Euro 2016 Qualifiers - The Road to France

[Deutsch Wolf]

Last minute goal for Turkey! They're going through.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Kazakhstan hold on for the win so Turkey through automatically.

Qualified Teams

France
England
Czech Republic
Iceland
Austria
Northern Ireland
Portugal
Spain
Switzerland
Italy
Belgium
Wales
Romania
Albania
Germany
Poland
Russia
Slovakia
Croatia
Turkey

Playoffs

Denmark
Republic of Ireland
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Sweden
Ukraine
Hungary
Slovenia
Norway

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Based on the 2013 national coefficients, that would make Bosnia, Ukraine, Sweden and Denmark the four seeded teams in the playoffs. Unlikely any of the other four will have caught them up.

 

[Freddeno]

Strange, in sweden they say ukraine, bosnia, sweden and hungary as seeded teams

 

[Freddeno]

I rather meet hungary instead of denmark so i hope you are correct

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Hungary were 18th in 2013 and Denmark were 14th. They got 16 points to Denmark's 12 in this campaign, but that was from 10 games as opposed to 8, and the only teams they actually beat were the Faroes and Finland. Would be strange if that was enough to overhaul the Danes.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Weird hex time:

1986 World Cup: France make semi-finals, fail to qualify for Euro 88
1990 World Cup: England make semi-finals, out in group stage of Euro 92
1994 World Cup: Sweden make semi-finals, fail to qualify for Euro 96
1998 World Cup: Croatia make semi-finals, fail to qualify for Euro 2000
2002 World Cup: Turkey make semi-finals, fail to qualify for Euro 2004
2006 World Cup: France make final, out in group stage of Euro 2008
2010 World Cup: Holland make final, out in group stage of Euro 2012
2014 World Cup: Holland make semi-finals, fail to qualify for Euro 2016

 

[Lupo]

Prior to that Italy won the 1982 World Cup but failed to qualify for the 1984 Euros

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Strange, in sweden they say ukraine, bosnia, sweden and hungary as seeded teams

Actually looks like Hungary might pip the Danes, at least according to my rudimentary workings.

Should be 40% down to this campaign, 40% for the World Cup 2014 qualifiers and 20% for the Euro 2012 qualifiers.

If we say points per game for this campaign (as the games played between the two is uneven), Hungary shade it 1.6 to 1.5. Hungary got one more point than Denmark for the 2014 qualifiers and both teams got 19 points for the 2012 qualifiers. UEFA don't make any distinction based on who you beat, or if you actually qualify (Denmark did in 2012 and Hungary didn't). Denmark are losing out now because 2010 (21 points vs 16) is dropping out of consideration.

So I guess everyone who isn't seeded wants Hungary.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Away trip to Budapest bonus as well.

 

[Lord Knows]

Who is in which pot.

http://www.faw.org.uk/news/WALES-IN-POT-4-FOR-EURO-DRAW/101576/

 

[jd1981]

Put it this way can't see there being a group of death especially with four best placed third teams progressing.
As long as England avoid Italy I think they'll be happy with the rest.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Is there going to be a round of 16 or is it straight to quarter finals?

6 groups of four suggests more likely the former. Which would mean you would only need to finish in the top two of the group to be absolutely sure of advancing and the best four third placed teams would also go through.

If it were the latter you would have to win the group to be certain and only the top two second placed teams would get through.

Wales are likely to be the best of the pot four teams. I would fancy their chances of finishing second in most groups, unless they ended up in the group with Italy and a top seed.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

It's the former. Same as Italia 90.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Obviously hard to call until the draw is made as there could be a group with say Germany and Italy, but I would think a reasonable chance of progress for both Wales and Northern Ireland. England should absolutely breeze into the last sixteen.

 

[Stan Hullis]

I hope we get Norn Iron or Wales in our group, might make the tournament a bit more interesting

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Looking at it more closely, Ireland will be in Pot 4 if they win their playoff UNLESS both of Norway and Slovenia also win through to the tournament proper. So a 50% chance of England getting another nation from these islands, but almost certain that there won't be three of us in the same group.

Poland and Romania are guaranteed to be in pot three no matter what happens in the play offs. It looks like Slovakia are guaranteed to be in that pot as well (or just about as good as guaranteed)

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

I hope we get Norn Iron or Wales in our group, might make the tournament a bit more interesting

That would be the very worst outcome for us, they would quite obviously raise their game against England.

 

[Stan Hullis]

That would be the very worst outcome for us, they would quite obviously raise their game against England.

That's true but we're not going to win the thing anyway so might as well have some fun along the way.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

The Republic definitely raised their game at Italia 90. Made it a very difficult (and essentially rather dull) game.