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Yackity Yack, Let's Talk Zack

Reform winning might be for the best of the left in the long term.

But not for people generally.
 
According to the bookmakers reform aren’t winning the Gorton by election. If they don’t that’ll be 2 on the trot where they have lost when it looked prime for a supposed party on the rise to win.
I think Farage has shot himself in the foot by hiring unliked Conservatives and the by election will hopefully show that the country Will happily unite against him to keep him out.
 
I just don't see them winning outright (even allowing for how many idiots we have who are able to vote) and not a single other party, not even the mental Nordie ones, will work with them as if you don't like Farage, you think he's a fucking cunt, there is no middle ground.
 
It's a position Dean Saunders wouldn't agree with, but I'm not sure you can derive much from bookmaker odds on by-elections, I can't imagine it's a market that sees much volume
 
Elephant Pyjamas said:
Reform winning might be for the best of the left in the long term.

But not for people generally.
Click to expand...

Hard right, then lurch hard left, then lurch….

I know the current Conservatives and Labour are miles away from giving their traditional supporters what they want but tbh I think even if they did there’s no appetite for moderate thinking anymore.

Seems everyone hates everyone else and is just voting to save the world from what they see as the insanity of other side, and is quite prepared to turn a blind eye to their own Achilles heels to achieve it.
 
Del Woppio said:
It's a position Dean Saunders wouldn't agree with, but I'm not sure you can derive much from bookmaker odds on by-elections, I can't imagine it's a market that sees much volume
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Only £843k wagered on the Betfair to win it market.
 
Starmer turning up at the weekend suggests confidence. There's an irony in Labour getting a thumping majority because the Tory vote split with Reform and now there's going the same way with the Greens
 
Latest on Betfair
Greens 1.54
Reform 4.2
Labour 8
 
Greens strength is they don't have to worry about Reform. They are what they are and very clear about it. Don't like them? Don't vote for them. It's refreshing to have a leader talk about policies without worrying what gammon Dagenham Dave thinks about it.

The next election will come down to a very clear choice between two very different parties.
 
Templeton Peck said:
Greens strength is they don't have to worry about Reform. They are what they are and very clear about it. Don't like them? Don't vote for them. It's refreshing to have a leader talk about policies without worrying what gammon Dagenham Dave thinks about it.

The next election will come down to a very clear choice between two very different parties.
Click to expand...
Labour will poll higher than Green at the next election and will win more seats. It's a mid-term phenomenon that'll burn out, particularly once Polanski comes under scrutiny. Reform unfortunately isn't, the only hope is the even nuttier take votes off them.
 
Tony Towner said:
Labour will poll higher than Green at the next election and will win more seats. It's a mid-term phenomenon that'll burn out, particularly once Polanski comes under scrutiny. Reform unfortunately isn't, the only hope is the even nuttier take votes off them.
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Nope. Labour are done.
 
In GE24 they polled 33% on 60% turnout - 2nd lowest turnout since WW2. There was never any great enthusiasm for Starmer's Labour. 1/3 of their vote was purely based on people wanting to get rid of the Conservatives.

Less than half GE24 Labour voters intend to vote Labour next time.
 
Templeton Peck said:
In GE24 they polled 33% on 60% turnout - 2nd lowest turnout since WW2. There was never any great enthusiasm for Starmer's Labour. 1/3 of their vote was purely based on people wanting to get rid of the Conservatives.

Less than half GE24 Labour voters intend to vote Labour next time.
Click to expand...
Without passing comment either way, you can’t prove anything with that kind of stat. At General Elections a massive chunk of the vote for a new winning side is always because people want to get rid of the incumbents. You can’t hold that against them, it’s how it is.
 
Equally low turnout is endemic in UK elections of the 21st century. So all the parties are done by that logic.
 
Mel Evo said:
Without passing comment either way, you can’t prove anything with that kind of stat. At General Elections a massive chunk of the vote for a new winning side is always because people want to get rid of the incumbents. You can’t hold that against them, it’s how it is.
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I'm just saying their seats aren't indicative of any great love for Labour. The 33% of 60% (already historically low), isn't made up of hardcore Labour voters - half of them have gone already.
 
Paddingtonwolf said:
Equally low turnout is endemic in UK elections of the 21st century. So all the parties are done by that logic.
Click to expand...
Well yeah but the low turnout is due to apathy - with Labour and Conservative. People will turn out for Reform and Green as they're seen (rightly or wrongly) as a clear change.
 
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