Wolves Prospectus: A Stat and Chart Heavy Look at the Season

[Mel Evo]

I think a lot of information slips through when watching a game, we get drawn to a big chance missed, or a big tackle or something like that and tend to miss out lots of little actions that add up. why I love the stats so much, basketball is hard enough to judge if a player is playing well when it's 2 teams of 5 with clear offense and defense, double that and the line between attack and defense blurs and it's very hard with the eye.

but I do value people who watch every game, why I threw it out to the wolves here to get torn apart

It’s pretty easy to tell with the naked eye that Gomes and Lemina are miles ahead of Doyle, and that Kilman is a limited defender. If it’s harder to discern that truth from your stats alone then go reflect on it, don’t imply your perspective is as valid.

It also doesn’t help that you imply some kind of binary distinction between regular viewers / attendees and data-informed observers. On the contrary, seeing what is happening off the ball and forming opinions based on that movement is the privilege of the full-pitch watcher.

 

[saturdaysoncouch]

It’s pretty easy to tell with the naked eye that Gomes and Lemina are miles ahead of Doyle, and that Kilman is a limited defender. If it’s harder to discern that truth from your stats alone then go reflect on it, don’t imply your perspective is as valid.

It also doesn’t help that you imply some kind of binary distinction between regular viewers / attendees and data-informed observers. On the contrary, seeing what is happening off the ball and forming opinions based on that movement is the privilege of the full-pitch watcher.

it is very hard to do that watching in real-time, but yes I agree there are lots of things that stats don't show you.

I am just pointing out what they did, Gomes and Lemina didn't progress, receive, get involved in buildup, etc. it's not my opinion, they just simply didn't do it. the Wolves attack was poor when they were involved, that's just the data. why everyone seems to have higher opinions than I do of them is what I am trying to figure out

 

[lemonjelly]

think that's a style of play issue. we progress the ball via our wide players in the main.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

We played Brighton in our first home game. 1-0 down at HT but had played reasonably enough and would have been at least level if we didn't have Fabio Silva up front.

After HT we inexplicably emptied midfield and we were 4-0 down inside 15 minutes, conceding identical goals where we lost possession in the attacking third and it was in the back of our net 10 seconds later.

So we never did that again after that day, which might go some way to explain why Lemina and Gomes don't feature that heavily in the attacking areas. Also all of our CHs have at least one fundamental flaw so they all need loads of protection, all the time, otherwise we get battered.

 

[Johnny75]

I think a lot of information slips through when watching a game, we get drawn to a big chance missed, or a big tackle or something like that and tend to miss out lots of little actions that add up. why I love the stats so much, basketball is hard enough to judge if a player is playing well when it's 2 teams of 5 with clear offense and defense, double that and the line between attack and defense blurs and it's very hard with the eye.

but I do value people who watch every game, why I threw it out to the wolves here to get torn apart

I admire the amount of work you've put into this doc and it's easy to criticise as the hardest thing to do is start with a blank piece of paper.

Having said that, there's a reason clubs send scouts to games and use stats as a tool and not to be relied upon.

I disagree with your conclusions and use of stats as you're comparing bare stats not the success of tactics and without that the stats lack context.

For instance Tommy Doyle is easily the worst of our midfielders, like Kilman he can't play without a physical presence or two next to him as he's weak and slow. I don't think he's particularly good on the ball either, he's very late in seeing the pass and whist technically ok when given time he makes poor decisions when pressed. When compared with a similar player like Wharton (same age and experience) he's miles short of the required standard.

If you don't watch the games your analysis is flawed from the off as the most important thing you can't see from stats is the decision making of the players and how that affects the relationships between the players and what they understand they are trying to do. That tactical analysis and ability to carry out instruction is key.

I'd be interested on your level of knowledge of the game of football itself and how many games you watch as that would underpin your use of stats.

It's an interesting take to just use stats to compare individual players in a team game and it does tell me why ultimately this kind of analysis is fundamentally flawed and have led to completely incorrect conclusions.

 

[saturdaysoncouch]

I admire the amount of work you've put into this doc and it's easy to criticise as the hardest thing to do is stay with a blank piece of paper.

Having said that, there's a reason clubs send scouts to games and use stats as a tool and not to be relied upon.

I disagree with your conclusions and use of stats as you're comparing bare stats not the success of tactics and without that the stats lack context.

For instance Tommy Doyle is easily the worst of our midfielders, like Kilman he can't play without a physical presence or two next to him as he's weak and slow. I don't think he's particularly good on the ball either, he's very late in seeing the pass and whist technically ok when given time he makes poor decisions when pressed. When compared with a similar player like Wharton (same age and experience) he's miles short of the required standard.

If you don't watch the games your analysis is flawed from the off as the most important thing you can't see from stats is the decision making of the players and how that affects the relationships between the players and what they understand they are trying to do. That tactical analysis and ability to carry out instruction is key.

I'd be interested on your level of knowledge of the game of football itself and how many games you watch as that would underpin your use of stats.

It's an interesting take to just use stats to compare individual players in a team game and it does tell me why ultimately this kind of analysis is fundamentally flawed and have led to completely incorrect conclusions.

I do know the game, but I like to think I know what I don't know in a way. I cannot watch a match and tell you how every single player played, it's just too much information and impossible to handle it all. I tend to think a few moments generally stick out in our minds and if a player did those well/poorly (or it led to a goal), then those are the ones that color our opinion of their performance. but I have been using these metrics and stats for a long time and find them broadly a very good guide, of course there are some misses now and again but it's rare.

I think the biggest benefit is the team level stuff to see what teams do well/poorly/differently but the player numbers always get the most talk.

Doyle will certainly be one I follow in the future because better things happen for Wolves when he has the ball than all the other midfielders, by a pretty large margin.

 

[Johnny75]

I do know the game, but I like to think I know what I don't know in a way. I cannot watch a match and tell you how every single player played, it's just too much information and impossible to handle it all. I tend to think a few moments generally stick out in our minds and if a player did those well/poorly (or it led to a goal), then those are the ones that color our opinion of their performance. but I have been using these metrics and stats for a long time and find them broadly a very good guide, of course there are some misses now and again but it's rare.

I think the biggest benefit is the team level stuff to see what teams do well/poorly/differently but the player numbers always get the most talk.

Doyle will certainly be one I follow in the future because better things happen for Wolves when he has the ball than all the other midfielders, by a pretty large margin.

A good guide to what?

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

We're a hard team to judge in an attacking sense, basically Neto and Cunha are obscenely talented and we do quite often rely on just giving them the ball and waiting for them to do something brilliant. Then Hwang is one of the strangest PL players you'll ever see, we've been watching him first hand for three years and we don't know what he is. But he certainly was effective this season.

All of those were injured at the same time at one point (we had zero back up to them, because our owners are stupid), Hwang also went away for a month in Jan/Feb with South Korea, and we never started a game with all three after the end of October.

That's never going to translate well to raw stats and data.

 

[Johnny75]

it is very hard to do that watching in real-time, but yes I agree there are lots of things that stats don't show you.

I am just pointing out what they did, Gomes and Lemina didn't progress, receive, get involved in buildup, etc. it's not my opinion, they just simply didn't do it. the Wolves attack was poor when they were involved, that's just the data. why everyone seems to have higher opinions than I do of them is what I am trying to figure out

We didn't play through midfield as neither Gomes not Lemina are creative players. GoN tried, with limited success, to go back to front with his passing or through the wing backs bypassing Lemina and Gomes.

Both Sarabia and Cunha played more as inside forwards rather than wider forwards/ wingers, they would drop into the half space to receive the ball.

Neto did the same but we also had the option of the ball over the top to him or for Semedo to carry and commit defenders.

It's important to see the late runs and movement off the ball (we didn't get this right imo) which you can't get from stats.

 

[saturdaysoncouch]

We didn't play through midfield as neither Gomes not Lemina are creative players. GoN tried, with limited success, to go back to front with his passing or through the wing backs bypassing Lemina and Gomes.

Both Sarabia and Cunha played more as inside forwards rather than wider forwards/ wingers, they would drop into the half space to receive the ball.

Neto did the same but we also had the option of the ball over the top to him or for Semedo to carry and commit defenders.

It's important to see the late runs and movement off the ball (we didn't get this right imo) which you can't get from stats.

you do kind of get this through stats in how a player receives the ball and how his area produces. if he makes good runs, he will eventually get some good receiving numbers or his area will produce very well due to another player around him receiving well. that is measurable via stats

 

[saturdaysoncouch]

We didn't play through midfield as neither Gomes not Lemina are creative players. GoN tried, with limited success, to go back to front with his passing or through the wing backs bypassing Lemina and Gomes.

Both Sarabia and Cunha played more as inside forwards rather than wider forwards/ wingers, they would drop into the half space to receive the ball.

Neto did the same but we also had the option of the ball over the top to him or for Semedo to carry and commit defenders.

It's important to see the late runs and movement off the ball (we didn't get this right imo) which you can't get from stats.

right, I think we are agreeing here. that was one of my points is that Lemina and Gomes are basically non-existent offensively, which is a huge problem for Wolves. it hurts their offensive game and defensive game when your midfield is so poor with the ball

 

[Lycan]

Lemina & Gomes are not poor on the ball.

Can I ask where you source your stats? I might be missing it but I can't see anywhere on your article where you credit anyone with compiling the stats for you?

 

[Johnny75]

right, I think we are agreeing here. that was one of my points is that Lemina and Gomes are basically non-existent offensively, which is a huge problem for Wolves. it hurts their offensive game and defensive game when your midfield is so poor with the ball

They're not poor on the ball at all it's the way GoN uses them. Alonso does very similar at Leverkusen as does Gasperini at Atalanta

That's tactical not ability.

Lemina was magnificent winning tackles and calming situations down when needed and making lung bursting runs to support counter attacks or get back and shut down an opposition counter.

Like many of our players he was run into the ground and looking at raw stats over a whole season you should see that as a trend.