REFERENDUM RESULTS AND DISCUSSION THREAD

[leedswolf]

I'm still struggling with cyber's idea

Yes, the pound is likely to fall. And this is likely to be combined with imported goods being more expensive to buy and in all likelihood tariffs on our exports making our businesses less competitive. But the plus side is that there is going to be hardship, and this will encourage those that don't like it to make a choice to leave, and this will then leave those that stay with more wages to divvy up leading to a rise in overall wage levels at some point in the future.

That all sounds rather too much like Zimbabwe when the Zanu-PF took over.

Brexit could have a massive impact on the UK construction labour market.

 

[Templeton Peck]

Or possibly because our GDP is 2,850 billion against Norway's being 523 billion?

You'd never know it based on the standards of living.

 

[Deleted Cyber]

Brexit could have a massive impact on the UK construction labour market.

Brexit COULD have an impact on many things. Some positively. You never know.

 

[SLA]

So basically we're crossing our fingers and hoping someone has left an inflated bouncy castle at the bottom of the cliff.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

This isn't Field of Dreams, just hoping that something will happen contrary to all evidence and expert opinion is not a strategy.

 

[Penk Wolf]

You'd never know it based on the standards of living.

Higher GDP per person?

 

[Templeton Peck]

Higher GDP per person?

Yep.

Also higher public spending, state owns much larger proportion of national wealth and less inequality than UK.

 

[Keef]

Invested its oil wealth income wisely as well,rather than pissing it away like we have

 

[Tom Hark]

Why do we keep adding 'plus' on the end of it (or 'plus plus plus' as I heard some cunt on the news say yesterday)?

Are we just presuming we are automatically entitled to a better deal than countries like Norway because we are the UK and we're fucking ace?

That's the inference its advocates would like people to take from it, I'm sure. In reality it probably means same, plus a tiny bit of difference.

Any agreement on the Norway idea rather depends on being allowed to negotiate again.

Which has been made categorically clear by both sides is not on the table.

I think 'categorically clear' when a politician says it doesn't always follow the dictionary definition.

 

[Johnny75]

Yep.

Also higher public spending, state owns much larger proportion of national wealth and less inequality than UK.

You can't have been to Norway then.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Oh, quite possibly. In fact I am damn sure that our politicians of many hues would love to renegotiate.

Sadly, the EU are the issue here. And they are the ones who have been absolutely categoric that it is this shitpile or nothing. We can wheedle, we can whine, we can throw toys. None of that changes something I have been saying for two years. They hold every card.

Interestingly The Express is running a story tonight that Brexiteers are preparing for the "worst case scenario" of a second referendum being called (which of course they are confident of winning). Now, normally I take any Express story with half a salt-pan, but in the role that they have positioned themselves as the absolute head Brexit paper, the fact this is coming out suggests that second referendum momentum might be gathering.

 

[Wilf Wolf]

Hard-line Brexiteers are beginning to realise that the chances of a harder Brexit than Chequers have almost completely disappeared as things stand. Despite their bluster they know No Deal is never going to get through Parliament, and given the EUs stance and a ticking clock there is absolutely no way they will get their wishes as things stand. Their only hope is another Referendum produces another Brexit majority and Boris, Rees-Mogg and co get to play poker in renewed negotiations.

They probably believe that the public believed their promises last time and that they can win a second vote. If there is a Public Vote we'll end up remaining in the EU as most voters can now see that there are no easy answers to so many issues, and one issue, the Irish Border, is no closer to a solution than when it was first raised. Further there are a lot of people who just want it done with and the only way they'll get that is vote to Remain and put it to bed.

I'm beginning to believe Brexit will never happen.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Every word, brother, every word.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Their problem in that scenario is that they absolutely cannot use the same playbook as last time as pretty much all their claims have been debunked as total horseshit, and a dwindling number of people are clinging to the hope that "we're Britain, we'll be alright" (essentially the political equivalent of being a Villa fan over the last three years). They don't have any fresh evidence to back up their ideology and they don't have any particular star quality there that will be willing to fight passionately - Johnson and Gove won't want to be tarred with it, Farage is done politically - so where do they go. You're relying on most if not all of the 52% (a sizeable chunk of whom are dead, remember) going with the mindset of "the bloody elite don't respect my vote, I am going to vote the same way as a massive fuck you". And not enough of the 52% are that stupid. Plus Remain would learn at least some of the lessons from last time and make an actual case this time, it isn't David Cameron doing the bidding now.

Brexiters are completely convinced that they are in the right and completely convinced that the public are behind them, and yet wouldn't in a million years choose to put the vote back to the public. Funny that.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Plus several hundred thousand disenfranchised 16- to 18-year-olds would get to vote in a second go. And I could comprehensively state that 90% plus of them would vote remain. And those replace the dead Brexiter votes.

 

[Tony Towner]

Plus several hundred thousand disenfranchised 16- to 18-year-olds would get to vote in a second go. And I could comprehensively state that 90% plus of them would vote remain. And those replace the dead Brexiter votes.

I've posted this before, but by mid January age demographics alone would move the vote to remain even if everybody else voted exactly the same way. I appreciate there are assumptions made at both ends of that spectrum.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

You are absolutely and certainly right.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...0-refuses-to-publish-full-brexit-legal-advice

How on earth is this Government this shit?

They mess absolutely everything up.

 

[Wilf Wolf]

May has actually played a blinder without having a clue what she has achieved.

Dither, prevaricate, introduce red lines that were unrealistic, piss off two Brexit secretaries, get the EU to give a take-it-or-leave-it offer, and all the time the clock has been ticking down giving no time to change what is on offer. If she'd achieved this by design she would be hailed a genius, but as we all know there is a fine line between genius and insanity.

 

[Deleted Cyber]

Fuck I would laugh if Brexit won a second vote. Where the fuck would remain go then?

The trouble is apathy. I reckon you get a 60% turn out max. All the Grey's get the postal vote. I thought remain would win first time. They can't have a binary second choice So a pr vote?

Face up. We are leaving. It's toast. The bridges are being burnt even if May gets beaten. I still have a sneaky feeling that horrendous deal gets through.