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Ukraine

Tredman said:
Someone tracked his plane, it was correct.
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Not arguing that point, just replying to the “ he made a video today” comment, needs something definite to date it like a newspaper being held up.
Bin laden was told that, and in one of his videos he said I’ve been asked to say when this video came out, so he said spurs are shit, was told that could be anytime in the last 50 years!
 
Keef said:
Not arguing that point, just replying to the “ he made a video today” comment, needs something definite to date it like a newspaper being held up.
Bin laden was told that, and in one of his videos he said I’ve been asked to say when this video came out, so he said spurs are shit, was told that could be anytime in the last 50 years!
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Fucking hell, the winning fringe joke was funnier than that.
 
I've been following this war a great deal. Thought I'd chip in.

We now have what I would class as reliable estimates for KIA. 70k for Ukraine and 120k for Russia.

On the plus side the Russians are hard pressed on the Western Zaporizhia front with almost all units fully commited they can't reinforce adequatly. Hopeing to see some significant gains for Ukraine by March.
We (the 'West') were really too slow to agree to providing more advanced equipment such as advanced ammo for MLRS, ground combat vehicles, artillery and aircraft.
 
Problems continue to mount for Russia in Western Zaporizhia. Copy paste from Institute for the study of war: Ukrainian armored vehicles are operating beyond the final line of the Russian defensive layer that Ukrainian forces in western Zaporizhia Oblast are currently penetrating, although ISW is not yet prepared to assess that Ukrainian forces have broken fully through this Russian defensive layer. Geolocated footage posted on September 21 indicates that Ukrainian armored vehicles advanced south of the Russian anti-tank ditches and dragon’s teeth obstacles that are part of a tri-layered defense and engaged in limited combat immediately west of Verbove (18km southeast of Orikhiv).[1] It is unclear if Ukrainian forces retain these positions, however. This is the first observed instance of Ukrainian forces operating armored vehicles beyond the Russian tri-layer defense.[2] The presence of Ukrainian armored vehicles beyond the final line of the current Russian defensive layer indicates that the Ukrainians have secured their breach of the first two lines of this layer sufficiently to operate vehicles through the breach. Ukrainian forces have likely suppressed Russian artillery and other anti-tank systems in the area enough to bring their vehicles forward.[3] The Ukrainian ability to bring armored vehicles to and through the most formidable Russian defenses intended to stop them and to operate these vehicles near prepared Russian defensive positions are important signs of progress in the Ukrainian counteroffensive.[4] Additional geolocated footage published on September 20 and 21 indicates that Ukrainian forces also advanced west and southwest of Verbove.[5]
 
Big battle ongoing in Western Zaporizhia. Russian forces trying to drive the Ukraine breakthough back. Apparently a failed attempt to encircle the breakthough. ISW report the situ is fluid/dynamic. A lot can hinge on this. That said there isn't really an end in sight until next summer I reckon. And that's being optimistic. Wouldn't be surprised that this is still going on next September.
 
Can’t see either side achieving outright victory and compromise isn’t on the table so it’s ebb and flow until the will from one side starts to fade.

Not sure how sustainable this is for the Ukrainian’s though with their losses, and I’d be very worried about the growing resentment in the US regarding the vast sums of money they are committing to Ukraine and also the further debate as to why they should even be involved in the first place.

I think the longer this goes on and a bit of apathy sets in and questions asked elsewhere the tougher this is going to get for the Ukrainians.
 
EpsomWolf said:
Can’t see either side achieving outright victory and compromise isn’t on the table so it’s ebb and flow until the will from one side starts to fade.

Not sure how sustainable this is for the Ukrainian’s though with their losses, and I’d be very worried about the growing resentment in the US regarding the vast sums of money they are committing to Ukraine and also the further debate as to why they should even be involved in the first place.

I think the longer this goes on and a bit of apathy sets in and questions asked elsewhere the tougher this is going to get for the Ukrainians.
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Yes I agree. War fatigue is clearly setting in. That said, Russia is also getting fatigued. If the war does not end with Ukraine in control of all pre 2014 territory it will be because the largely Western arms suppliers have given up. There are scenarios that do end with Ukraine victorious and these all involve the collapse of the Putin regime either during or after.
 
A lot probably depends on the US elections, trump gets re-elected the weapons and aid to Ukraine will stop immediately, rest of NATO won’t be able to fill the gaps without seriously weakening themselves.
 
Ukraine and Poland have already fallen out about grain and Poland aren't helping them out currently. Inevitable that the longer it goes on, more countries will start to question the amount of support. The conflict could go on for years.
 
What is significant now is that Ukraine are regularly hitting targets in Crimea, which was considered so safe that Russians were still holidaying there this summer.
Unlike the other annexed regions which were considered still contested, Crimea has long been thought a safe part of Russia. If that changes it will clearly be seen in Russia and may result in significant weakening of Putin's control.
 
Depending on how the battle in the Orikhyv salient plays out we might see the loss of a bit of a wedge currently controlled by Russia. But I agree with you re the Crimea strikes. Ukraine is targeting carefully to make the Russians aware that state media might not be telling the truth as well as striking military/logistics targets. Which helps push the Putin regime. But censorship is so rampant I just can't see a people's revolution, just another dictator. Whatever happens to the Putin regime it will be quite bloody one imagines.
 
sycophantia said:
Ukraine and Poland have already fallen out about grain and Poland aren't helping them out currently. Inevitable that the longer it goes on, more countries will start to question the amount of support. The conflict could go on for years.
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Yes, and the Republican's are making it a thing in the US which could potentially cripple Ukraine. But lets be optimistic.
 
KentWolf said:
Yes I agree. War fatigue is clearly setting in. That said, Russia is also getting fatigued. If the war does not end with Ukraine in control of all pre 2014 territory it will be because the largely Western arms suppliers have given up.
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The cost of replenishing the stockpiles is absolutely massive, GMLRS alone will almost double its production quantities over the next four to five years and the sub tier supply chain is struggling. On top of trying to bring GMLRS-ER into full service the financial burden is immense. It’s understandable that supporting countries will, at some point, reel in the supply of arms as it’s just simply unsustainable.
 
Keef said:
A lot probably depends on the US elections, trump gets re-elected the weapons and aid to Ukraine will stop immediately, rest of NATO won’t be able to fill the gaps without seriously weakening themselves.
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He currently has a 10 point poll lead over Biden. If he gets nicked again it'll be 15.
 
Boozad said:
The cost of replenishing the stockpiles is absolutely massive, GMLRS alone will almost double its production quantities over the next four to five years and the sub tier supply chain is struggling. On top of trying to bring GMLRS-ER into full service the financial burden is immense. It’s understandable that supporting countries will, at some point, reel in the supply of arms as it’s just simply unsustainable.
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Whilst domestic factors of cost are very important to Ukraine's backers, so is the Putin regime a factor. It has geopolitical ramifications worldwide should countries we regard as dictatorships be allowed to obtain foreign policy goals with hard power.
 
Armenia and Georgia are already worried they’ll be next if he gets to keep the Donbas and other land grabs in Ukraine, it’s already kicking off with Armenia and Azerbaijan over their disputed regions, putin has been trying to boss Kazakhstan about, they’ve told him to do one.
There’s a a few Russian regions getting a bit tetchy as well, Chechenya, Dagestan, Astrakan, are out protesting in the streets wanting their freedom
 
Keef said:
Armenia and Georgia are already worried they’ll be next if he gets to keep the Donbas and other land grabs in Ukraine, it’s already kicking off with Armenia and Azerbaijan over their disputed regions, putin has been trying to boss Kazakhstan about, they’ve told him to do one.
There’s a a few Russian regions getting a bit tetchy as well, Chechenya, Dagestan, Astrakan, are out protesting in the streets wanting their freedom
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Ai, there's ramifications all over shop. Africa as well, possibly Syria. I've not heard about protests in Chechnya, Dagestan or Astrakhan but am aware of the situation in Armenia and Azerbaijan. The latter is basically Russia not being able to militarily meet treaty obligations. I also heard something about Kazakhstan wriggling out from the Russian regieme's boot heel, or at least trying to.
As far as I'm aware actual protests in Russia have been largely stamped out in a quite Orwellian fashion. Polling is impossible but rough estimates for the percentage of the Russian population who believe state propaganda are still over 60%. And those 60% will rat out anyone.
But also think about the fact that so far Iran is Russia's biggest arms supplier and Putin has just put on the full red carpet show for the dictator of North Korea. Whilst Xi was expected (by me at least) to be chucking at least ammo to the Russians he's basically just buying cheap oil and whatever else. Putin is reduced to playing with the real low lifes. NK is a tinpot regieme and the only reason why anyone cares about it is it's nukes, human rights and very aggressive stance. That even before the nukes.
 
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