REFERENDUM RESULTS AND DISCUSSION THREAD

[Tyrannosaurus Dan]

:confused-smiley-013 dunno is he? Didnt listen to it just heard the presenter put him in his box and knew the tone was set. Much like on here when I post something the three amigos pop up en masse :icon_lol:

So a man gets called out for talking bollocks by someone who gives him the facts and you are comparing yourself to that man...?

 

[Tredman]

Wonder whether UKIP and the brexiters will take responsibility for the round Syrian refugee getting beaten up and waterboarded. Won't hold my breath.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

The press conference from Mark Carney was fairly brutal.

In a No Deal Brexit the head of the Bank of England predicts

a 25% fall in the value of the pound
30% to be wiped off house prices
8-9% wiped off GDP
much higher inflation
a series of increases in interest rates

Well, he is the pretty much top end expert.

And that makes no deal look REALLY enticing to me.

If the T-Bag deal gets voted down (if???? hahaha WHEN) the only possible solution to avoid complete financial meltdown is to abandon the whole fucking thing.

But...project fear, project fear - NOTE THIS IS THE GOVERNOR OF THE BANK OF ENGLAND saying this.

 

[Penk Wolf]

It also said it was the very worst case scenario not his prediction.

 

[lemonjelly]

I have an issue with people predicting the future especially as 100% of the time they are wrong.

It’s all guesswork (obviously) and does nobody any favours.

Like you’ve inadvertently pointed out estimates in two articles are already 1.1% apart, which is massive.

Agreed. But my point was that we canvas as much relevant information as possible. Whilst the economists won't be spot on, and vary in their conclusions, there is a huge, significant majority of them who are predicting reductions.
Yes, I've pointed to 2 studies which conclude a 1.1% difference, and yes that difference may be massive. Buts they're both negative. Almost all the forecasts are negative. Which surely highlights huge risk. Possibly unnecessary risk. I'm not seeing any positive forecasts. Maybe I'm not looking in the right places?

That reduction in GDP will result in (for a period of time at least - we don't know how long) reduced funding for health, transport, education, the arts, social care, and numerous other essential aspects of life. Numerous academic studies have shown that reduced public spending results in increased earlier deaths. Preventable deaths. We've had that since 2010. We're risking that for the next 10-20 years. Thats my parents, yours, maybe even us, dying early as a result.

 

[Tredman]

Yep, i'd imagine Penk's closest hospital is Stafford same as me. Best hope no one gets seriously I'll at rush hour else we are all fucked trying to get to Stoke or Wolverhampton.

 

[Deleted Cyber]

So a man gets called out for talking bollocks by someone who gives him the facts and you are comparing yourself to that man...?

Meh cheap shot you can do better

Have another go

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

It also said it was the very worst case scenario not his prediction.

Well the best case was something like 5% off GDP as well. Let's all get the fucking bunting out.

 

[Penk Wolf]

Agreed. But my point was that we canvas as much relevant information as possible. Whilst the economists won't be spot on, and vary in their conclusions, there is a huge, significant majority of them who are predicting reductions.
Yes, I've pointed to 2 studies which conclude a 1.1% difference, and yes that difference may be massive. Buts they're both negative. Almost all the forecasts are negative. Which surely highlights huge risk. Possibly unnecessary risk. I'm not seeing any positive forecasts. Maybe I'm not looking in the right places?

That reduction in GDP will result in (for a period of time at least - we don't know how long) reduced funding for health, transport, education, the arts, social care, and numerous other essential aspects of life. Numerous academic studies have shown that reduced public spending results in increased earlier deaths. Preventable deaths. We've had that since 2010. We're risking that for the next 10-20 years. Thats my parents, yours, maybe even us, dying early as a result.

I’ve said from the very start, even before any voted, that I expect short term pain for long term gain, so I don’t for one minute think GDP will grow, I just object to people putting figures to it. I also think (and said a few posts ago) companies are stagnating due to lack of resources and ways they are looking to move forward without the extra resources and the extra resources that will be available from those that will struggle due to Brexit will soften the drop in GDP blow.

As for people dying early, had my dad been his age 20 years ago I don’t think he’d be alive now. Due to today’s drugs and medicines people’s life span is getting longer and longer.

 

[Penk Wolf]

Yep, i'd imagine Penk's closest hospital is Stafford same as me. Best hope no one gets seriously I'll at rush hour else we are all fucked trying to get to Stoke or Wolverhampton.

Had to go to New Cross A&E the other night after my daughter had a traffic cone bounced off her head. I did joke with her that it should have happened half an hour early as we could have gone to Stafford.

 

[Penk Wolf]

Well the best case was something like 5% off GDP as well. Let's all get the fucking bunting out.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp....exit-would-trigger-uk-recession-eu-referendum

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

I know.

Does ANY scenario there say ANYTHING other than the economy will be worse than staying? No it doesn't.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

If Brexit is disruptive rather than disorderly, GDP falls 3% over the five years to 2022, house prices slide 14%, and unemployment reaches 5.75%

If a close trading relationship is agreed, the economy could still be 1% smaller than if the UK had remained in the EU but 1.5% higher than the bank's most recent estimate.

If it is less close, the economy's growth could be 3.75% less than if the UK had remained in the EU and 0.75% less than forecast over the last inflation report.

These figures cover the period to 2023.

FUCKING BRILLIANT I CANT FUCKING WAIT

 

[Penk Wolf]

I know.

Does ANY scenario there say ANYTHING other than the economy will be worse than staying? No it doesn't.

It’s from 2016 saying we’d be in a recession in 2017 and GDP will drop by 5.5% by 2019.

 

[Tony Towner]

Also came out that a free trade deal with the US and China would only add 0.1% to GDP, another unicorn shot.

 

[Tredman]

Add 4 years for pissing around and its probably right.

We are so overly dependent on the financial services it will probably take a while to filter downward, we will feel the shit eventually though.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

It’s from 2016 saying we’d be in a recession in 2017 and GDP will drop by 5.5% by 2019.

Based on Gideon's emergency Budget*, no?



*Ie, Gideon gets to go full austerity, which he'd have absolutely loved, the diabolical prick.

 

[Tony Towner]

Yep, i'd imagine Penk's closest hospital is Stafford same as me. Best hope no one gets seriously I'll at rush hour else we are all fucked trying to get to Stoke or Wolverhampton.

They are going to close Telford's A&E as well at night, directing them to New Cross or Shrewsbury

 

[Tredman]

They are going to close Telford's A&E as well at night, directing them to New Cross or Shrewsbury

It's a slippery slope, Stafford regularly refuse serious emergencies during day time now, no kids ward too.

My ex-brother in law is one who would be dead if it happened now, he had an abdominal aortic aneurysm. Would have been dead without a proper hospital within 15 mins. Plenty of stories of people who have died on the M6 north to Stoke in ambulances too.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Awesome as New Cross is already overwhelmed.