REFERENDUM RESULTS AND DISCUSSION THREAD

[visage]

Survation poll in the MoS today has a majority wanting a second referendum:

 

[thehistorymakers]

Survation poll in the MoS today has a majority wanting a second referendum:

84% of the people in the general election voted for parties not to have a second referendum, 7% for a party that wanted a second referendum.
Opinion polls have been shown to not know anything. 84% are real votes.

 

[visage]

Did you read the posts that pointed out why that line of argument is bollocks?

 

[Tony Towner]

Mods feel free to move the
discussion on the May thread onto this one as I've posted the same graphic

 

[The Saturday Boy]

84% of the people in the general election voted for parties not to have a second referendum, 7% for a party that wanted a second referendum.
Opinion polls have been shown to not know anything. 84% are real votes.

Most of the raw data in the opinion polls was largely reflective of the outcome of the general election, it was the subsequent weighting that skewed their results. I guess if you look at Survation's raw data a the 2nd referendum question it will show an increasing trend towards favouring a 2nd referendum. If negotiations are perceived to be going badly you can guarantee there will be increasing calls to vote on the deal and I think that pressure will be too much for any government to bear - the consequences of agreeing a deal that the general public are hostile to would be political suicide akin to the Lib Dems 2015.

A 2nd referendum would be a nightmare scenario for leave campaigners. They long argued for a referendum because it was what people wanted, so it would be hypocritical to deny a referendum on the deal if that is what people wanted...but the real issue for leave would be that they would be forced to campaign in favour of a bad deal because the only reason a government would have the second referendum us because everyone would know it was a bad deal.

Nobody should be surprised by the leave campaign wanting to ignore "the will of the people" when it comes to the deal...they are on a hiding to nothing.

 

[thehistorymakers]

Most of the raw data in the opinion polls was largely reflective of the outcome of the general election, it was the subsequent weighting that skewed their results. I guess if you look at Survation's raw data a the 2nd referendum question it will show an increasing trend towards favouring a 2nd referendum. If negotiations are perceived to be going badly you can guarantee there will be increasing calls to vote on the deal and I think that pressure will be too much for any government to bear - the consequences of agreeing a deal that the general public are hostile to would be political suicide akin to the Lib Dems 2015.

A 2nd referendum would be a nightmare scenario for leave campaigners. They long argued for a referendum because it was what people wanted, so it would be hypocritical to deny a referendum on the deal if that is what people wanted...but the real issue for leave would be that they would be forced to campaign in favour of a bad deal because the only reason a government would have the second referendum us because everyone would know it was a bad deal.

Nobody should be surprised by the leave campaign wanting to ignore "the will of the people" when it comes to the deal...they are on a hiding to nothing.

The will of the people are in democratic votes. Remain lost the referendum and got 7% in a general election. You had a second chance. The general election is where you could have changed it. Bad arguement saying the election wasn't about Brexit. If it wasn't about Brexit, it means people accept that we are leaving and don't want another referendum. 7% says that people have accepted we are leaving and accept the terms of the 2 main parties that got 84%. Remain had their chance, the remainer, May saw to that, but people don't think it is an important enough issue, or have accepted we are leaving. It is at the electorate booth that people make political decisions, not Newspaper articles.

 

[The Saturday Boy]

The will of the people are in democratic votes. Remain lost the referendum and got 7% in a general election. You had a second chance. The general election is where you could have changed it. Bad arguement saying the election wasn't about Brexit. If it wasn't about Brexit, it means people accept that we are leaving and don't want another referendum. 7% says that people have accepted we are leaving and accept the terms of the 2 main parties that got 84%. Remain had their chance, the remainer, May saw to that, but people don't think it is an important enough issue, or have accepted we are leaving. It is at the electorate booth that people make political decisions, not Newspaper articles.

Congratulations on proving my point. If you had no worries about a second referendum on any deal this wouldn't be an issue. Surely if it is clear that people want a 2nd referendum you should be actively campaigning for it so that the deal can be tested by the will if the people.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Will please stop saying Remain got 7% in the election. It is a complete fucking lie.

 

[nimrod]

i don't see any way a second referendum will happen. it's not so much an issue of principle, after all, it would be democratic, more an issue of practicality.

we've pressed the button to leave, deal or no deal. so to reverse that we'd need the EU to agree we can. we won't do that in advance, because the argument will be that we incentivise the EU to be tougher in negotiation, and even if you don't believe that's true, any unfavourable exit/trade deal will be argued that way by intransigent nutjobs. if we wait until after the negotiation is complete to decide on having the secondary referendum, as TSB has pointed out, it's only going to be proposed if the outcome is considered bad enough to justify one and so politicians would have to own up to that whilst at the same time asking the people to trust them to go back to the EU and renegotiate terms to get us back in. i just don't think this is in any way feasible.

 

[thehistorymakers]

Congratulations on proving my point. If you had no worries about a second referendum on any deal this wouldn't be an issue. Surely if it is clear that people want a 2nd referendum you should be actively campaigning for it so that the deal can be tested by the will if the people.

They don't want a second referendum. If it was that important to them, they could have voted for a party who had a second referendum in their manifesto, the LD'S. They didn't, or only 7% thought it was important enough.

 

[thehistorymakers]

i don't see any way a second referendum will happen. it's not so much an issue of principle, after all, it would be democratic, more an issue of practicality.

we've pressed the button to leave, deal or no deal. so to reverse that we'd need the EU to agree we can. we won't do that in advance, because the argument will be that we incentivise the EU to be tougher in negotiation, and even if you don't believe that's true, any unfavourable exit/trade deal will be argued that way by intransigent nutjobs. if we wait until after the negotiation is complete to decide on having the secondary referendum, as TSB has pointed out, it's only going to be proposed if the outcome is considered bad enough to justify one and so politicians would have to own up to that whilst at the same time asking the people to trust them to go back to the EU and renegotiate terms to get us back in. i just don't think this is in any way feasible.

I think that is quite a good post, however, the EU have already said that we wouldn't be going back to where we are now. We would lose the option outs that we have now. In reality making staying in the EU much worse than before article 50 was released.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

The EU would happily let us cancel the whole thing and pretend it never happened, it would demonstrate that leaving the EU is such a mammoth task that it is beyond pretty much any current Government in Europe (bar maybe Germany, who don't even want to leave) and should therefore be discounted as a serious option.

A year ago people (including me) were warning that even if this were vaguely workable, we don't have the talent within Government nor do we have the depth in our civil service (thanks Gideon) to come up with a proper deal or administrate it properly. And so it comes to pass.

 

[Johnny75]

What would you know what election campaigns were fought on THM YOU live in Spain. It's ignorant and arrogant for somebody who doesn't live in the country they are voting in to summise they knew what people who live there were voting on.

You're no voice for the working man or any other Briton and I find it a failing of the electoral system that ex-pats like you can vote on such matters.

 

[thehistorymakers]

Will please stop saying Remain got 7% in the election. It is a complete $#@!ing lie.

The party who didn't accept the referendum result and had it in their manifesto to have a second referendum, got 7%. That is a fact. The parties that agreed to an end to free movement and we would leave the single market got 84%. That is also a fact.
The very best way that you can paint this as a remainer, is that people thought other things were more important than the 2nd referendum. Hence why I say Corbyn played a blinder.
The truth is, if you wanted a second referendum and thought we shouldn't leave the EU, you were gifted a chance by the remainer, May. Corbyn out maneuvered her and put the important things about Brexit in his manifesto, meaning only 7% of people have voted for a party, that wanted a second referendum.

 

[thehistorymakers]

What would you know what election campaigns were fought on THM YOU live in Spain. It's ignorant and arrogant for somebody who doesn't live in the country they are voting in to summise they knew what people who live there were voting on.

You're no voice for the working man or any other Briton and I find it a failing of the electoral system that ex-pats like you can vote on such matters.

I voted in the referendum. Labour and the Tory party had in their manifestos about leaving the single market and an end to free movement. the LD's had none of that and a promise of a second referendum in their manifesto. If I thought that staying in the EU was so important, I would have voted LD's. As only 7% did is obvious that the 84% didn't think it was that important.
It isn't about opinions and newspaper headlines or polls, it is about votes.

 

[Kenny]

My vote had zero to do with Brexit and how and what will happen with it. So can you remove me from the 84% please.

I voted on my local area and what the sitting MP did for it.

 

[Johnny75]

I voted in the referendum. Labour and the Tory party had in their manifestos about leaving the single market and an end to free movement. the LD's had none of that and a promise of a second referendum in their manifesto. If I thought that staying in the EU was so important, I would have voted LD's. As only 7% did is obvious that the 84% didn't think it was that important.
It isn't about opinions and newspaper headlines or polls, it is about votes.

Are you really that dense? The election was not fought on a second referendum can you not understand that? As Kenny has said and i imitating the vast majority of people did not vote because of Brexit either. It's a UK thing.

If you're having trouble with your one-eyed view from Spain maybe you shouldn't be voting.

 

[thehistorymakers]

Are you really that dense? The election was not fought on a second referendum can you not understand that? As Kenny has said and i imitating the vast majority of people did not vote because of Brexit either. It's a UK thing.

If you're having trouble with your one-eyed view from Spain maybe you shouldn't be voting.

BUT if it was that important thing to you, you had an opportunity to vote LD'S, for a second referendum.you voted for a party that had no single market and no freedom of movement in it's manifesto. You didn't vote for a party that had the 2nd referendum in it's manifesto. Sorry mate, but it isn't me who is dense.

 

[Kenny]

It really fucking is

 

[Langers]

My vote had zero to do with Brexit and how and what will happen with it. So can you remove me from the 84% please.

I voted on my local area and what the sitting MP did for it.

+1

I don't want us to leave the EU, its a stupid idea and its clear that the government haven't got a fucking clue how to go about negotiating.

But its happening, and I accept that. My vote in the general election had nothing to do with my opinions on Brexit and everything to do with other issues that are more important to my own personal circumstances such as the NHS, education etc.