition? It’s crazy town.

That's laughable. If dyed in the wool Leave are out so will be dyed in the wool remain.

Farage won't even win his own seat.

 

[Sniffer]

Look. I am not re writing history at all. Scotland votes snp. That’s that. Wales? Who the hell knows what happens there? Northern Ireland goes dup. London goes red. The 5 remaining regions voted leave and three of them by some distance. This election is about nothing other than Brexit for the majority. Died in the wool leave voters can’t wait to hit the polls and show the will of the people and get rid of this absolute shower of shysters. We may not like it. But it’s going to happen. No student vote , no 16 year old vote and no decent opposition. The U.K. is blue and it will either be Boris blue or Boris and Brexit blue. Either way labours dead. Liberals in opposition? It’s crazy town.

The DUP stand to lose seats as a no competition agreement with the UUP has ended so the Unionist vote stands to be split in marginal areas and the Nationalists stand to gain.

The vast majority of students will still be in their University towns/cities on 12th December..

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

And the idea that the whole of Northern Ireland goes DUP is the biggest fucking laugh of it all.

Err - so Sinn Fein and SDLP seats are going DUP? Do me a fucking favour.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

NI is irrelevant now for the purposes of forming a Tory government as none of them will get involved again thanks to the Human Sugar Puff.

If Sinn Fein made big gains then it would impact on the numbers as far as individual votes go as they're not present.

 

[The Saturday Boy]

The election might be all about Brexit but it will still come down to a handful of marginals. The Tories need a decent lead in the polls just to secure a relatively small majority and they are fighting on two fronts - trying to win marginals from Labour and defend marginals against the Lib Dems.

Labour’s promise of a second referendum is going to help them in some places and if they ditch the idea of trying to negotiate their own deal with the EU and just leave it as remain vs Johnson’s deal they will do themselves no harm. Lib Dem/Labour marginals are a rarity, I think there is only a couple and if Jo Swinson has got any sense she won’t target Labour/Con marginals.

There are some Labour/Con marginals where the Brexit Party might influence the outcome but they aren’t winning swathes of seats themselves. Another hung parliament is very much on the cards.

 

[arklowolf]

There will be an arrangement between The Brexit Party and The Conservatives regarding which seats they will contest. They are saying there wont be but it will be a massive gamble not to.
TBP wont win seats but they will take votes, mainly from The Cons.