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REFERENDUM RESULTS AND DISCUSSION THREAD

Tony Towner said:
Irrespective of how badly Brexit goes, the pound is sacrosanct. I don't see any scenario whereby we join the Euro and Brexit being a disaster makes it even more unlikely from an inflationary perspective
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Simply put, I think the economic outcome of Brexit will destroy the pound. I think we will be forced into this as a position because our weak hand became non-existent.
 
Aikiwolf said:
Simply put, I think the economic outcome of Brexit will destroy the pound. I think we will be forced into this as a position because our weak hand became non-existent.
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That's my point though, how do you make a screwed pound convert to the Euro without inflation and interest rates spiralling out of control? It would make the failed ERM experiment look like an economic blip.
 
Tony Towner said:
That's my point though, how do you make a screwed pound convert to the Euro without inflation and interest rates spiralling out of control? It would make the failed ERM experiment look like an economic blip.
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I think it will simply be a condition of rentering the EU. I genuinely think Brexit has the potential to be so bad we have to beg to save our country.

Anyway, heading to bed (Need to be fresh for Everton) if I don't reply that's the reason!
 
Aikiwolf said:
Simply put, I think the economic outcome of Brexit will destroy the pound. I think we will be forced into this as a position because our weak hand became non-existent.
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That’s the same stuff that was said if we didn’t enter the euro in the first place, and what would happen the day after the brexit vote if we voted leave. Britain is not Greece that it has such a small economy that it can’t cope without a bigger pool of support, no matter how much some might wish it was. It’s going to have a knock on our economy, and the eurozone, but the Armageddon stuff is just daft.
 
The post-Brexit forecasts were based on a) us invoking A50 inside hours of the result and b) Gideon imposing his own stupid "emergency" budget, which would have torpedoed the economy, neither of which happened.

We're already looking at as much of 5% loss of GDP every year and this isn't even the worst case scenario, it's economic suicide.
 
Aikiwolf said:
I have to say Papper, I completely disagree with your views on Brexit but to blame one side who offered a solution we turned down (the "May Deal" for want of a better term) as the reason this negotiation has failed seems odd? It is probably one of the most difficult negotions ever to occur and the people who have wanted to leave have failed us in offering a realistic vision of how our future looks.

My money is on a hard Brexit with a total, two footed, re-entry into Europe within 5 years inc a single currency and reduced powers of veto (because we have lost these through Brexit).
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The May deal would have left us a vassal state and was rightly voted down. It was Brexit in name only. I'm all for extending Article 50 again but I just don't see that consensus will ever be reached on the back-stop so is it worth it? In six months time we will have another stalemate that the clowns can't resolve. Nobody ever said " we'll leave the EU if you vote for it but if we can't negotiate a mutual position in respect of Ireland we won't " - but that is essentially what's happening. As goes the back-stop Johnson has been told to fuck off so he's now waving his cock and acting like a spoilt brat. Let's hope they can sort it .. i am very skeptical. Surely a separate clause within the Single Market agreement that applies specifically to EIRE and NI, given the unique position is possible? Something in respect of goods and services that originate within the landmass of Ireland (North and South). I think the leavers who suspect that ' You're the using the back-stop as an excuse to overturn the result of the referendum need to be shut up ' even if some are.
 
Aikiwolf said:
Simply put, I think the economic outcome of Brexit will destroy the pound. I think we will be forced into this as a position because our weak hand became non-existent.
Click to expand...

Uncertainty doesn't help but the £ has always fluctuated depending on trading conditions. The £ has been at this level before - well before the referendum was proposed. I don't see any country within Europe wanting to fuck themselves over in respect of tariffs. I stand corrected but i'm sure a mutually beneficial trade deal has already been written up. As it stands investment into the UK since 2016 is more than both Germany and France put together.
 
Papper said:
The May deal would have left us a vassal state and was rightly voted down. It was Brexit in name only. I'm all for extending Article 50 again but I just don't see that consensus will ever be reached on the back-stop so is it worth it? In six months time we will have another stalemate that the clowns can't resolve. Nobody ever said " we'll leave the EU if you vote for it but if we can't negotiate a mutual position in respect of Ireland we won't " - but that is essentially what's happening. As goes the back-stop Johnson has been told to fuck off so he's now waving his cock and acting like a spoilt brat. Let's hope they can sort it .. i am very skeptical. Surely a separate clause within the Single Market agreement that applies specifically to EIRE and NI, given the unique position is possible? Something in respect of goods and services that originate within the landmass of Ireland (North and South). I think the leavers who suspect that ' You're the using the back-stop as an excuse to overturn the result of the referendum need to be shut up ' even if some are.
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Which parts of May’s deal turned us into a vassal state?
 
However we leave, we're not going to turn into Venezuela overnight. It'll just be a bit shit for a while, but we'll survive. What really sticks in my craw is that I am sure there is no longer a majority in the country that wants to leave. We're never going to get a deal, so just have ref2: stay in/crash out. Even if I'm wrong, I'd be happy, or at least willing, to accept the result since, unlike ref1, the choice would would be both democratic and informed: the will of the people, not parliamentary jingoists and racists following their own agendas. We don't stick with the result of a GE ad infinitum - indeed, there are likely to end up being two GEs since ref1. They're terrified that an enlightened public will see sense. Seems a bit like I imagine rational Germans in the 1930s must have felt, being dragged down a path no sane person would take by a psychotic, self-serving cabal. Will Parliament save the day? This is going to make a great film in 50 years' time; just not sure whether it will be a tragedy or a farce. Probably both.
 
Tom Hark said:
However we leave, we're not going to turn into Venezuela overnight. It'll just be a bit shit for a while, but we'll survive. What really sticks in my craw is that I am sure there is no longer a majority in the country that wants to leave. We're never going to get a deal, so just have ref2: stay in/crash out. Even if I'm wrong, I'd be happy, or at least willing, to accept the result since, unlike ref1, the choice would would be both democratic and informed: the will of the people, not parliamentary jingoists and racists following their own agendas. We don't stick with the result of a GE ad infinitum - indeed, there are likely to end up being two GEs since ref1. They're terrified that an enlightened public will see sense. Seems a bit like I imagine rational Germans in the 1930s must have felt, being dragged down a path no sane person would take by a psychotic, self-serving cabal. Will Parliament save the day? This is going to make a great film in 50 years' time; just not sure whether it will be a tragedy or a farce. Probably both.
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The recent EURO Elections suggest the leave vote isn't waining and the referendum was the only solution to the infighting in the circus. Big week ahead in the circus but we perhaps we need the pantomime of a another general election. Sadly Farage will most likely be involved - but maybe Corbyn can implement much of what was contained in the Single Market agreement through Westminster because the Cons will be finished. How the hell did we cope before we joined the EU? Westminster making decisions and strategy planning on it's own appears to be everybody's worst nightmare. Those clowns need the French, Germans, Poles, Bulgarians & Romanians as evidenced by the last three years.
 
Papper said:
The recent EURO Elections suggest the leave vote isn't waining and the referendum was the only solution to the infighting in the circus. Big week ahead in the circus but we perhaps we need the pantomime of a another general election. Sadly Farage will most likely be involved - but maybe Corbyn can implement much of what was contained in the Single Market agreement through Westminster because the Cons will be finished. How the hell did we cope before we joined the EU? Westminster making decisions and strategy planning on it's own appears to be everybody's worst nightmare. Those clowns need the French, Germans, Poles, Bulgarians & Romanians as evidenced by the last three years.
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More votes were cast for anti no deal parties than pro
 
Papper said:
If you treat it as a single issue (Remain or Stay) you cannot include the Labour Party as a remain party .... they were somewhere else in the ether.
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They are and were clearly against No Deal which is the point I made
 
Tony Towner said:
They are and were clearly against No Deal which is the point I made
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Fair point ( I am also anti-No deal) and if I'm honest would care to see Corbyn returned in the next election. I was responding to Tom Hark's comment that there is no longer a leave majority. To be fair it has been pointed out by the stats guru that the EU vote is not reflective of how Ref2 would be cast.
 
Papper said:
Fair point ( I am also anti-No deal) and if I'm honest would care to see Corbyn returned in the next election. I was responding to Tom Hark's comment that there is no longer a leave majority. To be fair it has been pointed out by the stats guru that the EU vote is not reflective of how Ref2 would be cast.
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It was an opinion rather than an assertion, but one I'd be happy to have tested in Ref2. The fact there's so much opposition to that test from the leavers is, perhaps, telling.
 
Tom Hark said:
It was an opinion rather than an assertion, but one I'd be happy to have tested in Ref2. The fact there's so much opposition to that test from the leavers is, perhaps, telling.
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Maybe best of five peoples votes? If remain win the next one we will have concerns that they don't know what they were doing and were ill-informed.
 
Why not?

Especially as ten minutes after the exit poll in 2016 suggested a remain victory, Nigel fucking Farage was all over the telly bleating "this isn't over, we will have another vote if it is as close as suggested"

Every leaver saying "you lost, its over" seems to conveniently forget that interview. As does Farage himself.
 
Nothing at all dodgy about that interview from Nige at all...nothing
 
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