Keir Starmer at it again..

[pr0sl0]

Fuck, you're right - there've been so many of them that even the NS has lost track. Probably some more in that list.

Mark that seat down as a definite loss then, no incumbency factor to help it over the edge.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Was it New Zealand where the Conservative Party almost got wiped out? One lives in hope.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Someone like Badenoch has no chance of even getting close to winning a GE.

It would be Hague/IDS territory on steroids.

If they want to put themselves in that kind of purgatory for half a decade then they're more than welcome to as I fucking hate the Tories. All they ever do is break stuff.

 

[Elephant Pyjamas]

Someone like Badenoch has no chance of even getting close to winning a GE.

I'm 100% certain you'd have said the same about Boris at some point?

The electorate are weird and wonderful.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Nah, Johnson always had bizarre appeal for reasons I will never understand, but it was obviously there.

Badenoch, not a chance.

 

[pr0sl0]

Was it New Zealand where the Conservative Party almost got wiped out? One lives in hope.

At the last election National (their version of the Tories) got nearly wiped out, down to 33 seats (out of 120 in the Parliament). They've got a form of PR down there, the election was held in the first year of the pandemic, Labour got more than 50% of the vote - they only survived because of PR, their lost nearly all of their geographical seats. Completely unprecedented and unlikely to be repeated in any kind of normal situation. But their next election is in October and on current polling they're back to neck and neck, and under PR it's a lot easier to bounce back from even that kind of wipeout.

Canada in 1993 is the really interesting example, and seems a lot like the UK now (especially as they use the same voting system): longstanding Conservative government mired in scandal and with a record of economic failure, went from 156 seats (out of 295) to just... 2. Their vote split in half, going to either the Liberals (who have been the dominant party of government there in the 30 years since) or to Reform (a breakaway right party which later merged with what was left of the old Tories to form the current, new Conservative party). Was such a tidal wave that the Bloc Quebecois were the second-largest party.

 

[Elephant Pyjamas]

Is there much data out there about how people would vote if we had PR?

 

[pr0sl0]

Nah, Johnson always had bizarre appeal for reasons I will never understand, but it was obviously there.

Badenoch, not a chance.

I know I've spent a lot of time today arguing that there's no such quality as "electability" per se, but still - Badenoch really would have to pull a blinder to win a GE. Her whole brand to this point is so laser-focused to appeal to a narrow demographic, and I think she's a true believer as well, it isn't just for show. And she may be a fresher face but she's also another MP promoted more for political loyalty than talent or intelligence.

But in terms of the actual leadership contest, she's Gove's protege - he'd have even more power and influence on such a small leftover party - and it just so happens that of the narrow part of the public she actually appeals to, it overlaps neatly with the Tory membership.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

At the last election National (their version of the Tories) got nearly wiped out, down to 33 seats (out of 120 in the Parliament). They've got a form of PR down there, the election was held in the first year of the pandemic, Labour got more than 50% of the vote - they only survived because of PR, their lost nearly all of their geographical seats. Completely unprecedented and unlikely to be repeated in any kind of normal situation. But their next election is in October and on current polling they're back to neck and neck, and under PR it's a lot easier to bounce back from even that kind of wipeout.

Canada in 1993 is the really interesting example, and seems a lot like the UK now (especially as they use the same voting system): longstanding Conservative government mired in scandal and with a record of economic failure, went from 156 seats (out of 295) to just... 2. Their vote split in half, going to either the Liberals (who have been the dominant party of government there in the 30 years since) or to Reform (a breakaway right party which later merged with what was left of the old Tories to form the current, new Conservative party). Was such a tidal wave that the Bloc Quebecois were the second-largest party.

Thank you sir - it was Canada I was clearly thinking of.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

I know I've spent a lot of time today arguing that there's no such quality as "electability" per se, but still - Badenoch really would have to pull a blinder to win a GE. Her whole brand to this point is so laser-focused to appeal to a narrow demographic, and I think she's a true believer as well, it isn't just for show. And she may be a fresher face but she's also another MP promoted more for political loyalty than talent or intelligence.

But in terms of the actual leadership contest, she's Gove's protege - he'd have even more power and influence on such a small leftover party - and it just so happens that of the narrow part of the public she actually appeals to, it overlaps neatly with the Tory membership.

The only three PMs to win a majority in the last 26 years are:

Blair (x 3)
Cameron (only just, and only once out of two goes)
Johnson (in what was as much a confirmatory Brexit vote as an actual GE)

Johnson himself didn't really promise anything other than Brexit (in block capitals, with no specifics), not being Corbyn and Levelling Up (a concept so nebulous that not one person has ever managed to properly define it). You could distil the entire 2019 manifesto into less space than Bruno Lage's CV.

You won't win a GE with culture wars and paper thin 80s economics which is all she has. She's also a complete charisma vacuum with genuinely nasty views who'd completely flounder in an actual campaign.

I don't know where they go post-Sunak and nor do I particularly care, so long as it's far away from Government.

 

[prawnking]

Do you? Why?

Do you think all voting intention poll data is pointing to increasing popularity and victory for the Tories?

Have you seen the 'talent' they have in the Cabinet? Their barrel is well and truly scraped and they need a new one

 

[prawnking]

I'm 100% certain you'd have said the same about Boris at some point?

The electorate are weird and wonderful.

This particular brand of 2016-style populism is dead. The British electorate is often stupid, but not always

 

[The Saturday Boy]

Do you think all voting intention poll data is pointing to increasing popularity and victory for the Tories?

Have you seen the 'talent' they have in the Cabinet? Their barrel is well and truly scraped and they need a new one

In May 2017, the Tories had leads of upto 20 points a month out from the General Election. Opinion polls point to the here and now and not to a General Election in 18 months time.

If inflation comes down, energy bills reduce, the tax burden is decreased and mortgage rates stabilise...voting intention data will change too.

Most people wouldn't even recognise a cabinet minister let alone have an opinion of their barrel.

 

[prawnking]

I think you're doing the electorate a disservice, and I don't think the landscape is the same as it was pre-Covid.

The voting intention data may well change, if the factors you describe magically happen, this government certainly isn't going to create the conditions otherwise as they're witless.

No complacency, but the Tories are toast. They have nothing in their favour anymore, and after 13 years voter fatigue and desire for something 'new' will kill them off, maybe for a while

 

[Del Woppio]

I agree largely but I do fear that the Tories/Murdoch will land on the right combo of culture war bullshit and "Labour green crap will cost you money" to wipe out a chunk of the 20 point lead. Then all it takes is the finishing move of 'coalition with SNP/Lib Dem will mean Brexit reversal and/or break up of the UK". We should never underestimate the British public's potential to be really fucking stupid and easily manipulated.

 

[prawnking]

I mean, this is obviously the main reason Starmer is playing it cautious, but of course that makes him a Tory to the election-winning experts on the far left

 

[Templeton Peck]

I mean, this is obviously the main reason Starmer is playing it cautious, but of course that makes him a Tory to the election-winning experts on the far left

Yep. Its 5D chess.

 

[prawnking]

So what do you think? Are Labour a shoe-in or can the Tories and their media chums still do some damage?

 

[Templeton Peck]

So what do you think? Are Labour a shoe-in or can the Tories and their media chums still do some damage?

I think the gap will close the nearer we get to the election. Labour should still win as the SNP have fucked themselves and Murdoch is happy with Starmer for now.

 

[lemonjelly]

Do you think all voting intention poll data is pointing to increasing popularity and victory for the Tories?

Have you seen the 'talent' they have in the Cabinet? Their barrel is well and truly scraped and they need a new one

Following sunak opening up oil & gas, the climate change deniers will now flock to the tories, another branch of the culture war and anti woke movement.
The welcome is being made by the tories looking to push back the 2030 electric car deadline.