O'Neil In, Out and Shaking it all about

[YoungWolf]

That's one of the conclusions the article came to as well which is fair.

Although they weren't sure it was chicken or egg.

I don't know either way. I do worry that Hobbs and GoN are obsessed by stats and I think that would be a bad thing as the game is in front of them and their change will change stats rather than stats dictating their changes.

That's more me and my tinfoil hat though.

yeah depends what’s on that bloody iPad!!! My guess it is a delayed live feed though. May have some data on it too though I guess.

This is not a pro or con for stats but I’d be stunned if any club at this level isn’t at least tweaking things based on analytics.

The xG allowed per shot number for us is shocking to me and doesn’t match my eye test, but it’s no less the case that we have so far been good at limiting quality chances. Makes our results all the more damning, in some ways.

I suppose if you look at the goals we’ve conceded in isolation it makes more sense though. Quite a few from outside the area or angled finishes. I think we’ve conceded 7 xG in these 5 games, which isn’t horrific, so hopefully we have a bit more luck soon. Can’t have our cake and eat it though, plenty of games we rode on the swing of things going our way in that sense, now going the other way.

 

[Alan]

Fwiw I think a useful missing piece of context for that specific chart would be the average xG allowed on the goals we have conceded. Feels like that number must be high, even if the occurrences are relative outliers compared to all shots allowed.

 

[Alan]

yeah depends what’s on that bloody iPad!!! My guess it is a delayed live feed though. May have some data on it too though I guess.


I suppose if you look at the goals we’ve conceded in isolation it makes more sense though. Quite a few from outside the area or angled finishes. I think we’ve conceded 7 xG in these 5 games, which isn’t horrific, so hopefully we have a bit more luck soon. Can’t have our cake and eat it though, plenty of games we road on the swing of things going our way in that sense, now going the other way.

This is the bit that I can’t work out. We don’t look unlucky, we look disorganized as fuck. Hard to square that against the circle of “actually our opposition has to settle for crap mostly”.

 

[Johnny75]

This is not a pro or con for stats but I’d be stunned if any club at this level isn’t at least tweaking things based on analytics.

That's the thing the article came to the opposite conclusion on. They didn't have an affect but then I'm not sure how many coaches they interviewed. As @YoungWolf said shots closer to goal have changed but they doubt much else has. There isn't the data points to do so. The article is really good, some good contributors from some data gurus.

The xG allowed per shot number for us is shocking to me and doesn’t match my eye test, but it’s no less the case that we have so far been good at limiting quality chances. Makes our results all the more damning, in some ways.

The xG guy (who's name escapes me) suggests that it is a marker only, not a guide, if that makes sense.

You can’t look at the analytics, conclude they don’t match your perception, and then dismiss them. Better to find the reality of joining the two.

As said, there is clearly a place for analytics in recruitment and during video analysis but the data gurus doubt it's usefulness in changing tactics.

I think there has to be usefulness to any data but measuring stuff and producing data isn't always useful, sometimes football is more art than science, instinct than plan, that sort of chaos is going to be impossible to map accurately. In fact there are mathematical models to tell us so!

 

[Alan]

Always appreciate your take on it tbf even if we disagree. Helps me keep confounding variables in mind.

Who are the gurus you’re talking about? Would be interested in their work. Outside of the Athletic article obv (I actually got that chart from a different article on ESPN).

 

[Johnny75]

yeah depends what’s on that bloody iPad!!! My guess it is a delayed live feed though. May have some data on it too though I guess.

I'm guessing it would be clipped up and sent to the iPad pretty quickly.

I know coaches love that, but you can get mired in trolleys rather than what you're watching.

 

[YoungWolf]

This is the bit that I can’t work out. We don’t look unlucky, we look disorganized as fuck. Hard to square that against the circle of “actually our opposition has to settle for crap mostly”.

It’s only 5 games. So only a small sample size. You could be right and it just be about variance. The worst could still be to come !!

 

[Alan]

I'm guessing it would be clipped up and sent to the iPad pretty quickly.

I know coaches love that, but you can get mired in trolleys rather than what you're watching.

I’m with you on this one. Drives me a bit nuts watching coaches hunch over an iPad for seven minutes after conceding.

It’s only 5 games. So only a small sample size. You could be right and it just be about variance. The worst could still be to come !!

Well we certainly can’t be towing Gary’s “aw shucks little old us have it so hard in this league” line! And that stat almost seems like he could be right, so… fuck it, ay?

 

[Johnny75]

Always appreciate your take on it tbf even if we disagree. Helps me keep confounding variables in mind.

Who are the gurus you’re talking about? Would be interested in their work. Outside of the Athletic article obv.

I did some digging after reading the article and tbh most of it blows my mind.

Interesting stuff and you can get lost in xG, xGA, xA, passing stats, final third entries and all sorts of charts.

But to a researcher I think the frustration is the communication and understanding outside of the recruitment team.

I wouldn't know how you solve that

 

[Alan]

I did some digging after reading the article and tbh most of it blows my mind.

Interesting stuff and you can get lost in xG, xGA, xA, passing stats, final third entries and all sorts of charts.

But to a researcher I think the frustration is the communication and understanding outside of the recruitment team.

I wouldn't know how you solve that

“You’ve heard of Player Managers, now get ready for Player Statisticians…”

It’s a great point tbf.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

When Dyche's Burnley had their one good season they defended in a very specific way that meant very few shots taken from central areas inside 18 yards actually reached the keeper and required a save. That would be at least partly analytics driven.

In the end though teams worked out a way round it and they reverted to shithousing to 40 points a season.

 

[Del Woppio]

“You’ve heard of Player Managers, now get ready for Player Statisticians…”

You'd need somebody intelligent, which football's littered with! Cole Palmer anyone

 

[Alan]

You'd need somebody intelligent, which football's littered with! Cole Palmer anyone

Him and Grealish are ready-made for it!

 

[NicholasG1973]

I'd clean forgotten Rob Edwards even existed. Rob Edwards anyone?

I just hope this wasn’t a serious question.

 

[Tyrannosaurus Dan]

Our combined first half scores this season: 5-4
Second half: 0-10

 

[YoungWolf]

Our combined first half scores this season: 5-4
Second half: 0-10

 

[HanDoJin]

I just hope this wasn’t a serious question.

It was not.

More what I expect to happen

 

[MARKakaJIM]

See I don't think Johnstone has underperformed. This was my worry of what he is and he has performed actually to his previous ability. Would be an excellent short to mid term emergency keeper for a better team but is a worry as a main keeper as makes no "point winning saves."

People were posting about Palace fans saying they felt there wasn't much between him and Henderson, and yet despite there own struggles Palace have had two excellent performances from Henderson that has gained a point versus both Chelsea and Utd. Johnstone didn't actually make a save versus Villa, and whilst he didn't go much wrong. There are little niggles already that he just is never going to make the sort of saves we need when you need a keeper to drag you through.

Don't think he did well on the 2nd and 3rd goals yesterday.

If you're staying on your line for the 2nd then you've got to make a decent attempt at a save but it just goes through him like he didn't even anticipate the attempt. Then for the 3rd his starting position looked decent but there was a bit of indecision then a retreat so it was easy for Villa to square it and leave him stranded in no mans land.

Might not have made any difference to the outcomes on either but would say there's a fair chance Sa approaches those two goals completely differently - attempting to claim the cross on the 2nd and trying to sweep up for the 3rd.

 

[big mean bunny]

Yeah don't get me wrong I don't feel he did well and I would already be swapping Sa back in myself but then I get I never wanted this change for him and so know people would point to that for my reason. I haven't pivoted from my thinking the people who were saying it was an upgrade, would regret that once they actually saw him at this level.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Sa's mentality is clearly nowhere near suitable now, look at that Brighton display. Not an option.