REFERENDUM RESULTS AND DISCUSSION THREAD

[thehistorymakers]

Herein lies the key issue with capitalism as we know it: Employees need employers more than employers need employees. IE, it's much easier to find new workers than new jobs.

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Only if you flood your country with cheap labour.

 

[Trips]

Perhaps they should have said that we contribute £9Billion more to the EU than we receive back. The truth is out there and the bus advert was instantly ridiculed for what is was - another cheap sound bite in an awful campaign. It gives the remainers something to cling onto though. The Corporates are upset that they risk losing their ready supply of cheap labour and to be honest fuck em.

Wasn't just the bus advert was it (and that alone was at least 2 lies)

What about leaves promise of remaining in the single market?

What about immigration going down, when David Davis himself last night said there will be times when immigration will go up?

Leaves campaign was based on outright lies that they knew wouldn't or couldn't happen.

 

[Alan]

Only if you flood your country with cheap labour.

As if cheap labor just exists and isn't created by the market?

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[Papper]

As if cheap labor just exists and isn't created by the market?

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Alan, have a watch of this.

 

[ProgWolf]

I must have missed that loud chorus of 'bollocks' from you all then.

So Boris tells the world the UK can stay in the single market as a member of the Leave campaign but you choose to believe the leader of the Remain campaign and actively vote out of the single market? You have actively voted to make the UK worse off?

I believed Cameron and voted that way. You believed Cameron and voted to make the UK a worse trading proposition. Yep, that's as stupid as you get. And had no plan on what to do next. Good job you mouth breathers can do that autonomously or you'd all be fucked.

I'm sure we could all dig up our favourite 'Experts' so how about Mervyn King, the former Governor of The Bank Of England and Cross-Bench Peer ?

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...ng-britain-should-be-more-upbeat-about-brexit

He doesn't think it will be a bed of roses when we Leave, but he doesn't seem to see a problem for the UK coming out of the Single Market and sees plenty of opportunities for the UK outside of the EU.

He also thinks we should leave the Customs Union and he welcomes the fall in the pound.

But he never saw the 2008/2009 recession coming. Then again we can all pick and choose our 'Experts' can't we ?

Anyway he went to The Wolverhampton Grammar School so he must have some credibility ?

 

[Johnny75]

Doesn't change the fact you voted for a liar does it?

Also doesn't change the fact you have absolutely no clue what you're doing but it must be better out...just, well....because.

 

[Wilf Wolf]

Cameron said we couldn't leave and remain in the Single Market but Out campaigners said he was lying and gave assurances we could because the EU export more to us than we do to them. Gove's experts' quote summed it up - if Remain said something Out didn't like they simply ignored it or claimed (lied!) that it was scaremongering.
It's still going on - any suggestion that the negotiations won't be a piece of cake are never addressed, everything will be fine, and if it isn't no deal is better than remaining. If you're all so sure why not put it to see if the will of the people agrees when they actually know what they're voting for?

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

It's still going on - any suggestion that the negotiations won't be a piece of cake are never addressed, everything will be fine, and if it isn't no deal is better than remaining.

To the point that today some moron MPs have walked out of a Select Committee meeting because the report was 'too gloomy'. It's a good job they stopped making The Thick of It because you cannot parody this shit. The political equivalent of:

 

[Dublin Drummer Wolf]

No Deal and No Plan is still better than the heap of sh*t you support.

Surely you don't actually believe that do you?

I get that you are looking to score points in an online argument, but deep down, when you think about what Britain will be like in 5 years, do you honestly believe that a hard Brexit without an open, well thought out plan will be good for the U.K?
Why do you think that all those countries who are part of a trading bloc will not look at Britain and think how they can start shafting you up the arse, because Britain needs them more than they need Britain (unless you are happy to start importing wine from Romania)

Genuine question.

 

[Alan]

MEP Esteban Gonzalez Pons has a speech going around on the web right now that nails the issue for me.

 

[ProgWolf]

Surely you don't actually believe that do you?

I get that you are looking to score points in an online argument, but deep down, when you think about what Britain will be like in 5 years, do you honestly believe that a hard Brexit without an open, well thought out plan will be good for the U.K?
Why do you think that all those countries who are part of a trading bloc will not look at Britain and think how they can start shafting you up the arse, because Britain needs them more than they need Britain (unless you are happy to start importing wine from Romania)

Genuine question.

The problem with this argument is that either side can give reasons to the other side why they are right.
But that's all they are, opinions. How can anyone really know how things will turn out ?

Before the result of the Referendum, could anyone give any guarantees ?
Yes there were loads of promises and scaremongering and lies on both sides, just like in any General Election.
Now we just seem to be in the realms of tit for tat point scoring on what may or may not happen post Brexit ?

For example, in 2016 our Trading deficit with the EU was around £ 80 Billion ?

Some Leavers will ask, why would the EU make life difficult for us given they amount of goods we buy from the EU.

Some Remainers will say the EU wouldn't miss £80 Billion, as it's mere pin prick on the Trillions of pounds of trade ?

So when we vote, are we voting on certainty or probability ?

Is it reasonable to assume that in 3 - 5 years, after lots of gesture politics, bullying, bullsh*t, oneupmanship, put-downs and some sensible negotiations, with the fifth biggest economy in the world, that we will have better control of our borders, more control over the numbers that comes in, and we are trading in a very similar way to the way we are trading now.

Why would Germany or France want to make it more difficult for us to buy their cars ?

Some on here seem to suggest that the EU will be a closed shop. That we wont be able to afford to buy any of their goods and that the UK will 'close down'.

To say that those EU countries will be 'shafting us up the arse' is the politics of the playground. In any event I cannot imagine a scenario how that could happen.

But, as I say, no-one can know for sure. Some say the EU is crumbling. Is that true ?

 

[Johnny75]

I can't fathom why anybody would vote to leave something when they know they have a very good chance of being worse off.

I can't prove we will be worse off and Leave voters will tell me that the EU are a busted flush and the UK is great so why wouldn't the rest of the world kneel at our feet like in the olde days of the empire...or something like that.

No point carrying this on as at the end of the day all Leavers talk about is controlling immigration now, conveniently forgetting we've always had control of our borders and could have halved immigration just by not letting non-eu folks in.

And 'no plan is better than what we have now' is beyond stupid.

 

[ProgWolf]

I can't fathom why anybody would vote to leave something when they know they have a very good chance of being worse off.

I can't prove we will be worse off and Leave voters will tell me that the EU are a busted flush and the UK is great so why wouldn't the rest of the world kneel at our feet like in the olde days of the empire...or something like that.

No point carrying this on as at the end of the day all Leavers talk about is controlling immigration now, conveniently forgetting we've always had control of our borders and could have halved immigration just by not letting non-eu folks in.

And 'no plan is better than what we have now' is beyond stupid.

When Theresa May said "No Deal" is better than a "Bad Deal", that was surely the gesture politics I mentioned earlier ?

Like all business deals, you never play all your cards early on. When you negotiate a price, you always start way lower than what you know you will end up with. Sometimes the deal on offer is so bad that you have to walk away from it.

Why cant we have a deal that both sides are happy with ? This is what happens every day in the business world ?

It seems like everyone starts off in child mode, the equivalent of throwing their dummy out of the pram or picking their ball up and going home.

Eventually they will surely realise they are adults and there are Economies and Jobs at stake and they will work out a way of saving face whilst trying not to appear to have given away too much.

As for the Single Market. Yes Cameron said by Leaving we couldn't be in it. Leavers said we can Leave and still be a part of it.

Some say we cannot have an individual trading agreement with Germany or France. Could that 'rule' be broken ?
We all know that the Business World is a law unto itself where people say one thing and do another.

I just don't see why Leaving the EU means Armageddon for the UK ?

 

[ProgWolf]

MEP Esteban Gonzalez Pons has a speech going around on the web right now that nails the issue for me.

What are his plans to deal with the 42% Youth Unemployment in Spain ?

 

[MARKakaJIM]

Surely this trade deficit works against the UK far more than Europe?

I've seen lots of leave voters arguing that the EU won't want to miss out on that £80bn but will it really make a great deal of difference to them individually? That figure has to be divided up into all the individual countries' pots before you get the sum that each member will be contemplating when it comes to the vote, I imagine half them will be looking at some piddly little figure they couldn't give a toss about and would rather make things difficult for the UK to deter other large net contributing countries from following suit, thus depriving them of incoming funds. In the case of somewhere like Germany, probably recipients the largest chunk of that £80bn I imagine, we're generally buying goods of very good quality, are we going to just abandon that trade because tariffs make it a bit more expensive or will the UK consumer still want that product at the increased price? I'm not sure where the extra cash from that tariff ends up but I assume someone somewhere in the EU would benefit at the UK's expense.

I think levels of trade will probably change little as a result of Brexit but the cost will obviously increase with tariffs implemented, most of that cost will probably end up passed onto the consumer so hardly a victory for the man on the street over big business, but even then the EU has it easier to replace any inflated UK goods by going to one of the other EU countries for some tariff free alternative, it doesn't matter where the UK looks for an alternative it won't be free trade unless we can make it here.

 

[Wilf Wolf]

The problem with this argument is that either side can give reasons to the other side why they are right.
But that's all they are, opinions. How can anyone really know how things will turn out ?

Before the result of the Referendum, could anyone give any guarantees ?
Yes there were loads of promises and scaremongering and lies on both sides, just like in any General Election.
Now we just seem to be in the realms of tit for tat point scoring on what may or may not happen post Brexit ?

For example, in 2016 our Trading deficit with the EU was around £ 80 Billion ?

Some Leavers will ask, why would the EU make life difficult for us given they amount of goods we buy from the EU.

Some Remainers will say the EU wouldn't miss £80 Billion, as it's mere pin prick on the Trillions of pounds of trade ?

So when we vote, are we voting on certainty or probability ?

Is it reasonable to assume that in 3 - 5 years, after lots of gesture politics, bullying, bullsh*t, oneupmanship, put-downs and some sensible negotiations, with the fifth biggest economy in the world, that we will have better control of our borders, more control over the numbers that comes in, and we are trading in a very similar way to the way we are trading now.

Why would Germany or France want to make it more difficult for us to buy their cars ?

Some on here seem to suggest that the EU will be a closed shop. That we wont be able to afford to buy any of their goods and that the UK will 'close down'.

To say that those EU countries will be 'shafting us up the arse' is the politics of the playground. In any event I cannot imagine a scenario how that could happen.

But, as I say, no-one can know for sure. Some say the EU is crumbling. Is that true ?

But you can look at scenarios and work out where they are most likely to lead. Take cars for example. Germany knows that if the parts that go into a Nissan will have 10% day under WTO rules and then the completed car has the same 10% that effectively puts a Nissan sold in Europe up by 20%. In light of this they might decide that losing the sale of German cars in the UK isn't such a big deal as they'll sell a lot more VWs and Audis within Europe if the competition costs 20% more.

The remaining 27 countries will also pick up exports to those countries that have trade deals with the EU as if there is no agreement we will no longer have a trade deal with these countries, but the rest of the EU will.

I think the likelihood of a deal depends on how much the big players, especially Germany, are prepared to take short term pain for long term gain. It's not just cars, they'll be looking at financial services in particular and if the are successful we won't be the fifth biggest economy in the world for long!

 

[ProgWolf]

But you can look at scenarios and work out where they are most likely to lead. Take cars for example. Germany knows that if the parts that go into a Nissan will have 10% day under WTO rules and then the completed car has the same 10% that effectively puts a Nissan sold in Europe up by 20%. In light of this they might decide that losing the sale of German cars in the UK isn't such a big deal as they'll sell a lot more VWs and Audis within Europe if the competition costs 20% more.

The remaining 27 countries will also pick up exports to those countries that have trade deals with the EU as if there is no agreement we will no longer have a trade deal with these countries, but the rest of the EU will.

I think the likelihood of a deal depends on how much the big players, especially Germany, are prepared to take short term pain for long term gain. It's not just cars, they'll be looking at financial services in particular and if the are successful we won't be the fifth biggest economy in the world for long!

I have a scenario, not sure how workable it would be or even if it's possible as it sounds too simplistic and probably naive.

Let's just assume we cant work out a deal with Germany for their cars, and we decide to dramatically reduce the amount of German cars coming into the UK. To fill the 'gap', as a country we then start buying more Japanese cars, with no Tariffs.

Could this happen ? Anyone who could afford it could still import an Audi with Tariffs, so they would still have that choice.

Would we build more Japanese Car Plants in the UK, creating thousands of jobs ?

 

[MARKakaJIM]

You'd have to agree a free trade deal with Japan first, can't imagine they're buying much off us to make that worthwhile for them.

 

[The Saturday Boy]

I have a scenario, not sure how workable it would be or even if it's possible as it sounds too simplistic and probably naive.

Let's just assume we cant work out a deal with Germany for their cars, and we decide to dramatically reduce the amount of German cars coming into the UK. To fill the 'gap', as a country we then start buying more Japanese cars, with no Tariffs.

Could this happen ? Anyone who could afford it could still import an Audi with Tariffs, so they would still have that choice.

Would we build more Japanese Car Plants in the UK, creating thousands of jobs ?

Why would the Japanese want to invest in new plant in the UK for the UK market and face export tariffs to the EU? Better just to build a new plant in the EU for a much bigger market without tariffs.

 

[Trips]

The thing with this utopia of new trade deals around the world is there is a reason why we already don't sell much to other countries, but something like 44% of our exports go to the EU. It's location. The likes of Australia, New Zealand, Japan, China etc aren't going to all of a sudden going to start buying more and more things from us, just because we can trade on our own. Plus other countries actually benefit from the EU being a trading bloc, and most other countries are involved in some sort of trading bloc also.