REFERENDUM RESULTS AND DISCUSSION THREAD

[Tony Towner]

No it's a point of negotiation, you take that away and we are helpless. No deal damages both UK and EU neither wants that but you have to make it clear that we are leaving without a full agreement to get the best from it.

I negotiate with major corporations, good god I would have loathed May's position but she failed miserably.

We need them no doubt but they need us too and there is much common ground we can agree on before we leave, plus we already have deals lined up for WTO so it was never a WTO only scenario.

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I've been on more negotiation courses than I care to remember. Every single one tells you about sanctions, when to play them and ensure they are credible when doing so.

No deal is not a credible sanction, you play it and your bluff gets called because we have so much more to lose than they do as individual countries.

 

[MARKakaJIM]

Point is they are investing in the UK and they plan to continue to do so. The Japanese are more anal than anyone and have more faith than most. The machine tool industry is quite complicated as I'm sure you appreciate but for me it was surprisingly positive towards Brexit.

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It's just a single focused look at one very small part of the economy though isn't it? So this one company thinks they'll be fine and can continue to invest their money into the UK, that's great for them and the people they employ but what if there is another company going South for every Mazak-esque success?

I'd be interested to see if there was anything had been looked at in detail where I work, can't think of any EU nationals we currently employ to be affected on labour and both our clients and subcontractors are predominantly UK based so anything that happens tariff wise shouldn't have any direct effect financially. I imagine it'll have huge impact on the subcontractors that we employ though, they'll almost all be heavily reliant on both labour and materials from the EU, and elsewhere, so any restrictions or tariffs could cause them huge problems. That potentially creates problems further up the food chain for us, some subcontractors may go bump completely in the face of rising costs and depleting labour resources, others may just have to scale their operations back due to labour or credit limits and all of that would significantly reduce our opportunity to 'shop around' so subcontractors could hike their prices knowing they're in demand with less competition. I could see a massive drop off in productivity due to the lack of available labour and then a wave of inflation as everyone ends up having to try and entice the limited resources to work for them rather than the competition.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

I admire your politeness and candour, Siggy, but ultimately you asked why Nigel Farage is racist and why we shouldn't vote for him.

I showed you why on both counts and others have chipped in too, you haven't moved. You have Muzak UK on your side.

Bit of a lost cause really, isn't it. I'm only going to argue if there's a point to it. I did try.

 

[Siggy]

I've been on more negotiation courses than I care to remember. Every single one tells you about sanctions, when to play them and ensure they are credible when doing so.

No deal is not a credible sanction, you play it and your bluff gets called because we have so much more to lose than they do as individual countries.

No deal is the fantasy everyone knows won't happen. We will operate with the EU in the bargaining arena to find common ground. The pressure comes on walk away points from both sides, which is where the real concessions start.

I find that aspect of it fascinating.


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[Templeton Peck]

Try talking to people that are actually out there rather than those that guess what’s out there and you’ll see a total different picture.

The economy is booming and the only thing that is holding the economy back is lack of resources.

The economy is booming? It don't feel like it.

 

[Siggy]

I admire your politeness and candour, Siggy, but ultimately you asked why Nigel Farage is racist and why we shouldn't vote for him.

I showed you why on both counts and others have chipped in too, you haven't moved. You have Muzak UK on your side.

Bit of a lost cause really, isn't it. I'm only going to argue if there's a point to it. I did try.

Never a lost cause I will read all the links you kindly posted. I had only briefly scanned as we talked. I won't promise anything but this type of talk is way more likely to convert that the hateful bile I read elsewhere.

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[Tony Towner]

No deal is the fantasy everyone knows won't happen. We will operate with the EU in the bargaining arena to find common ground. The pressure comes on walk away points from both sides, which is where the real concessions start.

I find that aspect of it fascinating.


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Yes, but again the 'who blinks first' strategy is based on two premises. Firstly that each party has an equal amount to lose/gain and secondly that you are really prepared to walk away. The first is patently not the case, the second wouldn't be ideal for the EU but would economically cripple us. It's why all the "no deal is better than a bad deal" rhetoric was so misplaced at the beginning, it wasn't credible.

 

[Siggy]

It's just a single focused look at one very small part of the economy though isn't it? So this one company thinks they'll be fine and can continue to invest their money into the UK, that's great for them and the people they employ but what if there is another company going South for every Mazak-esque success?

I'd be interested to see if there was anything had been looked at in detail where I work, can't think of any EU nationals we currently employ to be affected on labour and both our clients and subcontractors are predominantly UK based so anything that happens tariff wise shouldn't have any direct effect financially. I imagine it'll have huge impact on the subcontractors that we employ though, they'll almost all be heavily reliant on both labour and materials from the EU, and elsewhere, so any restrictions or tariffs could cause them huge problems. That potentially creates problems further up the food chain for us, some subcontractors may go bump completely in the face of rising costs and depleting labour resources, others may just have to scale their operations back due to labour or credit limits and all of that would significantly reduce our opportunity to 'shop around' so subcontractors could hike their prices knowing they're in demand with less competition. I could see a massive drop off in productivity due to the lack of available labour and then a wave of inflation as everyone ends up having to try and entice the limited resources to work for them rather than the competition.

It is probably larger than you think but I accept a niche of it. A machine tool makes parts, Makak make the machine tools that make parts mostly for the aerospace and automotive markets. People are buying machine tools at record highs that have continued to increase despite Brexit.

More machine tools = more parts = more planes & cars in basic terms.

But it's not just Mazak it's other machine tool companies too.

I'm scratching my head on this one every day looking for the answer.

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[Tony Towner]

It is probably larger than you think but I accept a niche of it. A machine tool makes parts, Makak make the machine tools that make parts mostly for the aerospace and automotive markets. People are buying machine tools at record highs that have continued to increase despite Brexit.

More machine tools = more parts = more planes & cars in basic terms.

But it's not just Mazak it's other machine tool companies too.

I'm scratching my head on this one every day looking for the answer.

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My guess is that the industry you are in is manufacturing parts for export or to be used in finished goods which will eventually be exported. The weak pound will strengthen that industry and make goods attractive. That was always one of the key leaver arguments and if we had a strong manufacturing base would be a reasonable justification for leaving. Unfortunately we are a net importer therefore as decent an upside as it will be for some the net balance for the nation is negative.

 

[MARKakaJIM]

It is probably larger than you think but I accept a niche of it. A machine tool makes parts, Makak make the machine tools that make parts mostly for the aerospace and automotive markets. People are buying machine tools at record highs that have continued to increase despite Brexit.

More machine tools = more parts = more planes & cars in basic terms.

But it's not just Mazak it's other machine tool companies too.

I'm scratching my head on this one every day looking for the answer.

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Would this not be a reaction to the chances Brexit upsets a lot of existing supply chains where these parts are currently sourced from EU manufacturers? Now with the prospect of those routes of supply being disrupted by tariffs and border checks the emphasis is shifting from buying them in from mainland Europe to finding UK based manufacturers, thus avoiding tariffs and customs checks, so your machine tool manufacturers have their eyes lighting up at this potential new market in the UK where the manufacturers are looking to expand operations and pick up the shortfall of what used to be bought across the channel.

It's great news for those companies making machine parts and the UK manufacturers buying those parts are probably pretty excited by the prospect of ramping up their production and stealing orders from their competitors in the EU too but I doubt it's such great news for the companies that are buying these parts to build planes, cars, engine or whatever else. Presumably the reason a lot of companies went for EU suppliers originally was that they were the more cost effective options, money talks louder than pretty much anything else in business, and it's only escalating costs due to post-Brexit tariffs and restrictions that make the UK suppliers viable so now they're suffering from inflation in their supply chain, which could restrict their output if the cashflow is tight or make their products more expensive maybe even ultimately unaffordable in some cases. What if their businesses collapse as a result? Then the UK suppliers that were buying up machine tools and expanding their operations start losing their market, they might look to take on their EU counterparts selling into mainland Europe but now they're hampered by the tariffs and checks too so they're fighting a losing battle and their intial optimism turns out to be shortlived as they can't break into any other markets.

It's going to be very complicated to piece the whole thing together and get any sort of idea how it plays out at a national level but i think it's a bit naive to focus on one particular business and make assumptions based on that, it's far too narrow a view.

 

[Siggy]

My guess is that the industry you are in is manufacturing parts for export or to be used in finished goods which will eventually be exported. The weak pound will strengthen that industry and make goods attractive. That was always one of the key leaver arguments and if we had a strong manufacturing base would be a reasonable justification for leaving. Unfortunately we are a net importer therefore as decent an upside as it will be for some the net balance for the nation is negative.

Yes mostly correct a good proportion of what we do involves at some stage an exported product.

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[Siggy]

Would this not be a reaction to the chances Brexit upsets a lot of existing supply chains where these parts are currently sourced from EU manufacturers? Now with the prospect of those routes of supply being disrupted by tariffs and border checks the emphasis is shifting from buying them in from mainland Europe to finding UK based manufacturers, thus avoiding tariffs and customs checks, so your machine tool manufacturers have their eyes lighting up at this potential new market in the UK where the manufacturers are looking to expand operations and pick up the shortfall of what used to be bought across the channel.

It's great news for those companies making machine parts and the UK manufacturers buying those parts are probably pretty excited by the prospect of ramping up their production and stealing orders from their competitors in the EU too but I doubt it's such great news for the companies that are buying these parts to build planes, cars, engine or whatever else. Presumably the reason a lot of companies went for EU suppliers originally was that they were the more cost effective options, money talks louder than pretty much anything else in business, and it's only escalating costs due to post-Brexit tariffs and restrictions that make the UK suppliers viable so now they're suffering from inflation in their supply chain, which could restrict their output if the cashflow is tight or make their products more expensive maybe even ultimately unaffordable in some cases. What if their businesses collapse as a result? Then the UK suppliers that were buying up machine tools and expanding their operations start losing their market, they might look to take on their EU counterparts selling into mainland Europe but now they're hampered by the tariffs and checks too so they're fighting a losing battle and their intial optimism turns out to be shortlived as they can't break into any other markets.

It's going to be very complicated to piece the whole thing together and get any sort of idea how it plays out at a national level but i think it's a bit naive to focus on one particular business and make assumptions based on that, it's far too narrow a view.

Quite possible.

Planes, cars, engines... Pretty much anything that involves a metallic part. Even replacement hips and products for the Pharma industry.

Everything I read prior to the 2016 vote pointed to exactly the opposite of what is happening now, your summary could well answer part of that but why didn't our experts predict this?


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[Penk Wolf]

The economy is booming? It don't feel like it.

Why doesn’t it?

 

[The Saturday Boy]

Why doesn’t it?

Probably because by all credible economic indicators....it isn’t booming.

 

[Penk Wolf]

Probably because by all credible economic indicators....it isn’t booming.

Even using your ‘credible economic indicators’ GDP is up more than the Euro Zone, although GDP stats are bullshit anyway.

Unemployment is extremely low, in fact I’d say it’s at zero percent if you take out those that don’t want to work or are unable to work. You’ll say about zero hours contract, but in current climate anyone on a zero hour contract is either lazy or it suits them.

Talk to people, I don’t think I’ve spoke to a single person over the last 12 months that hasn’t said how well they are doing and how they are struggling to recruit.

Those are the things that tell me the economy is booming, not selective statistics.

 

[Tony Towner]

How about record numbers of people being homeless, unprecedented usage of food banks, 25% of children living in poverty in the EU being British?

 

[Penk Wolf]

How about record numbers of people being homeless, unprecedented usage of food banks, 25% of children living in poverty in the EU being British?

Is that a reflection on the economy or the society?

 

[YoungWolf]

You’ll say about zero hours contract, but in current climate anyone on a zero hour contract is either lazy or it suits them.

.

That’s just simply not true

 

[Tony Towner]

I'd say it's the reality of what the economy offers certain sections of society.

 

[Penk Wolf]

That’s just simply not true

Isn’t it?

Well there is plenty of unfilled jobs out there that aren’t zero hour contracts, so if you’re not happy been on a zero hour contract try applying for them. We own a pub and 5 people are on zero hour contracts and when asked whether they want more hours they all said they were happy with the hours they were doing.

Look how many people currently work in recruitment and how many new recruitment companies are popping up. Why do you think that is?