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Home v Huddersfield 25.11.18

Actually thinking about it I had a haircut two days after the Palace game. If only I'd been willing to look like Ian Walker circa 1997 for a while, none of this would have happened.

Yeah, if you don't get your haircut this week and we get a result then you can't get a haircut until we lose again.

Jokes aside, has the run coincided with Nuno changing the team around?
 
Thanks for that.The last three managers of the month have all lost their next game. #fact.

I just flipped a coin three times and got three heads. That's about as significant statistically.
 
I was in the slight habit of seeing what the flowers in my Wolves bench say... i.e 3 flower heads opened up on the left and 1 on the right would be 3-1 home team.

Reason being it gave the correct result for about 5 of the first games this season and I did go a bit Cyber on it for a while.
 
So the patterns arent quite as selective. Agreed its not 100% each time every time but its a bit more than coincidence and it happens more than probability says it should.

Funny how that article doesn't include teams in the top 6. Almost as if, as they are better teams, they still win even after the 'curse'? Looking at it from that POV only states the bleeding obvious which is that teams towards the bottom go through differing runs of form and it's hard to keep that up over consecutive months.

Pep won MOTM 3 three times and won his next game. Perhaps this is just a statement of how good he is, because he's developed a resistance to these hexes.
Sean Dyche wins MOTM for March - beats Leicester 2-1 after.

Acknowledging we have a poor record against a team =/= some belief that supernatural forces or some silliness is making us not win those games. We should be beating them absolutely but we did not. Was it down to a very poor performance that the whole team should be ashamed of, or shall we instead just write it off and blame magic? Funnily enough the times we won at places we rarely win at was because we were very good. Very good teams win football matches most of the time. Using our record as a poorer team shitting up the Championship has very little relevance to today. Plymouth won 1-0 at Molineux and we drew 2-2 away while they were relegated that year also. Must be evidence we are cursed against them too. But wait, Plymouth hadn't beaten us in their past 8 so this one is just bad luck instead of witchcraft on this occasion.

You didn't include November 2013 where we were in League One and won 3 games, how convenient. Again, if you look at this closely, you will notice that we were one of the better sides in that division that year and so won some matches.

The pattern isn't selective, you are. Better teams win more games. Look at the % of games a top 6 side wins after the award compared to the rest of the league and there is a massive gulf - because the former is a better side while the other was (most of the time) just on a good run of form that is quite often stopped when they play a side from the top 6. Even the best sides lose sometimes to worse sides, its mostly a coincidence that this has some history. Problem is with how widespread and available stats are you can find some to back up any stupid preconceived notion that is held. We could lose to any team in this league and you could find something that 'explains' how it happened. There isn't much point in debating it really as you aren't going to try and think otherwise about it, you have form for it. In fact of the past 50 debates people have had with you on this topic you have changed your mind after none of them #bogeyside.
 
Try him on Brexit. It's worse.

The law of probability says this. If you are in a division that includes six superior sides and 14 weaker sides, and one of those weaker sides wins manager of the month through a good run of results, the chances are very high that that side is likely to hit a bump very soon.

Bar the top six, very VERY few sides in the top flight win four on the bounce, let alone five or six to keep a run going after an award.

The bottom line is we haven't suddenly gone to shit. We have had two poor performances, one decent one that didn't gather a point, and one excellent one that sadly only gathered one when three was deserved.
 
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The bottom line is we haven't suddenly gone to shit. We have had two poor performances, one decent one that didn't gather a point, and one excellent one that sadly only gathered one when three was deserved.

Plus Brighton which was a faintly ridiculous game where you can't blame luck (it is our fault and our fault alone that we missed so many chances) but really, you play that game out again 20 times and we'd probably never lose again. They had one shot on target FFS and it went in.

I have tried to explain "regression to the mean" to Cyber before but it's really just needless wear and tear on my keyboard. I may as well argue about religion and its relevance to the 21st century with Tim Farron.
 
So make it a further entry of one further excellent performance where we contrived to turn a three point deserved haul into bugger all. Our issue is converting chances most of the time, rather than getting utterly fucking dicked.

And another thing. That goal line clearance isn't 1.8cm in time on Sunday and I reckon we go on and win the game.
 
I certainly doubt we'd have lost, Huddersfield wouldn't have pushed for the win to any great degree. It was pretty much our only decent effort of the entire game though so I can't say with any real confidence that we'd have won. And not that any of us would have been happy with a draw.

Cyber is convinced that we're indelibly hexed for all eternity yet bet me £20 last week that we'd make the Europa League! Which is the easiest money I've ever made.
 
And you get a £13 curry out of me. Quite a productive few moments for you. Did we decide on curry neutral if we made Europe in a cup (not that we will, but just for completeness)?
 
No, if we qualify by any means then I'll happily shell out.

Although there is about the same chance of me taking Pixie Lott along as my date for the night.
 
I certainly doubt we'd have lost, Huddersfield wouldn't have pushed for the win to any great degree. It was pretty much our only decent effort of the entire game though so I can't say with any real confidence that we'd have won. And not that any of us would have been happy with a draw.

Cyber is convinced that we're indelibly hexed for all eternity yet bet me £20 last week that we'd make the Europa League! Which is the easiest money I've ever made.

giphy.gif
 
Try him on Brexit. It's worse.

The law of probability says this. If you are in a division that includes six superior sides and 14 weaker sides, and one of those weaker sides wins manager of the month through a good run of results, the chances are very high that that side is likely to hit a bump very soon.

Bar the top six, very VERY few sides in the top flight win four on the bounce, let alone five or six to keep a run going after an award.

The bottom line is we haven't suddenly gone to shit. We have had two poor performances, one decent one that didn't gather a point, and one excellent one that sadly only gathered one when three was deserved.

Now we are getting somewhere

Please show me the last newly promoted team to not lose to 3 of the big six in the first 13 games. Clue. It's never happened .

It's got nothing to do with superstition but our bumps? Huddersfield , watford, Brighton?

Our bumps are pretty flat as bumps go!

That's the frustration.

To me the season starts at worst 0;0 12 with defeats to the big six.our season is not going to be defined by what we do against them. They are bonus points. It's definitely going to be defined by results against Cardiff Huddersfield Fulham Newcastle Watford Burnley Southampton especially at home. And we have spunked 50% of those chances already .
 
I'm not falling into discussing the hocus pocus trap, but the reason we got points against Utd, City and Arsenal is they weren't concerned about the way we play. They let us play our own game and when teams do that we are pretty bloody good at it. Watford and Huddersfield put trying to stop us at the top of their agenda and did it well. It's not new, teams put 3 in midfield for many games last year, but the quality level, even with average sides in the PL is higher.
 
Hmmmm


Conveniently ignoring the second season under Mick where we were shit against everyone around us and only survived because of all the points we harvested against the big six.
 
Hmmmm


Conveniently ignoring the second season under Mick where we were shit against everyone around us and only survived because of all the points we harvested against the big six.

Good point! The exception to prove a rule just like last November made up for the previous 3.
 
Hmmmm


Conveniently ignoring the second season under Mick where we were shit against everyone around us and only survived because of all the points we harvested against the big six.

It's been fun today. Off to bed now.

Back on the meds tomorrow

:icon_lol:

Edit: Ah let you off I thought that was your direct response to Paddy's post Cyber haha!
 
Watford didn't go three in midfield though, they played their usual 4-2-2-2, the surprise was that they went with Deulofeu and Success up top and omitted Gray (with Deeney injured). There was nothing in the game until they went ahead with a goal out of nowhere and then they scored again within seconds. With the best will in the world not many teams turn around a 2-0 deficit in this league, we have even less of a chance as we don't score that many.
 
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