Premier League: Relegation Race

[PuntsWolf]

Why do you have such hatred for a metric?

I have no issue with xG, but in isolation it’s pointless. Like yesterday.

As a pure guess the majority of our xG came from the Coady and Saiss miss and then again the next Coady miss. Two set pieces. This can make it look like we “deserved to win” but in reality we created absolutely nothing in open play.

 

[AndyWolves]

I think it states the obvious and counts for nothing. I don't need a stat to see that Coady and Saiss should both score yesterday, they didn't so our 2-1 XG win counts for nothing. I also think some use it to try prove points which are irrelvant. If Brighton could finish they'd be higher in the league, they can't so they aren't. Bad teams concede soft goals and miss good chances, always have, always will.

It's not meant to count for anything though, it's there to illuminate quality of chances.

I'm not sure why some people sarcastically say that points should be awarded on xG. xG is simply another metric, like corner count or passing accuracy.

 

[Johnny75]

It does help analysts when coupled with video of the chances themselves as you can see where you could defend better or how the opposition were exploited.

As a stat on its own it isn’t great and the creator even says that it’s only useful until halfway through the season when avg goals and avg chances per game are a better metric.

 

[Johnny75]

It's not meant to count for anything though, it's there to illuminate quality of chances.

I'm not sure why some people sarcastically say that points should be awarded on xG. xG is simply another metric, like corner count or passing accuracy.

And you illuminate why taken in isolation they are nonsense.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

This is genuinely like a Conference North game. Absolutely horrible football from both teams.

 

[AndyWolves]

I have no issue with xG, but in isolation it’s pointless. Like yesterday.

As a pure guess the majority of our xG came from the Coady and Saiss miss and then again the next Coady miss. Two set pieces. This can make it look like we “deserved to win” but in reality we created absolutely nothing in open play.

Depends how you use it, but to be fair 1/2 of villas xG came from a set piece too.

Do chances from set pieces not count?

Anyway, xG isn't there to describe pattern of play. Anyone using it in such a way is being disingenuous.

 

[AndyWolves]

And you illuminate why taken in isolation they are nonsense.

That's the point though, in isolation any metric is meaningless. But as metrics go it gives you a better idea than any other metric

 

[Tony Towner]

It's not meant to count for anything though, it's there to illuminate quality of chances.

I'm not sure why some people sarcastically say that points should be awarded on xG. xG is simply another metric, like corner count or passing accuracy.

Yet in most verdict threads including yesterday's you put the XG score up so it obviously means something to you, which is fine each to their own. For me the quality of chances are evident from watching the game.

 

[PuntsWolf]

Depends how you use it, but to be fair 1/2 of villas xG came from a set piece too.

Do chances from set pieces not count?

Anyway, xG isn't there to describe pattern of play. Anyone using it in such a way is being disingenuous.

Of course they count. But people like to use metrics to prove we deserved to win such as possession, shots, corners, xG, whatever.

When the simple eye test and understanding of the game says we created fuck all, our attacking play is awful etc. Regardless of what our stats say.

As TT says. Good teams score more than they “should” and concede less than they “should”.

Their players are better than the average in those metrics and the metric is based on averages.

 

[Tredman]

This is genuinely like a Conference North game. Absolutely horrible football from both teams.

It’s garbage, it’s not even mildly interesting.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

I think we should have won. They had a pot shot from range (which I think Rui saves if it's lower) and two set pieces. We had one breakaway and two set pieces, but they were easier chances, and they barely had a kick second half.

Not to defend how we are currently playing, it isn't very good. But we should have had six points off Villa this season, not one.

 

[AndyWolves]

Yet in most verdict threads including yesterday's you put the XG score up so it obviously means something to you, which is fine each to their own. For me the quality of chances are evident from watching the game.

I find xG a very interesting stat, that's it.

If you don't like it just scroll on by

 

[PuntsWolf]

I think we should have won. They had a pot shot from range (which I think Rui saves if it's lower) and two set pieces. We had one breakaway and two set pieces, but they were easier chances, and they barely had a kick second half.

Not to defend how we are currently playing, it isn't very good. But we should have had six points off Villa this season, not one.

The home game was probably in our top 3 performances this year.

Nicking games from set pieces isn’t sustainable though and it’s the sort of performances MM, Pulis, Allardyce get criticised for.

 

[AndyWolves]

I think we should have won. They had a pot shot from range (which I think Rui saves if it's lower) and two set pieces. We had one breakaway and two set pieces, but they were easier chances, and they barely had a kick second half.

Not to defend how we are currently playing, it isn't very good. But we should have had six points off Villa this season, not one.

I think we've said it in other places too how fine the fine margins are.

We aren't playing well, but a few more breaks here and there and we'd be having a vastly different season. Not that we deserve to mind.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

This is not breaking news but by Christ is Joelinton shite.

I wouldn't have him in a League One team.

 

[jd1981]

At least Albion have shown an ounce of ambition second half. Newcastle are just putrid and can fully understand how pissed off Newcastle fans are.

 

[Derby Wolf]

Imagine bringing on a striker at 0-0 in the 93rd minute in a relegation six pointer to waste the clock.

Bruce crowing about staying up despite the covid outbreak in their squad and the injuries to ASM and Gollum will be nauseating.

 

[jd1981]

That win for Fulham puts Newcastle and BHA in a real predicament. Probably keeps everyone up to Palace Nervous and probably keeps us and Leeds honest.

 

[big mean bunny]

Are we still doing this miraculous Fulham run? That's Fulham who have won 2 games all season, not one of those in over 2 months/12 games.

Are we labelling the Fulham run as miraculous? 5th on total form if what I have looked up has today and yesterday's results on it. Incredible job by them.

P. S I would like to point out this isn't meant as a dig at you Tony! Especially given my own dreadful takes I highlighted in the Neto signing thread.

 

[Parkins left foot]

This is not breaking news but by Christ is Joelinton shite.

I wouldn't have him in a League One team.

And you have a go at Jose though to a large extent I agree)

They paid £40 m for that - at least we haven't