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Yackity Yack, Let's Talk Zack

Making a few assumptions here, but if we were to say that the current polling rate of green and reform is down to the enthusiasm of those that want change, then the switch from labour and conservative to those two has already occurred. It won't get any worse (in theory). I don't think there is a vast swathe of the 40% who couldn't be arsed last time (when Farage and co were already on the ballot paper, and so were the greens, albeit under different leadership) that are suddenly going to be queueing up to vote for the two new gigs. I really don't. Much of the apathy is political apathy in general rather than party related. The "why bother, they are all the same" brigade - and let's be brutally honest, here, the Starmer government hasn't actually been seen to do a great deal to shift those types of thoughts in the apathetic.

So, with those assumptions, I think the current level is actually the Reform high water mark. They aren't going to go much further. And the Greens? Who knows? To get to being level in percentage vote with the big two would be a phenomenal performance in a general election. Achievable, but it really would be something to see. Let's say it happens.

Then, let's assume that first past the post doesn't stymie Reform and Green. When every evidence suggests it almost certainly will. Let's further assume that there is no tactical voting. So seats end up representing almost exactly the current polling state of play.

It would be a hung parliament, with Reform as the largest party, with green, Conservative and labour all around the same, and the Lib Dems a little bit smaller. Then the odds and sods, and Sinn Fein no-shows.

Who is going to get into bed with Farage to get him to a majority? Absolutely no-one. Even Bad Enoch wouldn't do it, as he would insist on senior partnership in that deal which effectively kills the Conservatives stone dead. And her own party wouldn't accept such a deal. And even if that happened, a combined Reform Conservative coalition is going to be a long way short of any sort of majority.

The only possible working coalition that might get to 325 seats is likely to be Labour / Green / Lib-Dem. Which would make for quite an entertaining cat fight sorting out who has precedence.

So maybe we see minority government? They are basically very vulnerable to votes of no confidence, so there could be elections on the Italian scale of regularity.
 
Templeton Peck said:
I'm just saying their seats aren't indicative of any great love for Labour. The 33% of 60% (already historically low), isn't made up of hardcore Labour voters - half of them have gone already.
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They aren't, equally the current showing in the polls isn't a huge dislike of the Labour Party, it's a dislike of it's leader.

As for hardcore Labour voters If you look at where their vote has gone in the Midlands and North in council elections then by and large it's to Reform not Green. I'm not talking activists here, but your average Joe in working class areas. Sweeping statement but Green are picking up the younger demographic, not traditional voters in a similar way to how Corbyn did initially.
 
Paddingtonwolf said:
Making a few assumptions here, but if we were to say that the current polling rate of green and reform is down to the enthusiasm of those that want change, then the switch from labour and conservative to those two has already occurred. It won't get any worse (in theory). I don't think there is a vast swathe of the 40% who couldn't be arsed last time (when Farage and co were already on the ballot paper, and so were the greens, albeit under different leadership) that are suddenly going to be queueing up to vote for the two new gigs. I really don't. Much of the apathy is political apathy in general rather than party related. The "why bother, they are all the same" brigade - and let's be brutally honest, here, the Starmer government hasn't actually been seen to do a great deal to shift those types of thoughts in the apathetic.

So, with those assumptions, I think the current level is actually the Reform high water mark. They aren't going to go much further. And the Greens? Who knows? To get to being level in percentage vote with the big two would be a phenomenal performance in a general election. Achievable, but it really would be something to see. Let's say it happens.

Then, let's assume that first past the post doesn't stymie Reform and Green. When every evidence suggests it almost certainly will. Let's further assume that there is no tactical voting. So seats end up representing almost exactly the current polling state of play.

It would be a hung parliament, with Reform as the largest party, with green, Conservative and labour all around the same, and the Lib Dems a little bit smaller. Then the odds and sods, and Sinn Fein no-shows.

Who is going to get into bed with Farage to get him to a majority? Absolutely no-one. Even Bad Enoch wouldn't do it, as he would insist on senior partnership in that deal which effectively kills the Conservatives stone dead. And her own party wouldn't accept such a deal. And even if that happened, a combined Reform Conservative coalition is going to be a long way short of any sort of majority.

The only possible working coalition that might get to 325 seats is likely to be Labour / Green / Lib-Dem. Which would make for quite an entertaining cat fight sorting out who has precedence.

So maybe we see minority government? They are basically very vulnerable to votes of no confidence, so there could be elections on the Italian scale of regularity.
Click to expand...
We're already there with the Italian bit. Our two parties aren't willing or able to face the problems the average person is dealing with and our voting system squeezes out other voices. It's broken, and has been for some time. The only benefit of FPTP was the idea it produced stability. That's a laughable claim to make now.
 
Tony Towner said:
They aren't, equally the current showing in the polls isn't a huge dislike of the Labour Party, it's a dislike of it's leader.

As for hardcore Labour voters If you look at where their vote has gone in the Midlands and North in council elections then by and large it's to Reform not Green. I'm not talking activists here, but your average Joe in working class areas. Sweeping statement but Green are picking up the younger demographic, not traditional voters in a similar way to how Corbyn did initially.
Click to expand...
Green are ahead with every age group under 65. As always, it's the boomers.
 
Holy shit, just seen the front page of todays daily mail.
The mail editors are worried for sure...
 
Templeton Peck said:
We're already there with the Italian bit. Our two parties aren't willing or able to face the problems the average person is dealing with and our voting system squeezes out other voices. It's broken, and has been for some time. The only benefit of FPTP was the idea it produced stability. That's a laughable claim to make now.
Click to expand...
I may be wrong but the last prime minister to lose a confidence vote in the house rather than a party committee room was I think Callaghan.

Strangely enough the last proper minority government. May was propped up by the northern irish nutters and Call Me Dave had Liberal scapegoats.
 
Christ, I'd forgotten about May going cap in hand to them. It didn't get enough scrutiny how fucked up that was.
 
A billion quid for NI, rather than the DUP.

And, if you agree that parties are there to deliver for their constituents, then their actions are understandable - they had huge leverage and used it.
 
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