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REFERENDUM RESULTS AND DISCUSSION THREAD


I am going to make a prediction...that Labour will shortly do an about turn in Brexit and further, it was pre-planned. My evidence is wholly made up but as with all the best conspiracy theories it is based on some facts.

Momentum moved to remove Brexit from last year’s conference debate and excluded leading MPs from the conference hall creating significant resentment from the known group of MPs who are anti Corbyn above all else. This pushed them to adopt Brexit as the sole issue with which to campaign against Corbyn.

Labour set 6 test that any deal has to meet to get Labour’s support. I don’t think anyone believes those 6 objectives are achievable when the cabinet is so split.

Once it is clear that the 6 tests can’t be met, the party leadership under pre-orchestrated pressure from the membership (Mimentum) will, in an act portrayed as the Democratic will of the Labour Party, provide support for a second referendum on the deal knowing it will be a de facto vote of confidence in the government.

The referendum on the deal leads to a no vote which will result in the government falling, the EU agreeing to extend the A50 deadline and a new General Election.

The promised White Paper could be the trigger if it doesn’t meet the 6 tests.

Or the Labour Party will stumble from one vague Brexit position to another.

Whether my conspiracy theory is correct or not, the Labour Party has to adopt support for a second referendum (either on the deal or even in whether to leave) sooner rather than later because their current position is unsustainable.
 
His "pro-Brexit" stance made no sense as it would be the start of restrictions on workers rights so I really hope the scenario outlined above as a means to force a 2nd referendum is correct
He's an idealist though and sees a constructed, political, amorphous, not significantly democratic, institution as contrary to his own beliefs. Let's not forget that Corbyn campaigning actively for a remain vote in 2016 rather than the passive way in which he did conduct himself would possibly have resulted in a different result. His actions then and for the subsequent 2 years will always be a stain on any positive change for good he may achieve in the future.
 
He's an idealist though and sees a constructed, political, amorphous, not significantly democratic, institution as contrary to his own beliefs. Let's not forget that Corbyn campaigning actively for a remain vote in 2016 rather than the passive way in which he did conduct himself would possibly have resulted in a different result. His actions then and for the subsequent 2 years will always be a stain on any positive change for good he may achieve in the future.

This has largely been debunked. In the months leading up to the referendum the remain support amongst Labour Party supporters remained pretty static, it was the drop in support for remain amongst Conservative supporters that swung the result in favour of leave. The only way Corbyn is held responsible for this is if you believe that Conservative supporters would have been swayed by the Labour leader.

The narrative put forward by Corbyn opponents within his own party became a stick to beat him with regardless of the evidence. The outcome of the referendum rests solely with David Cameron.
 
There is significant hole in that argument though as it ignores the Labour leavers who may have been convinced to change their opinion by an engaged Labour leader arguing passionately about staying in and highlighting how those from some of the most economically deprived areas would be hit hardest.

I agree this shit show is still firmly on Cameron's shoulders, but my view that a passive Corbyn has been an enabler hasn't changed.
 
There is significant hole in that argument though as it ignores the Labour leavers who may have been convinced to change their opinion by an engaged Labour leader arguing passionately about staying in and highlighting how those from some of the most economically deprived areas would be hit hardest.

I agree this $#@! show is still firmly on Cameron's shoulders, but my view that a passive Corbyn has been an enabler hasn't changed.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politi...s-show-only-tory-voters-could-have-kept-us-eu
 
I think that article just reinforces my point. The white, middle aged+ working class voted Brexit because it played to their prejudices and or/fears. The Labour leadership did nothing to speak to these people despite supposedly being pro remain. Therefore the faces they saw to support remain were Cameron and Osborne, no wonder they couldn't be persuaded to change their vote.
 
I think that article just reinforces my point. The white, middle aged+ working class voted Brexit because it played to their prejudices and or/fears. The Labour leadership did nothing to speak to these people despite supposedly being pro remain. Therefore the faces they saw to support remain were Cameron and Osborne, no wonder they couldn't be persuaded to change their vote.

You’re blaming Corbyn’s leadership for issues that have fermented in that group throughout the Blair, Brown and Cameron leaderships. The Labour Party stopped talking to “these people” circa 1997 and then completely ignored them for the next 13 years thinking their vote could be taken for granted.

They couldn’t be persuaded to change their vote because their views were fixed and that is supported by polling data that was collated long before Corbyn took over.
 
I live in a City that was and looking at two recently elected UKIP councillors still is strongly pro Brexit, I know a number of people locally who did vote out and you are correct their views are so ingrained, irrespective of the factual accuracy of them, that I don't think there's anything anybody could say or do that would change their minds. However, I also know what I'd describe as soft Labour supporting people, mainly who didn't vote at all who now say they wish they had voted remain as they can see what a mess it's looking.

Who knows what a strong message from the Labour Party leadership championing the merits of remaining in the EU or the perils of leaving would have done? Maybe it would have made very little difference, but we'll never know. The one factor we do know is that didn't really happen.
 
Indeed. Its lazy to suggest that if Labour came out in support of scrapping brexit they'd automatically lose votes.

Perhaps Corbyn could point out that Brexit will damage the NHS?
Perhaps Corbyn could point out that Brexit will disproportionately harm the poor?
Perhaps Corbyn could point out that the economic damage of Brexit will hinder Labours ability tpo invest in public services?
Perhaps Corbyn could point out the thousands of jobs that will be lost because of Brexit?
Perhaps Corbyn could point out that in any post Brexit trade negotiations we're going to get utterly rinsed because we're weaker out than in?

Do these things and opposing Brexit looks like exactly the sort of thing Labour should be doing.

Be he wont do any of these, because he's fucking useless, and pretty fucking dim as well.
 
Vis sums up this forums pro-Corbyn bias to be fair.
 
From Robert Peston:

This is one of the more important notes I've written recently, because it contains what well-placed sources tell me are the main elements of the Prime Minister's Brexit plan - which will be put to her cabinet for approval on Friday.

I would characterise the kernel of what she wants as the softest possible Brexit, subject to driving only the odd coach over her self-imposed red lines, as opposed to the full coach and horses.

And I will start with my habitual apology: some of what follows is arcane, technical and - yes - a bit boring. But it matters.

Let's start with the PM's putative third way on a customs arrangement with the EU, which has been billed by her Downing Street officials as an almalgam of the best bits of the two precursor plans, the New Customs Partnership (NCP) and Maximum Facilitation (Max Fac).

Last night I described this supposed third way as largely the NCP rebranded - which prompted howls of outrage from one Downing Street official.

But I stand by what I said. Because the new proposal of the PM and her officials, led on this by Olly Robbins, retains the NCP's most controversial element, namely that the UK would at its borders collect duties on imports at the rate of the European Union's common customs tariff.

The UK would in that sense be the EU's tax collector. And although the UK would have the right to negotiate trade agreements with third countries where tariffs could be different from the EU's or zero, companies in the UK importing from those countries would have to claim back the difference from Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs (HMRC), much in the way they currently claim or pay different VAT rates when trading with the EU.

The reason why, from a bureaucratic if not economic viewpoint, the UK would in effect remain in the EU's customs union is that there is no other way of avoiding border checks between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. Or at least that is what the PM and her officials now believe.

To be clear, this would be an asymmetric agreement with the EU: Theresa May may ask EU governments to collect customs duties on behalf of the UK from companies based in their respective countries, but she knows they will respond with a decisive no, nay, never.

Which may seem unfair. But actually this would only be a problem if there were an imminent prospect of a future British government wanting to impose higher tariffs than EU ones. And certainly the political climate now - outside of Trumpian America - is for lower tariffs.

Just to be clear, there will be some of Max Fac in this new synthesised customs plan: IT and camera technology employed to reduce the bureaucracy and frictions of cross-border trade.

But the True Brexiters won't be wholly relaxed (ahem) by what they are likely to see as NCP by another name.

And there's more, of course.

Because frictionless trade and an open border between Northern Ireland and the Republic cannot just be achieved by aligning customs collection rates.

It also requires alignment of product standards, for goods and agricultural products.

Or at least that is what the PM will insist on with her Cabinet colleagues.

And that alignment would in effect replicate membership of the single market for goods and agri-foods.

Which would see European standards and law continuing, ad infinitum, to hold sway over British manufacturing and food production - though the ultimate court of appeal in commercial disputes. would, in May's and Robbins's formulation, be an extra-territorial international court, like the European Free Trade Area's EFTA court.

Given that the ECJ would still have a locus below this final adjudicating tribunal, I assume the True Brexiters such as Jacob Rees-Mogg will be unamused.

But maybe they would take comfort that a British parliament could always withdraw from the trading arrangement, if there were concerns that the rest of the EU was discriminating against the UK.

At this juncture you are saying, I am sure, "oi! what about services?" - given that the UK is largely a service economy (80% of our economic output, our GDP, is generated by service businesses).

Well there is an aspiration to maximise access to the EU's giant market for services by aligning professional and quality standards, for example.

But equally there is a pragmatic recognition that maximising such access would require minimising restrictions on EU citizens moving to the UK to live and work; there is a calculation by Robbins and his officials that, among the EU's so-called four freedoms, free movement of services and free movement of people are pragmatically connected.

And since the PM has pledged to impose new controls on the free movement of people from the rest of the EU, she accepts that the EU will insist on some new restrictions on the sale of British services in its marketplace.

But May and her ministers are hopeful there is a deal to be done here, a trade-off: preferential rights offered to EU citizens to live and work in the UK, compared to the rights available to citizens from the rest of the world, for improved market access in Europe for British service companies.

We'll see.

In the round, you may conclude - as I have - that Theresa May wants a future commercial arrangement with the EU that is not as deep and intimate as Norway's, but is not a million miles from Switzerland's.

From which there follow two crucial if obvious questions.

Will the EU - its chief negotiator Michel Barnier and the 27 government heads - bite or balk?

If Barnier's word was gospel on this, the plan would be dead at birth, because it does put a wedge between the four freedoms: May wants complete freedom of movement for goods (and capital), but restrictions on people.

May's bet is that his employers, the 27 prime ministers and presidents, will be less dogmatic.

But what about her own cabinet and parliamentary party?

If they are in the True Brexit camp, like Davis, Johnson, Fox, and Gove, won't they cry "infamy, infamy, etc", threaten resignation and launch a coup to oust the PM?

Well, what the PM will say to them is that her deal, she believes, is the only one around that stands even the faintest chance of being agreed in Brussels (though, to repeat, you would be right to be sceptical of that).

Which carries a momentous implication - namely that if they reject her vision of Brexit, the default option of exiting the EU without a deal would become the sole option.

And although many True Brexiters would say "hip hip for that", if a no-deal Brexit were to become the only game in town, there would be a revolt of MPs and Lords against the executive, against the PM and her government.

Parliament would - almost certainly - reject exiting the EU without a deal and could, probably would, vote for the UK to join the European Economic Area and remain in the EU's single market.

That would, for most True Brexiters, turn the UK into what they call a "vassal state".

So come Friday, Johnson, Davis, Fox and Gove face an agonising choice: agree to a Brexit plan from May which will stick in their craws like a rotting mackerel head; or reject it and take the risk that what follows is almost their worst nightmare, not a clean no-deal Brexit, but the detested "Brino", or Brexit in name only.

Of course there is always a chance that if they shout and scream loudly enough, May will buckle - and will allow the cabinet to agree on obfuscation for the White Paper on her Brexit negotiating position, to be published 12 July, rather than a clear and unambiguous plan to be put to the EU, of the sort I've described.

If that were to happen, her authority would be undermined, perhaps fatally. And the possibility of there being no deal with the EU, on divorce and future relationship, would become a serious, potentially catastrophic probability.
 
So basically May is gambling on the same cunts who got us into this mess not blocking her attempts to minimise the damage. Good luck with that one.
 
Jaguar Land Rover has warned a “bad” Brexit would threaten its £80bn UK investment plan.The CEO of Britain’s biggest carmaker said a hard Brexit would cost Jaguar Land Rover more than£1.2bn profiteach year, calling for frictionless trade. Despite voicing concerns over a Brexit deal, Ralf Speth describedclosing UK plantsas an option he hopes “we never have to go for.” Jaguar Land Rover employs around 40,000 employees in the UK, exporting £18bn of goods per year
 
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