Wolves underperform at Molineux against teams at the lower end -discuss

[Doctor Doog]

And in our disaster season last year we lost to palace who were 10th, we were 3rd ,Peterborough who were 24th and we were 13th ,Ipswich who were 20th when we were 14th Huddersfield 21st when we were 19th. We dont have any issue do we lol

And I can pick another 4 games that we won against teams who were above us or another team who lost 4 home games against teams below them in the same season. That would not prove that you were wrong, in the same way that your statement doesn't prove you are right.

 

[Penk Wolf]

As both us and Peterborough were 1st and 2nd in the form guide last season whilst also being in the bottom 3, I'd imagine quite a few teams lost to the bottom 3 sides last season.

Anyway, as enjoyable as statistics are they bare no resemblance to the future.

 

[Wolf Hunting]

This thread is starting to read like one that features Hazel Grove Wolf and somebody else....

Maybe it should be renamed 'Wolves underperform in a Climate Change...'

By the way, where is Hazel Grove? (Well I know it's just North of Stockport) Has anyone heard of him in a while?

 

[Kenny]

This thread is starting to read like one that features Hazel Grove Wolf and somebody else....

Maybe it should be renamed 'Wolves underperform in a Climate Change...'

By the way, where is Hazel Grove? (Well I know it's just North of Stockport) Has anyone heard of him in a while?

He was recently melted by the rays of the sun.......which wouldn't have happened if it wasn't for man's destruction of the zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

 

[Deleted Cyber]

And I can pick another 4 games that we won against teams who were above us or another team who lost 4 home games against teams below them in the same season. That would not prove that you were wrong, in the same way that your statement doesn't prove you are right.

Please feel Free to pick especially pick the ones where we were underdogs by virtue of being
1. The away team - statistically an away win is the least likely result
2. Below the team we were playing at the time.

This would be the exact reverse of my probability theory.

You cant as there are only three instances last season when we won from position of underdog using the above points. Blackpool, Millwall and Birmingham. We were favourites using the above criteria against Ipswich, Bristol City and Peterborough in our away games as they were 21st 22nd and 24th respectively at the time of playing them. But you are disproving your own theory then I here you shout. No my theory is concerned only on HOME games . In home games I would suggest that we over performed against Hull 1-0 and Leicester 2-1 , those being games we were underdogs to win but did. We were favourites to win against Ipswich, Peterborough, Huddersfield and lost all three

I have put a balanced , reasoned argument together based on PROBABILITY and actual results. Probability is what bookies use and they arent often wrong. Basically if you had put money on Wolves to lose at home to a team lower than them you would have hit a winner 18 times in 31 defeats since 2001-2009 or 55.8% of Wolves home defeats came against teams who started the day below them and 8 of those (24.8%) were inflicted by sides who finished the season in the bottom four in the Championship

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Using last season is flawed though. It was a statistical outlier as being the worst season in nearly thirty years. The team under performed in virtually every game.

 

[Deleted Cyber]

Using last season is flawed though. It was a statistical outlier as being the worst season in nearly thirty years. The team under performed in virtually every game.

hence why I went from 2001 to 2009. top eight sides dont lose to teams lower than them as often as us and dont lose to teams who finish in the bottom four as often as us. Cant give any more evidence other than probability based. The initial point was that is something we must address if we are to get back to the premier league in the future. The consistent winning when youre expected to and not losing to the real bad teams in the league.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

We have beaten the two bottom teams we have played this season. 100% is hardly shit, although I will concede that is a very small number of results to base it on. Equally, if you want to get promoted, you need to be beating the teams around you in the race as well, as those are the six pointers. I don't think we are too bad at that.

 

[Johnny75]

The counter argument is that any team consistently at the top of their league is always going to have statistically poor as whoever they lose to will always be lower ranked than them (which is now your new yardstick, nice change of goalposts there). However if you mean losing to a team who is in the bottom three at the time then your results hold no water as Darlo and indeed your results have pointed out. Especially as only 1 team (Millwall) were in the relegation spots when Wolves played them at home and lost and that was early in September with the league only 8 games (one month) old.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

played 3, won 3. 100%

 

[pavlosmacwolf]

Moyes must be thanking the lord that Cyber is not a Man U fan today

 

[Deleted Cyber]

played 3, won 3. 100%

bout time we started address the issue, shame it took us til now to buck the trend of the last decade or more . Good to see they are and happy for the 3 points.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

2009 we averaged 2.09 points per game against the bottom teams, as DW told you in the original thread.

 

[Deleted Cyber]

2009 we averaged 2.09 points per game against the bottom teams, as DW told you in the original thread.

1 year in 9 is hardly bucking the trend especially when we won the league and given that some wont allow me to have Readings perfect 4-0-0 record when they won the league. Cant have it both ways.
Glad however that they are addressing it this season and hope for further evidence throughout the next 9 years , in higher leagues. Still waiting for someone to find me a championship club with a worse record against the bottom four.

 

[Johnny75]

I don't know why you're persisting with this silly line now. It's been debunked by points, method and results.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Maybe the point may be that the season we really did the best at your stat, we won the league, and we did so quite comfortably. So maybe there is something in it. Saying that though, the concern is whether you chose teams in the bottom four when we play them, or those that finished in the bottom four at the end of the season. For instance, Sheffield United are in our list of bottom four opponents at the moment (which gives us the win in scoresheet for the stat) but say they improve (and with their squad they really should) do we then discount that score from the stats? What if Walsall fall away, have a crap remainder of the season and end up near the bottom? Do we count that loss against Wolves for the purposes of the stat in that case even though Walsall were in higher mid-table at the time?

My other point is that if you want to do really well at the top you have to beat the teams around you as well. That is something that Wolves are pretty damn good at.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Still waiting for someone to find me a championship club with a worse record against the bottom four.

Surely it is your job to definitively prove that we have the worst record of all top end Championship clubs. After all it is YOUR theory - based, as others have pointed out, on baseless assumptions and iffy sample sizes/samples - that has been almost universally questioned. Why should someone else take the time and effort to delve through years of results?

I'm comfortable enough with the evidence I've presented that you're way wide of the mark.

 

[Deleted Cyber]

Surely it is your job to definitively prove that we have the worst record of all top end Championship clubs. After all it is YOUR theory - based, as others have pointed out, on baseless assumptions and iffy sample sizes/samples - that has been almost universally questioned. Why should someone else take the time and effort to delve through years of results?

I'm comfortable enough with the evidence I've presented that you're way wide of the mark.

Ok- Im bored now. Thanks for your contributions it is appreciated.

 

[Deleted Cyber]

something to sleep on. Make your own mind up. Here are the resuklts of the top eight sides against the bottm four in the championship years .You asked, I reaserached and we are consistently below average

2001/2 Top 8 record at home v bottom 4 Rotherham,Crewe Barnsley Stockport
Man city 3- 1 -0
WBA 3- 1 -0
Wolves 2-1-1
Millwall 3-0-1
Birmingham 3-1-0
Norwich 2-2-0
Burnley2-2-0
Preston2-2-0
Conclusion worst home record in the top 8 re bottom 4

2002-3
Top 8 record at Home v bottom 4 Stoke Sheff Wed Brighton and Grimsby
Portsmouth 3-0-1
Leicester 2-2-0
Sheff Utd 4-0-0
Reading 2-1-1
Wolves1-3-0
Forest 3-1-0
Ipswich1-3-0
Norwich 2-1-1
Conclusion joint fewest points in the top 8 against bottom 4 sides
2004/5
Top 8 record at Home v bottom 4 Crewe, Gillingham Forest Rotherham

Sunderland 3-1-0
Wigan 3-1-0
Ipswich 4-0-0
Derby 3-0-1
Preston 3-1-0
West Ham 3-1-0
Reading 4-0-0
Sheff u 2-2-0
Wolves 2-2-0
Joint Worst home record v bottom 4 in the top 9 ( but we did finish ninth!)

2006 Record v QPR Crewe Millwall and Brighton
Reading 4-0-0
Sheff UTD 2-1-1
Watford 2-1-1
Preston 2-2-0
Leeds 3-1-0
Palace 1-2-1
Wolves 2-1-1
Coventry3-1-0
Only 1 team had a worse record against bottom 4 sides and two others had the same
2007 Record of top 8 v bottom four Hull Southend Luton Leeds
Sunderland 4-0-0
Birmingham 1-2-1
Derby 4-0-0
WBA 3-1-0
Wolves 3-1-0
Southampton 4-0-0
Preston 3-0-1
Stoke 1-3-0

Three sides had worse records this season 3 sides had better and one the same- no pattern

2007-8 v Coventry Leicester Scunthorpe and Colchester
WBA 2-0-2
STOKE 2-1-1
HULL 3-1-0
BRISTOL C 2-1-1
PALACE2-2-0
WATFORD 2 -1-1
WOLVES 3-1-0
IPSWICH 4-0-0

Joint second BEST record

And finally 200/8/9 v Plymouth Norwich Southampton and Charlton
Wolves 2-1-1
Birmingham 2-2-0
Sheff Utd 3-1-0
Reading 2-1-1
Burnley 3-1-0
Preston 2-1-1-
Cardiff 3-1-0
Swansea 3-1-0
Champions yet the joint worst with 2 others in the top eight versus the bottom four sides.
Sorry All those who don’t agree. I think that the pattern here is clear.

 

[Penk Wolf]

What I'd like to know is where these teams were in the form guide when we played them.