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The TWF Horse Racing Thread

Nando said:
I've got a little double on Un De Sceaux and Vautour at 20/1 for the Arkle and JLT respectively. UDS was extraordinary on Sunday but I've got concerns over Vautour. The JLT looks hot this year.
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If Un de Sceaux stands up he wins simple, but I read a piece recently that Mullins Novice Chasers have a funny stat they either win/second or a high percentage fall (as Un de Sceaux has done in his 3 races 2 wins 1 fall) and as he will be odds on I think it would be better looking at each ways in that race, I know he got beat well Sunday but I like Clarcam.

Agree about Vautour as well, same horse Clarcam beat him well at Leopardstown, had him in trouble even before he made the bad mistake.

Champion Hurdle I think Faugheen will be hard to beat.
 
Can't go on Gold Cup day this year as the missus has pulled rank, so instead I'm going on the Tuesday and Thursday.

Also, just booked for Punchestown Festival from the Tuesday until the Friday.
 
Donegal Wolf said:
If Un de Sceaux stands up he wins simple, but I read a piece recently that Mullins Novice Chasers have a funny stat they either win/second or a high percentage fall (as Un de Sceaux has done in his 3 races 2 wins 1 fall) and as he will be odds on I think it would be better looking at each ways in that race, I know he got beat well Sunday but I like Clarcam.

Agree about Vautour as well, same horse Clarcam beat him well at Leopardstown, had him in trouble even before he made the bad mistake.

Champion Hurdle I think Faugheen will be hard to beat.
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I backed Clarcam on Sunday but he was absolutely slammed and Cooper seemed to suggest he ran his race which isn't encouraging when he's been beaten 15 lengths receiving 10 lbs.

Vibrato Valtat would have been my EW bet for the race at 20/1 but he's come right in to 12's now which don't really appeal. It's looking like it's going to cut up big time though. We could end up with just UDS, Josses Hill, VV, Clarcam and Sgt Reckless.

Ptit Zig to serve it right up to Vautour in the JLT - he's been superb over fences.
 
Yes - it would appear you are as bad at it as me, and that is a challenging bar.
 
Paddingtonwolf said:
Yes - it would appear you are as bad at it as me, and that is a challenging bar.
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I only actually place a bet once a year, when I have a few bob on the Grand National. My knowledge of horse racing could be wrote on the back of a postage stamp with plenty of space left...
 
I won a stack when Generous won the Derby. Since then I have barely placed a bet. I am a very poor gambler in terms of ability, and that will result in being very poor in terms of financials rather quickly if I did give it a go.
 
Fair play to anyone who can make regular money on horse , I've tried loads of different formulas I just can't fathom it out.

Football betting is far easier and that still isn't easy.
 
slink said:
Look forward to that Murphy, shame this thread only starts up now and again.
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I always try to contribute on a regular basis. This thread is one of the main reasons I joined this forum. However since September time I've been pretty preoccupied with life in general. I haven't seen The Wolves since Wigan at home! However I've tried to keep my eye on the horses as best I could and I'm looking forward to The Festival coming round.
 
Three weeks to the festival!

Let's play the Willie Mullins big favourites game!
You have to name a banker, bet on two more, lay two and place lay one out of the following:
Douvan (Supreme), Un De Sceaux (Arkle), Faugheen (Champion Hurdle), Annie Power (Mares Hurdle), Don Poli (RSA), Vautour (JLT)

I'll go:
Banker - Un De Sceaux
Win Bets - Annie Power, Vautour
Lays - Faugheen, Don Poli,
Place Lay - Douvan

Wouldn't really lay Faugheen in real life, but just a bit of fun and interesting to see different opinions!
 
I think i would go exactly the same. Nothing gets near Un De Sceaux in the Arkle for me. Annie Power is better than Glens Melody from the same stable and i'm not sure there is much between that horse and Aurore D'estruval. Vautour has a big chance but i still rate Ptit Zig and there are a couple of others in the JLT like Apache Stronghold who have chances.

Faugheen could be the next big national hunt star but i can't desert TNO now and think he would have won with a clear run last year. The RSA loooks a strong race if they all line up, Don Poli, Kings Palace, Coneygree, Southfield Theatre and The Young Master.

Douvan could well win and hack up but i'm not sure he has beat anything yet. Think L'ami Serge looks a good horse and then the likes of Jollyallan, Nichols Canyon and Qewy all have chances.
 
Can't have The New One at all. He got seriously outpaced in it last year. He was impeded but was back with the pack before being left for dead when those at the front turned it on before staying on well again. Faugheen will kick him into the stands when Ruby asks him to.

Can't have Vautour at the price even if he looked remarkable in the Supreme. He's beaten nothing to warrant how short he is. Looks a hot race too and like Slink I really like PZ and AS.

Vibrato Valtat has gone largely under the radar and UDS style of running should play into his hands. Whether he has the ability to keep within touch is questionable. UDS should win if he stays on his feet but no chance I'm backing him at that price.

Novice hurdles looks like an absolute minefield. Couldn't put anything up with any confidence.
 
I think TNO is a better horse than both Jezki and Hurricane Fly, he is a better horse this year too apart from his run on bottomless ground at Haydock (not sure why he ran)
Watch the Champion Hurdle from last year again Nando, he lost 5/6 lengths easy when impeded and had to make that up, he did make it up then got outpaced and ran on when he was able to. If he's there come the last then he will have a great chance as he comes up that hill as good as any horse.
Of course Faugheen could be an absolute monster but TNO is not out of the first 2 for me and it's between those.
 
The likelihood is though that he isn't going to be with them come the last as he hasn't got the change of gear that Jezki, MTOY and Hurricane Fly showed last year before we even consider Faugheen. They leave him standing between 3 and 2 out without really being asked a question whilst STD is hard at work trying to keep on terms.

He'll be flying up the hill, no doubt about it, but he's going to need to stay with them somehow when the pace is injected and I just can't see it.
 
I agree with Nando regarding TNO, last year he did get impeded and if he had come to the last in the lead and weakened up the hill then I would go with the theory that Our Conor's fall cost him the race but it was the turn off pace of the others at the turn for home which caused him to drop away, if he is level going up the hill then he will probably win but the worry is getting in a position for that to happen. I would disregard his run at Haydock as well but wonder why they felt it necessary to give him a race which on the look of it would do him no favours. I don't think Fly or Jezki are in the same form as last year, Mullins other horse whose name escapes me has been in the mix with them on the last 2 races based on that I think Faugheen will do it although the fact he hasn't won since xmas is a concern.

I am torn on UDS (I backed him antepost last year for the CH), if he stands up he wins but Mullins has a poor record with chasers in the UK and his record at the festival with them is atrocious plus I watched the race when he fell, he was 20 lengths clear under no pressure, coming down the hill at Cheltenham with 2 or 3 around him will test him, to counter that, is will any of them be around him at that point? I would have to see the price before deciding what to do.

As Slink says Douvan hasnt beaten anything but hearing the noise's coming from Mullins yard they are bullish about him and one thing they do know about is novice hurdlers.

So I would go
Banker - Douvan
Win Bets - Faugheen, Annie Power (would have liked to see her run this year)
Lay Win - Don Poli, UDS (not a hope I would do this in real life even with someone else's money)
Lay Place - Vautour (hasn't impressed me, folded very easily Boxing Day)
 
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