REFERENDUM RESULTS AND DISCUSSION THREAD

[visage]

I dunno on your second point - it was a reasonably true democracy process, but the lies were much more front and centre than any attempt to debunk them. The leave campaign was a disgrace, but the Remain campaign was also a spectacular failure, idealogically and also at the ballot box. Remain supporters have to live with a result that they don't like, but to pretend it was all the fault of the Leave campaign would be completely disingenuous. Lots of room for pointing fingers at both Cameron and Corbyn for a very weak effort.

I would however agree on possibly being time to focus on how to deliver. My issue with that (and this is where those in power from the Leave campaign are really being found wanting at the moment) is all we are hearing is "it will be a hard Brexit". As of itself, that is fine as a concept, but there is no meat on those bones. Exactly how are Johnson and Co. planning on negotiating a hard exit that still allows free trade? If they are not, how are they planning on compensating companies who will suddenly be profoundly uncompetitive in a large part of their markets? Will some of the incoming import duty be diverted to cushion the blow? Will some of the EU savings that were mentioned in the campaign be pushed in that direction? Or will they fulfill on their bus promise to divert a huge amount of money to the NHS?

On the immigration front then. If borders are to become hard, will we at least get certainty rather than conjecture about what is going to be done with the border in Ireland? Secondly, what will be the limit on immigration, and will it apply across the board or will it contain exceptions for the well-trained immigrant that has skills in areas we need? If there are no exceptions, will some of the NHS extra money promised be devoted to training our own doctors (and probably paying them more to retain them and get rid of the nonsense contracts causing the current row) to fill the gap we will have without immigration? What do the government plan to do about immigrants already in this country? Will their status be re-assessed or will they have indefinite licence to stay as they arrived before a certain date?

In return, what position will be negotiated on behalf of the large ex-pat community that the UK has within Europe? What will be done to defend against tit-for-tat action being taken by our ex-partners to disadvantage, or in a worst case scenario, re-patriate those people?

What will be done to ensure that the centre of European financial markets remains in London?

What will be done about pan-European defence projects such as Eurofighter and its successors? Or indeed pan-European business treaties such as those to build Airbus?

Finally, can we please have a list of countries with whom we plan to try and negotiate free trade to replace the European trade block, preferably with some form of comment from those countries about how likely such a deal is, and at what price?

I fear the answer to your questions could be paraphrased as 'YOU LOST, GET OVER IT, WE'RE MAKING BRITAIN GREAT AGAIN'....

 

[Penk Wolf]

The times have obtained a copy of the cabinet briefing paper on the effects of hard brexit. It aint pretty:

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/785593955203284992

The government trying to predict the next 15 years :ursofunny: They can't even predict the next 3 months :facepalm:

 

[visage]

Its not from the government, its from the Treasury.

 

[Penk Wolf]

Its not from the government, its from the Treasury.

Whoever.

 

[nimrod]

The government trying to predict the next 15 years :ursofunny: They can't even predict the next 3 months :facepalm:

i hope that's tongue in cheek Penk because otherwise it's a pretty nonsensical point. for the projects i work on, if you want investment, you have to financially model them over 20 years. running the country is even more serious.

you might or might not agree with a government's forecasting assumptions, but it's a fundamental part of determining budgets and policies.

 

[Johnny75]

I dunno on your second point - it was a reasonably true democracy process, but the lies were much more front and centre than any attempt to debunk them. The leave campaign was a disgrace, but the Remain campaign was also a spectacular failure, idealogically and also at the ballot box. Remain supporters have to live with a result that they don't like, but to pretend it was all the fault of the Leave campaign would be completely disingenuous. Lots of room for pointing fingers at both Cameron and Corbyn for a very weak effort.

I would however agree on possibly being time to focus on how to deliver. My issue with that (and this is where those in power from the Leave campaign are really being found wanting at the moment) is all we are hearing is "it will be a hard Brexit". As of itself, that is fine as a concept, but there is no meat on those bones. Exactly how are Johnson and Co. planning on negotiating a hard exit that still allows free trade? If they are not, how are they planning on compensating companies who will suddenly be profoundly uncompetitive in a large part of their markets? Will some of the incoming import duty be diverted to cushion the blow? Will some of the EU savings that were mentioned in the campaign be pushed in that direction? Or will they fulfill on their bus promise to divert a huge amount of money to the NHS?

The Govt (Jeremy Hunt) have said that they are training more doctors (25% more) and are putting more into funding. And to stop the move of doctors to private or lucrative practises abroad they will make all doctors sign a 4 year contract or their fees for training will become repayable (October announcement). That seems more than fair to me. They haven't said where that money comes from though or who will pay for it (my bet is on a 2 tier NHS which is as unpalatable as it sounds)

On the immigration front then. If borders are to become hard, will we at least get certainty rather than conjecture about what is going to be done with the border in Ireland? Secondly, what will be the limit on immigration, and will it apply across the board or will it contain exceptions for the well-trained immigrant that has skills in areas we need? If there are no exceptions, will some of the NHS extra money promised be devoted to training our own doctors (and probably paying them more to retain them and get rid of the nonsense contracts causing the current row) to fill the gap we will have without immigration? What do the government plan to do about immigrants already in this country? Will their status be re-assessed or will they have indefinite licence to stay as they arrived before a certain date?

In return, what position will be negotiated on behalf of the large ex-pat community that the UK has within Europe? What will be done to defend against tit-for-tat action being taken by our ex-partners to disadvantage, or in a worst case scenario, re-patriate those people?

Surely that works both ways and the EU would have far more to lose as it is against one of its central tenets?

What will be done to ensure that the centre of European financial markets remains in London?

What will be done about pan-European defence projects such as Eurofighter and its successors? Or indeed pan-European business treaties such as those to build Airbus?

The EU and Philip Hammond have stated that all Euro grant and co-funded projects will be honoured up to 2020 and beyond by the Govt. underwriting any grants/ funding from the EU if negotiations on the funding fail (I don't think they will and I think collaboration will continue).

Finally, can we please have a list of countries with whom we plan to try and negotiate free trade to replace the European trade block, preferably with some form of comment from those countries about how likely such a deal is, and at what price?

All very fair questions that many on the Remain side have sought answers to and got Vis's answer instead. There are some bits that have been answered albeit from other departments and not the Brexit office/ campaigners.

I agree with you in that this is time for a plan, they have a timescale (till March) and so far we have the square root of fuck all in ideas from the Brexit side. What. A. Shock.

 

[thehistorymakers]

I fear the answer to your questions could be paraphrased as 'YOU LOST, GET OVER IT, WE'RE MAKING BRITAIN GREAT AGAIN'....

Even better, EUROPEAN x#$@ SUCKERS LOST SO GET USED TO IT AND STOP RUNNING YOUR COUNTRY DOWN.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Perhaps you would like to answer the questions rather than come up with that sort of stuff?

Another one - as the Bank of England has complete control on the setting of interest rates, what is the Leave campaign's plan to get the pound back to, or at least approaching, pre-referendum levels? How long do they anticipate such a recovery would take?

 

[Johnny75]

i hope that's tongue in cheek Penk because otherwise it's a pretty nonsensical point. for the projects i work on, if you want investment, you have to financially model them over 20 years. running the country is even more serious.

you might or might not agree with a government's forecasting assumptions, but it's a fundamental part of determining budgets and policies.

Most people accept that any Chancellors budget over 3 years is just finger in the air stuff though. It's been that way as far back as I remember and I'm not saying yours isn't important over the life of the project but that politicians budgets are usually pie in the sky.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

The problem with most Chancellors is that you set policy over the life of a parliament really. Not a lot of point having a load of good shit happening for the opposition to lap up credit for two years after you lose an election.

 

[Penk Wolf]

i hope that's tongue in cheek Penk because otherwise it's a pretty nonsensical point. for the projects i work on, if you want investment, you have to financially model them over 20 years. running the country is even more serious.

you might or might not agree with a government's forecasting assumptions, but it's a fundamental part of determining budgets and policies.

And how often do you get those predictions right? And if you do, let me know where to put my money and what return I'll get in 20 years time.

 

[nimrod]

Most people accept that any Chancellors budget over 3 years is just finger in the air stuff though. It's been that way as far back as I remember and I'm not saying yours isn't important over the life of the project but that politicians budgets are usually pie in the sky.

the point isn't whether you believe the forecasts are pie in the sky or not (and i'm sure they will run a huge number of scenarios in respect of uncertainties), it's that it would be a derogation of Gvt and Treasury's duties if they didn't run the forecasts and use them in determining what the country can or can't afford, which would then be used to determine/influence policy.

 

[nimrod]

And how often do you get those predictions right? And if you do, let me know where to put my money and what return I'll get in 20 years time.

it's not about the need to get predictions right is it, it's about scenario & probability analysis to support investment decisions. it's what investors understand, expect and use to make their investment decisions on and, as importantly, determine mitigation strategies.

i guess i could walk in with a 3 month plan and tell them it's a bit hard to predict beyond that, but i doubt it will get me, or anyone else, very far.

if you really want to understand more, let me know, and i'll send you my day rates.

 

[arklowolf]

Perhaps you would like to answer the questions rather than come up with that sort of stuff?

Another one - as the Bank of England has complete control on the setting of interest rates, what is the Leave campaign's plan to get the pound back to, or at least approaching, pre-referendum levels? How long do they anticipate such a recovery would take?

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...a-welcome-change-says-mervyn-king-brexit-vote

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Some interesting points raised there by Mervyn King. Yes, a weaker currency may generate exports as our goods may appear cheaper. However, that depends on having the goods to export. I DO think that there will need to be a considerable re-balancing of the trade gap. My concern is how it will occur.

Also, if your pound buys you less, and imports from the EU rise in price because of import duties, what will be done to prevent wage inflation having an impact on overall inflation levels? Wage inflation will have to happen or more households will end up struggling to make ends meet.

 

[arklowolf]

Untouched, the rebalancing of the trade gap between the UK and Europe would occur naturally, however as it may prove detrimental to one set of citizens it will be beneficial to the other.
For one 'side' to interfere in an unbalanced way, to give themselves an advantage would only earn reprisals from the other 'side' to maintain a level playing field.
Common sense will prevail to both economies mutual benefit.
It will just be a question of how well each workforce performs that decides on that economies performance.
I'd back UK workers against most other European countries.
Industry is one area that the UK government will need to invest heavily in and assist in. Manufacturing, labour and materials drive economies.

 

[Penk Wolf]

Some interesting points raised there by Mervyn King. Yes, a weaker currency may generate exports as our goods may appear cheaper. However, that depends on having the goods to export. I DO think that there will need to be a considerable re-balancing of the trade gap. My concern is how it will occur.

Also, if your pound buys you less, and imports from the EU rise in price because of import duties, what will be done to prevent wage inflation having an impact on overall inflation levels? Wage inflation will have to happen or more households will end up struggling to make ends meet.

The pound has been devaluing for a long time. £1 = $2 about 7 years ago. Has Brexit accelerated what was going to happen anyway? Is the pound over valued?

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Our economy is financial services driven. There isn't really that much manufacturing left. It would have to be a huge investment project to regenerate that sort of level. Doable, I guess, if there was the appetite to do so.

 

[visage]

And even if you did, it will take a generation to undo the damage that Queen Bitch started in the 80s.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

The pound has been devaluing for a long time. £1 = $2 about 7 years ago. Has Brexit accelerated what was going to happen anyway? Is the pound over valued?

No on your last two points. It has devalued over a long period but a sudden drop of 14% on Brexit is not merely an acceleration of an underlying issue. It is a step change.