Cardiff 0-1 Wolves: Verdict Thread

[Tony Towner]

As things stand we have the Top 5 still to play 3 at home 2 away and the leagues form team Forest away. That will make or break our season

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

As things stand we have the Top 5 still to play 3 at home 2 away. That will make or break our season

All about catching them at the right time (and playing our own game properly). Derby have started leaking goals all over the place and Bent went off injured today, so let's hope they're still on a downward curve in three weeks. A bit like how the likes of Derby/Brentford were lucky to face us when Dicko was out with no proper replacement and our confidence was on the floor.

I don't think any team in this division will feel confident about facing our attacking players now.

 

[Quirkafleeg]

Why's it need editing in the 1st place?

You didn't put the score in..

 

[SSB]

What a win. I'm off to celebrate with a beer :beerchug:

 

[FrankMunro-371]

Norwich play Ipswich tomorrow, so something must give there. Carry on as we are and who knows where we might finish.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

We are[emoji6]

In reverse chronological order these are the 6th placed totals in this league over the last 20 years:

72, 68, 75, 75, 70, 74, 70, 75, 75, 73, 73, 74, 75, 74, 76, 76, 74, 71, 71, 72.

So while it's not impossible that we'll need 80 points or more, it would be an extreme statistical outlier. Like if we'd needed 95 points to finish 2nd in League One last season, which of course ended up being nowhere near the case despite mass fear that we would need that many around this time 12 months ago. I think it's likely we're going to need to be at the very top end of the scale - we might even need more than anyone else has needed over the last 20 years, 77 or 78, let's say. I don't think you're going to see such a wide, random divergence from a trend over such a long period though. Four points more than the maximum is a lot.

 

[WarwickWolf]

In reverse chronological order these are the 6th placed totals in this league over the last 20 years:

72, 68, 75, 75, 70, 74, 70, 75, 75, 73, 73, 74, 75, 74, 76, 76, 74, 71, 71, 72.

So while it's not impossible that we'll need 80 points or more, it would be an extreme statistical outlier. Like if we'd needed 95 points to finish 2nd in League One last season, which of course ended up being nowhere near the case despite mass fear that we would need that many around this time 12 months ago. I think it's likely we're going to need to be at the very top end of the scale - we might even need more than anyone else has needed over the last 20 years, 77 or 78, let's say. I don't think you're going to see such a wide, random divergence from a trend over such a long period though. Four points more than the maximum is a lot.

This is why I love Deutsch.

 

[fizzwolf]

Excellent with a capital E result

 

[FrankMunro-371]

Dan, your football knowledge never ceases to amaze me.

I wonder if teams above us are getting a little nervous as we gradually rein them in?

 

[fizzwolf]

Dan, your football knowledge never ceases to amaze me.

I haven't got the patience to do such indepth research on tinternet and appreciate reading it -let's hope there are some stats next week on when we last won four games on the bounce without conceding 3-)

 

[arklowolf]

In reverse chronological order these are the 6th placed totals in this league over the last 20 years:

72, 68, 75, 75, 70, 74, 70, 75, 75, 73, 73, 74, 75, 74, 76, 76, 74, 71, 71, 72.

So while it's not impossible that we'll need 80 points or more, it would be an extreme statistical outlier. Like if we'd needed 95 points to finish 2nd in League One last season, which of course ended up being nowhere near the case despite mass fear that we would need that many around this time 12 months ago. I think it's likely we're going to need to be at the very top end of the scale - we might even need more than anyone else has needed over the last 20 years, 77 or 78, let's say. I don't think you're going to see such a wide, random divergence from a trend over such a long period though. Four points more than the maximum is a lot.

Yep top stuff DW.
Looking at the BBC league table online we've only lost two out of the last ten, only problem is the teams above us have similar form over the same period. There's a bit of a gap between the top eight and the rest opening up. We really need some good results over those above us if we are to overhaul any of them. Lot of football still to be played yet.

 

[Dublin Drummer Wolf]

Dan, your football knowledge never ceases to amaze me.

I wonder if teams above us are getting a little nervous as we gradually rein them in?

With the greatest of respect to DW, it's not like his pulled those stats off the top of his head! Have you heard of Google? Lol

Agree with DW's point though. 12 games left. We should win at least 6. 18 points + 57 = 75 points plus any points from draws. So we should be ok with about 75-77 points.

 

[machin05]

He probably did, tbf!

 

[Tony Towner]

In reverse chronological order these are the 6th placed totals in this league over the last 20 years:

72, 68, 75, 75, 70, 74, 70, 75, 75, 73, 73, 74, 75, 74, 76, 76, 74, 71, 71, 72.

So while it's not impossible that we'll need 80 points or more, it would be an extreme statistical outlier. Like if we'd needed 95 points to finish 2nd in League One last season, which of course ended up being nowhere near the case despite mass fear that we would need that many around this time 12 months ago. I think it's likely we're going to need to be at the very top end of the scale - we might even need more than anyone else has needed over the last 20 years, 77 or 78, let's say. I don't think you're going to see such a wide, random divergence from a trend over such a long period though. Four points more than the maximum is a lot.

The flip to that is how low the teams points at the top are, it's a poor league where there aren't really any stand out teams which leaves the top teams with a low total and the play off teams with a high one. 80 for us (79 for others) may be too high, but i do think it will take a record.

 

[Prof Heinz Wolff]

It's all to play for. Would not rule out an assault on the top 2 places. Derby are 8 points ahead of us but we are going to play them at home soon and we owe them for them thrashing us earlier in the season so that gap could come down to 5 points.

i still prefer the idea of a late run into the play offs and finishing 6th where we get to play the 'de-moralised' team who come 3rd and just missed out on automatic and then we beat them

maybe someone can google stats for how many teams go up in play offs in 6th position vs from 3rd ?

 

[Dublin Drummer Wolf]

He probably did, tbf!

Ha! Bloody football oracle! Well Dan, did you have all the points memorised from the 6th placed teams over the last 20 years?

 

[Prof Heinz Wolff]

OK answering my own question thanks to google

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/22437083

Looks like it's a bit 50-50 with teams from 5th/6th just as likely to prevail in playoffs compared with teams finishing 3rd/4th

 

[Prof Heinz Wolff]

I think i may be scarred by Wolves experience of finishing 3rd and getting knocked out by the 6th place team twice !

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

We'll leave out 1994/5 because only one team went up automatically that year.

Leicester (5th)
Palace (6th)
Charlton (4th)
Watford (5th)
Ipswich (3rd)
Bolton (3rd)
Birmingham (5th)
Wolves (5th)
Palace (6th)
West Ham (6th)
Watford (3rd)
Derby (3rd)
Hull (3rd)
Burnley (5th)
Blackpool (6th)
Swansea (3rd)
West Ham (3rd)
Palace (5th)
QPR (4th)

3rd: 7 wins
4th: 2 wins
5th: 6 wins
6th: 4 wins

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Ha! Bloody football oracle! Well Dan, did you have all the points memorised from the 6th placed teams over the last 20 years?

I didn't, no. I'm not that good.