REFERENDUM RESULTS AND DISCUSSION THREAD

[arklowolf]

Dublin is looking more likely at the moment. Lots of American companies creating jobs here at the moment. We've already proven to be a good hub for tech companies and we're seeing a lot of Pharma and Finance moving here from overseas.[/QUOTE
Garbage.
I can name at least four that have moved out in recent years.
Besides which you'd struggle to run anything here with the third world standard communications systems that we currently 'enjoy'.
Fucking hopeless shower of merkels puppets running the show. Corrupt to their bones.

 

[Deleted Cyber]

Any particular countries?

Japan would probably jump at a free trade agreement. After all we send less to them than they send to us- as we do with the rest of the EU hence our trade gap?. And the japanese goods would be cheaper to the consumer here (or at the same price but with a bigger margin for the japanese seller). However, for every million of japanese imports import duty is charged to the tune of £200k by the government. Say Japan exports £5bn to us annually. That is a billion in tax revenue gone. And those are finger in the sky figures, and I would imagine Japan actually sends us a HELL of a lot more than that.

USA - as explained earlier. Obama has said no. Clinton has said no. Trump has said yes. Trump is second favourite in a two-horse race. Again, if that happened it would actually benefit them more than us as we are gross importers. And again, a shedload of tax revenue gone. But they seem to say yes now?

As you say we do have a better economy than much of the world. However, most of our economy is based on financial services these days. We are THE key banking area in Europe. We are THE main stock exchange in Europe. If that all shifts to Frankfurt for the banks, and to Paris for the Bourse we have a serious problem. We are not a manufacturing economy and haven't been for decades.

If France and Germany take the financials we become the sick man of Europe, and lo and behold, the EU hardball will have worked. WTF?HIGHLY UNLIKELY

As the economy contracts due to the above, the pound will then collapse further and it will NEVER recover. Money men or otherwise. We will stabilise as by far a much weaker economy.

But hey, we will be able to tell Johnny Foreigner to sod off, though Again you point the accusing xenophobe finger. Is that just your standard closing response to any brexit discussion now? .

here are a starting 11 and we havent left yet and wont do for at least 30 months. http://heatst.com/world/11-countries-gearing-up-to-strike-trade-deals-with-britain/ why limit trade to 502 million in the EU when there are more than 2.2 billion potential customers globally Here we go Britain, back in to the global market , says one poster and I agree. In the mean time there is a planning phase. If you look at the principles of good effective project management the longest phase is the planning phase.The shock of the win caught everyone by surprise. The absence of a real plan or even a framework one was poor. Piss poor. But it was also arrogance as of 600 plus MPs 150 thought or supported Brexit. The rest thought remain was a done deal. But now , as I say we are in a planning phase. That means for the next 6 months we will be detailing or outlining various options that we as a country want to negotiate and what we deem as acceptable. The EU will be doing similar but behind the scenes. Then once article 50 is triggered the real negotiations start. But you know all this. Everyone on here does. Its just more fun to keep poke poke poking with the same old " where was the plan?" rhetoric or " its the xenophobe racists what done it". Much earlier in the thread you asked for my ideas and I gave them. They still stand. The world has not come to end and nor will it.There is just a bit of work to be done to prepare the ground effectively. One positive we can probably agree on is that is probably the last referendum we get in our lifetimes ! No government would be so stupid as to do something like this again.

 

[leedswolf]

There's been 2 (referendums) in my lifetime.

 

[Deleted Cyber]

There's been 2 (referendums) in my lifetime.

hopefully no 3rd then.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

I guarantee you are right for now. Article 50 is irreversible when done. Unless a party is elected on the preface of calling a referendum about being asked back in.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Your point on the trade gap I just don't think is particularly relevant for the EU. They won't give us free trade if France or Germany exercise their veto. And they will.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Why is it highly unlikely that the financials move? Frankfurt is the second largest financial centre. Paris is the second largest stock market. And the result you cheer to the heavens just made London a far less appealing alternative to the big banks.

And I will keep jumping back to the xenophobic thing until I see some form of ANYTHING resembling policy other than kick immigrants from leave. But of course that is the fault of remain.

Still bitter. Still angry. Always will be.

 

[Penk Wolf]

I don't understand how you can be angry about a result when you were unsure which way to vote about three weeks prior to the vote.

The reason that you wanted to vote out must still apply?

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

I'm angry because I weighed the options during the campaign. At the start of which I was hopeful. Then I spent three weeks utterly despairing at the abysmal leave campaign. Since then I have see nothing from anyone associated with leave to even slightly convince me of any benefit whatsoever to giving up a lot of clear benefits which I and my kids have been forced to do. So yes. Still fucking angry. Always will be.

 

[Penk Wolf]

There wasn't that much quality information to make an informed decision though. This forum was probably the best place which says it all about both campaigns.

Although I didn't vote, had it been law I probably would have voted leave, however, with hindsight and knowing what we've learn't since, I'd now vote stay.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

There is no doubt that the lack of information from both sides was a low point. If you go back to the timing of my original post I was looking forward to a campaign free from party politics and the chance to make an informed decision.

We had a leave campaign broadly trumpeted by Nigel Farage (although he was not the leader) which basically pushed the little Englander aspect, while Boris drove round in a bus covered in lies. We then had remain keeping itself to itself assuming they would win anyway, and that was a huge backfire. I became more angry at one non campaign and one profoundly negative and untruthful campaign as it went on. When the electorate bought the leave campaign I was further angered at the feeling that the country has been duped into something we will regret for generations.

 

[Penk Wolf]

Your last sent is a very fair comment.

I have nothing to base this on and although I wasn't expecting the pound slide to be so hard, I still think long term we will be stronger. I really can't see big business around Europe allowing their MPs to act in a selfish manner but in a manner that protects business and that will be to compromise. Same with immigration, we need them and they need us, so I really can't see it been that difficult to get around.

I may be wrong, but until I know for sure, I won't be worrying about it too much.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

The thing I see is we have a trade gap with Europe in a free trade situation. So if import duties go on, Europe will gain more import duties to the exchequer than we will. If you want to create a free trade area, ideally you want a trade gap with that country as then there is a benefit. If you want a duty paid area, you don't want a trade deficit ideally with your trade partner. Sure business will try to influence it, but I am solidly convinced that if we insist on the hard line on borders and immigration, there simply won't be any form of trade deal.

 

[nimrod]

The thing I see is we have a trade gap with Europe in a free trade situation. So if import duties go on, Europe will gain more import duties to the exchequer than we will. If you want to create a free trade area, ideally you want a trade gap with that country as then there is a benefit. If you want a duty paid area, you don't want a trade deficit ideally with your trade partner. Sure business will try to influence it, but I am solidly convinced that if we insist on the hard line on borders and immigration, there simply won't be any form of trade deal.

you may be right Pad, but the die is cast, we're in a pre-negotiation position and nobody knows what will actually happen. it's fair to point out possible positives and negatives but isn't it more constructive to focus on the government process to deliver (praise or criticise as appropriate) rather than jump to what you perceive will be the end result?

as an example, in the early days of the hinkley negotiation with EDF (boring, i know), the talk was that we'd end up with a tariff of c £130/mwh I think. the FT even reported £160+/mwh. it ended up at £92.50/mwh. you just don't know how negotiation drivers may change or how future events may impact things. (OK, the project cost is probably using cheap chinese steel, but that's another matter).

the lies, deceit and bogus arguments - that's something that a truer democracy should have been able to handle better than simply rewarding the liars.

 

[Sniffer]

you may be right Pad, but the die is cast, we're in a pre-negotiation position and nobody knows what will actually happen. it's fair to point out possible positives and negatives but isn't it more constructive to focus on the government process to deliver (praise or criticise as appropriate) rather than jump to what you perceive will be the end result?

as an example, in the early days of the hinkley negotiation with EDF (boring, i know), the talk was that we'd end up with a tariff of c £130/mwh I think. the FT even reported £160+/mwh. it ended up at £92.50/mwh. you just don't know how negotiation drivers may change or how future events may impact things. (OK, the project cost is probably using cheap chinese steel, but that's another matter).

the lies, deceit and bogus arguments - that's something that a truer democracy should have been able to handle better than simply rewarding the liars.

Wasn't it the EU that forced the price down to the £92.50 after the UK government agreed a higher price that was subject to possible legal action regarding state aid?

 

[Penk Wolf]

Not a huge barometer, but we sell two system that are compulsory on a few of the major contractors sites and the systems are ordered when a new construction jobs are starting. Our sales are:

Product 1:

May - 11
June - 15
July - 15
Aug - 29
Sept - 37

Product 2:

May - 28
June - 46
July - 41
Aug - 49
Sept - 76

 

[nimrod]

Wasn't it the EU that forced the price down to the £92.50 after the UK government agreed a higher price that was subject to possible legal action regarding state aid?

the EU improved the deal for the UK but i can't remember if an element was specifically on the tariff level (i should remember as i posted the article, but my memory isn't as good as it was). there are loads of elements to the state aid assessment. it may have been that EDF have to make a repayment if they make "super-profits" which isn't specifically tariff linked.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

I dunno on your second point - it was a reasonably true democracy process, but the lies were much more front and centre than any attempt to debunk them. The leave campaign was a disgrace, but the Remain campaign was also a spectacular failure, idealogically and also at the ballot box. Remain supporters have to live with a result that they don't like, but to pretend it was all the fault of the Leave campaign would be completely disingenuous. Lots of room for pointing fingers at both Cameron and Corbyn for a very weak effort.

I would however agree on possibly being time to focus on how to deliver. My issue with that (and this is where those in power from the Leave campaign are really being found wanting at the moment) is all we are hearing is "it will be a hard Brexit". As of itself, that is fine as a concept, but there is no meat on those bones. Exactly how are Johnson and Co. planning on negotiating a hard exit that still allows free trade? If they are not, how are they planning on compensating companies who will suddenly be profoundly uncompetitive in a large part of their markets? Will some of the incoming import duty be diverted to cushion the blow? Will some of the EU savings that were mentioned in the campaign be pushed in that direction? Or will they fulfill on their bus promise to divert a huge amount of money to the NHS?

On the immigration front then. If borders are to become hard, will we at least get certainty rather than conjecture about what is going to be done with the border in Ireland? Secondly, what will be the limit on immigration, and will it apply across the board or will it contain exceptions for the well-trained immigrant that has skills in areas we need? If there are no exceptions, will some of the NHS extra money promised be devoted to training our own doctors (and probably paying them more to retain them and get rid of the nonsense contracts causing the current row) to fill the gap we will have without immigration? What do the government plan to do about immigrants already in this country? Will their status be re-assessed or will they have indefinite licence to stay as they arrived before a certain date?

In return, what position will be negotiated on behalf of the large ex-pat community that the UK has within Europe? What will be done to defend against tit-for-tat action being taken by our ex-partners to disadvantage, or in a worst case scenario, re-patriate those people?

What will be done to ensure that the centre of European financial markets remains in London?

What will be done about pan-European defence projects such as Eurofighter and its successors? Or indeed pan-European business treaties such as those to build Airbus?

Finally, can we please have a list of countries with whom we plan to try and negotiate free trade to replace the European trade block, preferably with some form of comment from those countries about how likely such a deal is, and at what price?

 

[visage]

The times have obtained a copy of the cabinet briefing paper on the effects of hard brexit. It aint pretty:

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/785593955203284992

 

[Del Woppio]

All questions that should have had talk time prior to the referendum. And questions that a majority of the 52 won't have given a second thought to. It's the gamble on a wing and a prayer that's angered me the most.