Live Match Discussion 2022/23

[Del Woppio]

FFS @ one of my commentary pet peeves.

Hitting the bar isn't "unlucky", it's inaccurate. Less inaccurate than putting the ball in Row Z but still.

I'm not having that when the margin to perfect placement is as small as a couple of centimetres, *just* missing it is unlucky. They're balls, not targeted missiles!

 

[Alan]

I'm not having that when the margin to perfect placement is as small as a couple of centimetres, *just* missing it is unlucky. They're balls, not targeted missiles!

It’s not even a shot on target, you loon!

 

[Johnny75]

Well that's the title race decided

I think this may be the dumbest thing I've read this week.

And believe me there's a lot of competition out there which includes the Tory candidates

 

[Johnny75]

It’s not even a shot on target, you loon!

It isn't a shot on target you're quite right but a couple of inches and it's a goal so it's a bit unlucky.

 

[AndyWolves]

I think this may be the dumbest thing I've read this week.

And believe me there's a lot of competition out there which includes the Tory candidates

Woosh

 

[Alan]

It isn't a shot on target you're quite right but a couple of inches and it's a goal so it's a bit unlucky.

Using the Imperial system to prove a point, for shame.

I think the thing I find most interesting about it is that it only ever seems to be used in an attacking sense. A shot is just slightly off target? Unlucky. A defender misses a clearance by the same margin? Don't think I've ever heard luck get mentioned in that case.

At any rate, I think I just get rustled at the idea of pointing at something as ephemeral as luck as a major factor in deciding games. I get the same way (to a slightly lesser extent) when people talk about "momentum" in American football. It's impossible to measure in a standardized way.

I'm a stats boy at heart, I suppose.

 

[The Bear]

It’s not even a shot on target, you loon!

Only because a shot on target is defined as one where a defender/gk has to intervene to stop it being a goal.

You can hit the bar/post and the ball still goes in or you can hit it and come back out. It's fine margins.

 

[Alan]

Only because a shot on target is defined as one where a defender/gk has to intervene to stop it being a goal.

You can hit the bar/post and the ball still goes in or you can hit it and come back out. It's fine margins.

Would you have considered it "lucky" if Diaz had scored there?

 

[Johnny75]

Using the Imperial system to prove a point, for shame.

I think the thing I find most interesting about it is that it only ever seems to be used in an attacking sense. A shot is just slightly off target? Unlucky. A defender misses a clearance by the same margin? Don't think I've ever heard luck get mentioned in that case.

At any rate, I think I just get rustled at the idea of pointing at something as ephemeral as luck as a major factor in deciding games. I get the same way (to a slightly lesser extent) when people talk about "momentum" in American football. It's impossible to measure in a standardized way.

I'm a stats boy at heart, I suppose.

Plenty of luck in football. Defenders getting the slightest touch on a striker at goal which wrong foots the keeper isn't planned for by the attacker or defender.

That's complete luck.

This is where the stats argument falls over.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

I think the thing I find most interesting about it is that it only ever seems to be used in an attacking sense. A shot is just slightly off target? Unlucky. A defender misses a clearance by the same margin? Don't think I've ever heard luck get mentioned in that case.

If a defender takes a swing at a clearance and completely misses the ball or gives it straight to an opponent then that is clearly just really shit.

Defenders can get unlucky with random bounces/deflections or if an attacker flukes their way past them.

Are you saying Kebano *wasn't* unlucky there?

 

[Alan]

Personally I'd say that's a quite different scenario to the Diaz chance that kicked this off but your point isn't unheard.

I'd argue that good stats can, and, importantly, should, control for those bounces. Confounding variables, we'd call 'em. If you can control for those variables in your mind, you can set up your statistical analysis to do the same.

Now, whether or not the stats that currently exist do so as well as they can/should is another question entirely.

 

[Lupo]

Playing 5aside last night I had one shot which hit the underside of the bar, bounced down and out off the goal line, another hit the post, rolled along goal line then out to keeper's hands. Did I consider myself unlucky? Too fucking right!

 

[Alan]

If a defender takes a swing at a clearance and completely misses the ball or gives it straight to an opponent then that is clearly just really shit.

Defenders can get unlucky with random bounces/deflections or if an attacker flukes their way past them.

Are you saying Kebano *wasn't* unlucky there?

Yep, because, again, it's a clear shot that's totally under his control. It was close to a great goal but it wasn't, it counts for nothing.

No confounding variable at play there, no deflection or anything like that. Just a shot that wasn't as accurate as it could have been/needed to be.

 

[Alan]

Would also like to be clear that for as much as I'm dying on this hill, I'm not expecting to persuade anyone here to stop thinking about the game in terms of lucky or unlucky. I don't have the time or the expertise to break down y'all's socialization that way.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Bet you the xG for that chance (it wasn't even really a chance) was really low and it was millimetres away from coming off. Ergo, unlucky to at least some extent.

Adama wasn't unlucky when he hit the bar against Burnley last season as he was clean through with no-one near him, loads of time to think (dangerous with him, I know) and could have done anything with it.

 

[YoungWolf]

Football is about luck a lot more than people realise I think!

 

[Alan]

Football is about luck a lot more than people realise I think!

 

[Kenny]

TV highlights?

At least Alan provides them for Charlotte games.

The goal that won the game

https://twitter.com/x/status/1555885065829326849

 

[Tony Towner]

Everton are playing a back 3 and Godfrey is currently being stretchered off

 

[AndyWolves]

Ben Yeddar stayed on the bench for Monaco's game