O'Neil In, Out and Shaking it all about

[Alan]

We give opponents relatively poor quality opportunities, but they score from anyway.

Thing is if you'd told me that yesterday, I'd have thought it was nuts.

Not sure what to make of it. Certainly doesn't change my current Gary Out stance.

 

[Johnny75]

In a twist that's making me question my perception of reality, we're actually the 2nd best team in the league so far in an... admittedly very specific defensive category?

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Of course, we're 3rd worst on the attacking end.

Might want to search out that article in the Athletic/ New York Times on soccer stats.

It'll firmly tell you that this, whilst a lovely graph is ultimately bollocks.

 

[HanDoJin]

I'd clean forgotten Rob Edwards even existed. Rob Edwards anyone?

 

[Lycan]

Rob Edwards wouldn't solve anything. There's no point sacking O'Neil unless we can replace him with someone worthwhile.

 

[Langers]

Rob Edwards wouldn't solve anything. There's no point sacking O'Neil unless we can replace him with someone worthwhile.

Whilst I wholeheartedly agree with you, Edwards is exactly who I would expect Jeff to replace O'Neil should he be sacked.

And it wouldn't work out.

 

[Tredman]

Whilst I wholeheartedly agree with you, Edwards is exactly who I would expect Jeff to replace O'Neil should he be sacked.

And it wouldn't work out.

It’s more inevitable than Hwang’s first touch going out of play.

 

[Johnny75]

I'd clean forgotten Rob Edwards even existed. Rob Edwards anyone?

No

 

[Kenny]

Would need him sacked by Luton first. Not paying compensation to get him.

 

[YoungWolf]

Might want to search out that article in the Athletic/ New York Times on soccer stats.

It'll firmly tell you that this, whilst a lovely graph is ultimately bollocks.

I’m not sure that’s fair. I also don’t think the athletic article is suggesting analytics don’t have a place in football.

I think what it does show is that our keepers have under performed so far against what they’ve faced. And we are now reverting to the mean a bit in front of goal

 

[Johnny75]

It would be on Hobbs to appoint Edwards not Shi.

Hobbs has failed with GoN and interviewed Beale, Lampard and Smith. I think scouting is his thing not appointing coaches.

Why we wanted British is the kind of bizarre rubbish that gets people the sack.

 

[Kenny]

It would be on Hobbs to appoint Edwards not Shi.

Hobbs has failed with GoN and interviewed Beale, Lampard and Smith. I think scouting is his thing not appointing coaches.

Why we wanted British is the kind of bizarre rubbish that gets people the sack.

Shi wants a manager he will make money available.

Outside of that, it is the cheaper option. The shift from Beale back to Lopetegui shows that.

All we know is, it will be a confused process from deciding to bin GO and replace him because of Shi. We could get a name, we could end up with the U21 boss getting the job and everything else in-between is an option, depending on his mood each day.

 

[Johnny75]

I’m not sure that’s fair. I also don’t think the athletic article is suggesting analytics don’t have a place in football.

I think what it does show is that our keepers have under performed so far against what they’ve faced. And we are now reverting to the mean a bit in front of goal

I think they suggest statistical analytics like this have a place, not particularly ground breaking and ultimately managers think nothing other than 'that's nice'.

The article also suggests they're not very effective at anything other than showing you what you already know, which I guess is what that graph is doing.

Video analysis yes, that's very important but statistical is pretty irrelevant if you want to change style, tactics or gameplay.

 

[big mean bunny]

I’m not sure that’s fair. I also don’t think the athletic article is suggesting analytics don’t have a place in football.

I think what it does show is that our keepers have under performed so far against what they’ve faced. And we are now reverting to the mean a bit in front of goal

See I don't think Johnstone has underperformed. This was my worry of what he is and he has performed actually to his previous ability. Would be an excellent short to mid term emergency keeper for a better team but is a worry as a main keeper as makes no "point winning saves."

People were posting about Palace fans saying they felt there wasn't much between him and Henderson, and yet despite there own struggles Palace have had two excellent performances from Henderson that has gained a point versus both Chelsea and Utd. Johnstone didn't actually make a save versus Villa, and whilst he didn't go much wrong. There are little niggles already that he just is never going to make the sort of saves we need when you need a keeper to drag you through.

 

[YoungWolf]

I think they suggest statistical analytics like this have a place but ultimately managers think nothing other than 'that's nice' and they're not very effective at anything other than showing you what you already know.

Video analysis yes, that's very important but statistical is pretty irrelevant.

Disagree. Plenty of stats/metrics that show what people think they’ve seen is often pretty wrong.

A useful tool that plenty still hasn’t quite made full use of (which I think is good because if everyone did it would be pretty boring, it’s where Brighton and Brentford have been able to make huge progress by being smarter than most).

 

[Johnny75]

Disagree. Plenty of stats/metrics that show what people think they’ve seen is often pretty wrong.

A useful tool that plenty still hasn’t quite made full use of (which I think is good because if everyone did it would be pretty boring, it’s where Brighton and Brentford have been able to make huge progress by being smarter than most).

Fair enough, I think Brentford and Brighton use it for player recruitment don't they?

You'll know better than me but do any coaches actually change their tactics or game play because of the stats?

 

[YoungWolf]

See I don't think Johnstone has underperformed. This was my worry of what he is and he has performed actually to his previous ability. Would be an excellent short to mid term emergency keeper for a better team but is a worry as a main keeper as makes no "point winning saves."

People were posting about Palace fans saying they felt there wasn't much between him and Henderson, and yet despite there own struggles Palace have had two excellent performances from Henderson that has gained a point versus both Chelsea and Utd. Johnstone didn't actually make a save versus Villa, and whilst he didn't go much wrong. There are little niggles already that he just is never going to make the sort of saves we need when you need a keeper to drag you through.

He’s under performed in the sense that he’s conceded two very low value shots against Newcastle. That doesn’t mean it’s his fault. Obviously Dawson deflects one and the other goes in the top corner. He should save the one at Forest mind you.

On the flip side, Sa basically saving for 3 months basically made Lage look like he was doing a good job.

 

[YoungWolf]

Fair enough, I think Brentford and Brighton use it for player recruitment don't they?

You'll know better than me but do any coaches actually change their tactics or game play because of the stats?

Set pieces too I would suggest. But yeah that’s fair.

I would agree with the premise that in terms of in game tactics it’s harder to impact, especially in the moment. But look at a stat like xG, I’d be willing to wager that the distance of the average shot has got shorter since it became more popularised and better understood. As a result, you see a lot less crosses so teams have to attack and defend in a different way.

 

[big mean bunny]

He’s under performed in the sense that he’s conceded two very low value shots against Newcastle. That doesn’t mean it’s his fault. Obviously Dawson deflects one and the other goes in the top corner. He should save the one at Forest mind you.

On the flip side, Sa basically saving for 3 months basically made Lage look like he was doing a good job.

Yeah he should. And some keepers save the 2nd yesterday but I don't think SJ ever does, and that's my drawback with him.

He seemed to play a bit further from his line yesterday (backed by stats versus his other games) but I don't think he likes that, again not something I put blame on him for, but he looks so unsure what to do with the 3rd. Probably too deep, reads it but the ball is excellent and so freezes as he knows he won't get there, then takes a really poor angle.

I didn't want him, he has probably been better than Sa, and yet it's hard to not already want a replacement. Feel like it's sums us up currently.

 

[Johnny75]

Set pieces too I would suggest. But yeah that’s fair.

I would agree with the premise that in terms of in game tactics it’s harder to impact, especially in the moment. But look at a stat like xG, I’d be willing to wager that the distance of the average shot has got shorter since it became more popularised and better understood. As a result, you see a lot less crosses so teams have to attack and defend in a different way.

That's one of the conclusions the article came to as well which is fair.

Although they weren't sure if it was chicken or egg.

I don't know either way. I do worry that Hobbs and GoN are obsessed by stats and I think that would be a bad thing as the game is in front of them and their change will change stats rather than stats dictating their changes.

That's more me and my tinfoil hat though.

 

[Alan]

Fair enough, I think Brentford and Brighton use it for player recruitment don't they?

You'll know better than me but do any coaches actually change their tactics or game play because of the stats?

This is not a pro or con for stats but I’d be stunned if any club at this level isn’t at least tweaking things based on analytics.

The xG allowed per shot number for us is shocking to me and doesn’t match my eye test, but it’s no less the case that we have so far been good at limiting quality chances. Makes our results all the more damning, in some ways.

You can’t look at the analytics, conclude they don’t match your perception, and then dismiss them. Better to find the reality of joining the two.