The Race to be Relegated 24/25 Thread

[Tony Towner]

12 points from like for like games last season, kinda kills that argument and also shows we don't just roll over the other half of the league given those 9 games were a ⅓ of our total points

 

[The Bear]

I did say we've underperformed points wise. You can't always keep getting results against the top teams. Eventually your luck runs out and if you go on a bad run it can snowball to what's happened to us this season whereby you win none of them.

 

[Carsy]

12 points from like for like games last season, kinda kills that argument and also shows we don't just roll over the other half of the league given those 9 games were a ⅓ of our total points

The argument as in ‘we’ve had a difficult start’?

Whilst you’re right about the 12 points from like for like last year, that also shows every year is different. Doesn’t mean those games will be 1/3 of our points this year does it (let’s hope not otherwise I think we might go down with 6 points )

 

[prawnking]

I did say we've underperformed points wise. You can't always keep getting results against the top teams.

Newcastle, Villa and Brentford aren't 'the top teams'

 

[Tony Towner]

I did say we've ubderperformed points wise. You can't always keep getting results against the top teams. Eventually your luck runs out and if you go on a bad run ⁸it can snowball to what's happened to us this season whereby you win none of them.

The argument as in ‘we’ve had a difficult start’?

Whilst you’re right about the 12 points from like for like last year, that also shows every year is different. Doesn’t mean those games will be 1/3 of our points this year does it (let’s hope not otherwise I think we might go down with 6 points )

Equally nobody loses to everyone above them and beats those below them. That's Cyber levels of madness.
As an example Newcastle have played 5 away games, they've won one. Guess who that was against?

 

[Tony Towner]

An alternative way of looking at it is a team invariably stays up based on it's home form. This season P4 L4, including last season P9, L8. In that was 2 defeats against a couple of the teams we have to beat in the next month

 

[Carsy]

Equally nobody loses to everyone above them and beats those below them. That's Cyber levels of madness.
As an example Newcastle have played 5 away games, they've won one. Guess who that was against?

Wild stab in the dark… us

Next few games are crucial, no matter how GoN dresses them up as ‘not must wins’. Also will have a big bearing on what we do in January.

 

[jd1981]

It’s just a flawed argument that 9 of the fixtures are just too hard.
It’s basically admitting that we’re not good enough at this level.
To highlight how flawed it is if we’d got a point out of Newcastle they’d be 15th on 10 points, Brentford would’ve been sat around 13/14th if we’d got just a point from them.
2 of the next winnable games are v sides above Newcastle.
Home games v Newcastle and Chelsea it’s not unreasonable to expect at least 2 points from those games nor is it from Brentford away.
There’s very little historical evidence to suggest we get out of this.

 

[The Bear]

Newcastle, Villa and Brentford aren't 'the top teams'

Okay, the teams in the top half of the table then.

 

[The Bear]

Equally nobody loses to everyone above them and beats those below them. That's Cyber levels of madness.
As an example Newcastle have played 5 away games, they've won one. Guess who that was against?

I agree in principle. But we've had the perfect storm of a bad run of fixtures, very little luck on pitch, and more shit officiating decisions has meant we are on a terrible run.

The defending hadn't helped obviously, but the fixtures meant we've been punished ruthlessly for it.

 

[Tony Towner]

I agree in principle. But we've had the perfect storm of a bad run of fixtures, very little luck on pitch, and more shit officiating decisions has meant we are on a terrible run.

The defending hadn't helped obviously, but the fixtures meant we've been punished ruthlessly for it.

Don't get me wrong, I'm all for the hope and optimism, without that then it's pretty pointless being a fan, but all the metrics plus the eye test say all of a sudden getting 2 points a game or thereabouts for the next couple pf months isn't realistic irrespective of the opposition

 

[The Bear]

Don't get me wrong, I'm all for the hope and optimism, without that then it's pretty pointless being a fan, but all the metrics plus the eye test say all of a sudden getting 2 points a game or thereabouts for the next couple pf months isn't realistic irrespective of the opposition

It'll be tough for sure, but you have to have some optimism. I'm usually a glass half full person too.

I'm not as confident as other fans and pundits I see recently who are somehow sure we'll be completely fine or finish mid table but I think we're scoring enough goals to give me hope we can string enough points together until Christmas to get out of the bottom three.

 

[Johnny75]

I agree in principle. But we've had the perfect storm of a bad run of fixtures, very little luck on pitch, and more shit officiating decisions has meant we are on a terrible run.

The defending hadn't helped obviously, but the fixtures meant we've been punished ruthlessly for it.

We've been shit because of the manager not the fixtures or luck on the pitch.

Those are such smalltime feeble excuses a loser manager would use, just like GoN.

 

[Johnny75]

Okay, the teams in the top half of the table then.

So you're writing off 10 teams?

That's just ridiculous.

 

[KiwiWolf61]

The discussion is on the Brighton thread, but I'll put it here as it's probably more relevant.

It's been said that we have a chance of staying up because we have goals in us, which is a fair surface level comment, however in the 30 odd years of the PL the team scoring fewest has stayed up on a number of occasions, most recently Wolves 2 seasons ago.

When they have the solo  worst GA record they have gone down every single year without exception. On a couple of occasions where its joint one has stayed up.

As it stands we've conceded 25% more goals than anybody else.

Spot on.

Under Mick in 2009/10 we were the lowest scorers with 32 goals but we only conceded 56 which was the lowest of the bottom 8. It wasn’t pretty but for most of the season Mick managed to keep the team clear of serious relegation.

Keeping clean sheets or not leaking goals like a sieve is the number one requisite for survival in the PL - it ain’t fucking rocket science but our idiot of a manager and the board are beyond even understanding this basic rule.

Compared to our previous PL relegations in 03/04 and 11/12 our squad (despite its weaknesses and imbalances) should be comfortably above the relegation spots. Any half decent PL manager could organize them accordingly. Actually we used to have one but he’s at Forest now and look how they’re going.

I used to be a supporter of GON but not anymore. I’m sick to death of hearing of his utterances especially the woe is me/us re the fixtures and being a small club. We’re only a small club in his mind not ours.

I’ve resigned myself to relegation this season . . . and life goes on.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

The problem is the succession of beatings and the lack of a win since Luton has almost certainly dented morale and we don't know how to win. Maybe the late comeback at Brighton might breed a bit of confidence but it is a bit of leap to see it being the catalyst to a strong surge in form.

 

[DogWeasel]

Could have been like Villa (although they had a lot of luck) but our owners chose not to.

Im so fucking annoyed about that.

 

[jd1981]

Some of our fans genuinely believe we’ll pick between 16-18 points between now and Boxing Day. If we did I think it would have us about 15th-16th and still in danger.
That’s the grim reality of the whole thing even wildly optimistic predictions still leave us teetering on the edge.
The more realistic you’re when looking at the situation you realise that everything is already stacked against. Also post Boxing Day we hit another tough set of fixtures that people will discard.
Clubs near the bottom don’t have feast-famine-feast-famine type seasons it’s usually famine with occasional win dotted about.

 

[Haggstone]

We will know more about our chances after Saturday, lose that and we are done I think. Win the next two games and we have a fighting chance. We have a chance because we have three teams in touching distance, and a clutch of clubs just above that group. Non of whom we have actually played yet. While it's difficult to see us putting together top half form between now and xmas, the same surely applies to the other sides down there too?

 

[Tony Towner]

Not defending them and there are a couple on here who do too, but they've been conditioned to think that way by all the noises from inside the club. It'll not be long to see whose correct.