Yeah, as we briefly went through earlier:
- Let's be charitable and say all the seats from the whipless Tories stay Tory (either with the current MP, whip reinstated, or someone else in a blue rosette). So puts them back at their old majority of er, 0 from a few weeks ago.
- But you've lost 10 DUP seats propping you up, they're gone. Totally out of the equation now in terms of helping the Tories govern. If another Northern Irish party wins them, they aren't helping either. -10
- 16 seats in Scotland. Let's be charitable once more and say they only lose 10. -20
- 21 seats in London. Some will cling on, plenty of others won't. Split it halfway again and call it another 10. -30
- Let's grant the Lib Dems a conservative (no pun intended) 10 seats across the South of England which they are going to aggressively target. -40
Right, so they need to hold every single non-London/Scots marginal that they currently have AND pick up *at least* 40 seats in areas where they don't have a great history. This is to get a majority of....0.
Talk of a thumping Johnson majority is way off the scale, won't happen.