2024 General Election Thread

[Langers]

Well until we have the electoral equivalent of Sir Jack's thumbs up, I refuse to believe it

 

[pr0sl0]

That'll be Laura Kuenssberg's voice cracking as she reads out the exit poll at 10pm tomorrow.

 

[Tony Towner]

I'd still be surprised if Reform get as many as 7 seats. Farage is a given, Anderson a maybe where are they expected to win outside of that though? I think I'm right in saying that they have more council seats in Derby than anywhere else and they are all in the same constituency, but that's expected to stay Labour. A lot of strong 2nds, but 7 wins, I'm not so sure.

 

[Langers]

That'll be Laura Kuenssberg's voice cracking as she reads out the exit poll at 10pm tomorrow.

And this will be me watching it..

 

[Kenny]

And this will be me watching it..

Meanwhile in the home of @Del Woppio

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

To any Conservative Voter

Stay at Home
Protect the NHS
Save Lives

 

[Sniffer]

Meanwhile in the home of @Del Woppio

Is that what he does prior to his power nap so that he can wake up for the sweet spot of the night?

 

[lemonjelly]

He's just had a poppable moment there...

 

[Tyrannosaurus Dan]

I'd still be surprised if Reform get as many as 7 seats. Farage is a given, Anderson a maybe where are they expected to win outside of that though? I think I'm right in saying that they have more council seats in Derby than anywhere else and they are all in the same constituency, but that's expected to stay Labour. A lot of strong 2nds, but 7 wins, I'm not so sure.

Labour expects surge of ‘shy Reform’ voters in some northern and Midlands seats

Activists forecast margins of fewer than 2,000 votes separating them from Farage’s party – or even a shock defeat

www.theguardian.com

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Thars just a way of getting their vote out

 

[darlowolf64]

Labour expects surge of ‘shy Reform’ voters in some northern and Midlands seats

Activists forecast margins of fewer than 2,000 votes separating them from Farage’s party – or even a shock defeat

www.theguardian.com

The more voters who switch from Rishi to Reform the better up here because then the Labour vote will beat them both

 

[pr0sl0]

I'd still be surprised if Reform get as many as 7 seats. Farage is a given, Anderson a maybe where are they expected to win outside of that though? I think I'm right in saying that they have more council seats in Derby than anywhere else and they are all in the same constituency, but that's expected to stay Labour. A lot of strong 2nds, but 7 wins, I'm not so sure.

We are in a very strange place with FPTP. There are going to be a lot of extremely marginal results where seat winners achieve tiny majorities by coming through the middle of two other parties cancelling each other out.

It's why the seat projections are varying so much between pollsters even if the topline voting shares are relatively similar (although there has been some divergence in the final couple of weeks of the campaign when it comes to Labour's lead in particular, reflecting different levels of weighting for eg tactical voting). Reform could get a dozen seats, it could get 25 seats, or it could be a total bust - on current polling there's really no way to be entirely sure, not even with Farage in Clacton, because it's so hard to model how the different vote levels are sloshing around the country.

Same thing is happening in Scotland with the SNP. Loads and loads of three-way marginals (Tory-Labour-SNP) up there on current polling, which could go all sorts of ways depending on how efficiently the unionist vote unites behind one or other of the unionist parties standing against the SNP. Some projections have Labour becoming the largest party in Scotland again, some have things remaining relatively stable, it's difficult to predict.

 

[Sniffer]

The Sun and The Standard have come out in favour of Labour.

 

[Kenny]

The Sun and The Standard have come out in favour of Labour.

 

[Tony Towner]

Should have been true to their readership and backed Farage. It does at least give Starmer something of a honeymoon period though.

 

[YoungWolf]

wow, they really are going to get annihilated aren’t they. I should be more excited than I am, I just can’t help but feel in the long run not that much is changing

 

[YoungWolf]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1808458226142196083

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

We are in a very strange place with FPTP. There are going to be a lot of extremely marginal results where seat winners achieve tiny majorities by coming through the middle of two other parties cancelling each other out.

It's why the seat projections are varying so much between pollsters even if the topline voting shares are relatively similar (although there has been some divergence in the final couple of weeks of the campaign when it comes to Labour's lead in particular, reflecting different levels of weighting for eg tactical voting). Reform could get a dozen seats, it could get 25 seats, or it could be a total bust - on current polling there's really no way to be entirely sure, not even with Farage in Clacton, because it's so hard to model how the different vote levels are sloshing around the country.

Same thing is happening in Scotland with the SNP. Loads and loads of three-way marginals (Tory-Labour-SNP) up there on current polling, which could go all sorts of ways depending on how efficiently the unionist vote unites behind one or other of the unionist parties standing against the SNP. Some projections have Labour becoming the largest party in Scotland again, some have things remaining relatively stable, it's difficult to predict.

Yeah, it's one of the many inherent problems with FPTP. Had a big impact in 2019 too with the Tories picking up lots of (mainly northern) seats that wouldn't normally get anywhere near their radar, but nearly all by wafer-thin majorities. So the landslide we ended up with wasn't even close to representative of the overall popular vote, and was always going to be vulnerable to tipping back (to at least some extent) at the next election, unless the Tories and Johnson in particular were lights-out spectacularly good (lolz).

 

[Kenny]

Should have been true to their readership and backed Farage. It does at least give Starmer something of a honeymoon period though.

From their less than brilliant backing of Labour, they have gone with Farage is ace but Reform are a one man band. Essentially protecting themselves from being backers of their overly racist candidates

 

[pr0sl0]

Yeah, it's one of the many inherent problems with FPTP. Had a big impact in 2019 too with the Tories picking up lots of (mainly northern) seats that wouldn't normally get anywhere near their radar, but nearly all by wafer-thin majorities. So the landslide we ended up with wasn't even close to representative of the overall popular vote, and was always going to be vulnerable to tipping back (to at least some extent) at the next election, unless the Tories and Johnson in particular were lights-out spectacularly good (lolz).

That's the temptation Farage is relying on post-election. "You see? When we worked together, we won big."

Another example of how weird things might get tomorrow - Survation just put out their final (non-MRP) poll of the campaign:



Put that into the FT's seat predictor and it thinks Reform will win seven seats... but all of them, apart from Clacton, would be in Scotland, with Reform coming through the middle to win in three-way Lab/Tory/SNP marginals. Completely batshit, but there will almost certainly be results just as nonsensical tomorrow.