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Stats and Analysis Thread

Johnny75 said:
That's not true either.

It's a combination of both. Neither should be dismissed or held up as the one thing that works.
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Well they are the only thing I need to know whether Traore has had a good season or not. Spoiler - he hasn't
 
AndyWolves said:
It's about collecting data that can be used for comparison.

If we evaluated assists based on who's on the end of them then Dennis Pierce would look amazing. It's irrelevant when comparing which players generate more assists.

Saying Adamas xA are worth less because Podence is on the end of them misses the point. Likewise, an "inferior" assister would be scored higher for assisting Raul.
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I can only think you don't understand football or you like comparing meaningless stats for the sake of it.

Stats have to have a purpose and if you're saying X player creates chances and it's not his fault those players don't convert those chances you are missing the point of football entirely.

And showing how useless the stat is in isolation.
 
Tony Towner said:
Well they are the only thing I need to know whether Traore has had a good season or not. Spoiler - he hasn't
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Your eyes don't prove why he's had a shit season is the point.

Andy's 'blame it on others' not the stats is just the lack of understanding of how to use stats in football effectively and for a purpose.
 
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Johnny75 said:
I can only think you don't understand football or you like comparing meaningless stats for the sake of it.

Stats have to have a purpose and if your saying X player creates chances and it's not his fault those players don't convert those chances you are missing the point of football entirely.

And showing how useless the stat is in isolation.
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So you don't think there is any correlation between Adama (and most of the team) under performing his xA and the rest of the team under performing xG?
 
Using those stats in isolation, no I don't.

Football has too many variables to purely use those stats. One of the guys who came up with xG even said as much and said xG was useless after 20 games and real stats should be used instead (number of goals/ assists) as predictors.

if a team is creating chances for the wrong players to finish then the flaw is somewhere else. It could be tactics, player selection from the manager or bad decision making from the assister. But you can't know that just from those metrics. That's where TT's eyes come in!
 
Johnny75 said:
You're eyes don't prove why he's had a shit season is the point.

Andy's 'blame it on others' not the stats is just the lack of understanding of how to use stats in football effectively and for a purpose.
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No, I understand the point. I was just suggesting that you can throw as many stats around as you like, but you are only kidding yourself if you try to use those to show he's been good. Equally he's not the biggest reason we've been poor in games
 
Five or six of the main first team squad have performed poorly in comparison to last season. Patricio, Coady, Dendonker, Moutinho , Traore , Neves, Boly are all down on last season. Only Neto and Saiss have been about the same for me. Jonny Otto has been out for long periods, as has Raul and Podence. WIllian Jose De Silva just has not performed and then you have the newcomers who you cannot compare like for like on in Fabio and Nelson Semedo. I wonder if Nuno had encouraged a larger squad if some of those players would have stepped up performances. Could there be some complacency because of lack of competition? Rui Neves Coady are nailed on starters for instance. For whatever reason and I think there are many , it has not been a joyful watch this season , a season when all of us as fans are watching the same pictures . Even then we can have very different view points as shown on this forum.
 
Johnny75 said:
No, I understand the point. I was just suggesting that you can throw as many stats around as you like, but you are only kidding yourself if you try to use those to show he's been good. Equally he's not the biggest reason we've been poor in games
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Whether you think he's been good or not is up to you.

What I'm trying to show is that he creates opportunities at a rate higher than anyone else bar Neto.

Take FKs out the equation and he's top
 
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So he should, who else is going to do it? We play five defenders and two defensive midfielders most of the time.
 
Deutsch Wolf said:
At our best in the last three seasons we don't press regularly but we did concentrate on winning the ball in the right areas - ie where we could pinch it and we're immediately in a dangerous position. Jota was great at it.

Seems to have gone out of the window this season (along with defending set pieces, marking properly, etc etc) but we were a bit better at it yesterday. A couple of times we picked Leicester off in their own half, even Adama did it once!

Any analysis thread where you include Newcastle has you scratching your head as to how they aren't sat bottom of the league on about 4 points.
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We used to win it earlier at least 3 or 4 times every game.
This year I would be hard pressed to remember 1
 
Form since the nadir that was Albion at home (and even as shambolic in parts as that was, we still should have been in a position at HT where the game was won):

P16 W6 D5 L5 (1.44 PPG, equates to around 54-55 points over a season, enough for 8th in 2018/19 and 9th in 2019/20).

Given that our best player has played 0 of those games and we've also latterly lacked our next best attacker - plus everything else that has happened to Boly, Neves, Moutinho, Jonny and Podence in that time, while our new striker that we signed to fix an issue has turned out to be absolutely dogshit - that looks alright to me. We'd got ourselves in a bit of a tangle but we've sorted it out, while we can all acknowledge that there are issues to solve over the summer.

Basically without Raul I reckon we're a mid-table team. Sometimes we'll look quite good and sometimes we'll look awful.
 
My issue has never really been results based. It’s been that we were largely a dull watch.

We’re still a bit hit and miss in that regard but the last few games has given me a bit of optimism that we might be heading in the right direction. Which is all I ever asked for back in January.
 
I cba to do it myself but I wonder how many of those 13 were scored without Boly in the team.
 
You can't have a system that's wholely reliant on one individual, that's just someone papering over the cracks. Most teams use a hybrid of man marking and zonal marking at set pieces now but Wolves version of it is awful for the most part and never seems to be tweaked to match a particular opponent or the way things unfold through a game.

The players employed as blockers against opponents biggest threats almost universally fail in their aims. They don't even contemplate actually tracking the run to a point of being able to compete for the ball, if they're brushed aside then they just stand stranded and watch it unfold. The more aerially capable are left free to try and defend the zones carrying the biggest threat but the right ball can render them useless once the above scenario let's someone get a free run on them.

If I were setting up for set pieces against Wolves then I'd target back post every time, send all the big lads out there and they'll get all the freedom in the world to attack it. Could just run the same play every opportunity and Wolves would never do anything to stop it.

Just need to change a little between who is responsible for men/zones. Pick up a few of the biggest threats man for man so at least they'll be challenged even if the ball in is on the money.
 
We had a huge issue today in that there's next to no height in the team. Coady, Neves and Hoever are barely 6', Kilman is big but you couldn't get the Express & Star under his feet when he jumps, then it's kids or pygmies. Whereas they have three big lugs trundling forward every time, plus Bissouma and Welbeck in there. Groß has excellent delivery for the most part and this all equals trouble.

Not sure what we can do about that. Other than get them wearing Bay City Rollers football boots.

That doesn't defend us frequently looking ropey off set pieces but we were never equipped to deal with it in this specific game.
 
Deutsch Wolf said:
We had a huge issue today in that there's next to no height in the team. Coady, Neves and Hoever are barely 6', Kilman is big but you couldn't get the Express & Star under his feet when he jumps, then it's kids or pygmies. Whereas they have three big lugs trundling forward every time, plus Bissouma and Welbeck in there. Groß has excellent delivery for the most part and this all equals trouble.

Not sure what we can do about that. Other than get them wearing Bay City Rollers football boots.

That doesn't defend us frequently looking ropey off set pieces but we were never equipped to deal with it in this specific game.
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Despite all that, and you're right, putting Neves on Dunk and MGW on Burn was crazy, Kilman and Coady would surely be physically more likely to stop them than those two, particularly compared to MGW.

I can't quite trust my memory, was it Neves that was on Dunk when he scored away from home?
 
It was so obvious I even called it in the pre match thread. Mind you, I also said we'd get pumped
 
Fabio Silva Goals and Assists over 90 minutes is currently 0.49.

Raul G&A over 90 minutes is 0.44

I'm absolutely not saying Fabio is better than Raul! But I think it does show the effect Fabio is having
 
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