Trump

[Elephant Pyjamas]

I'm not too sure how this will eventually play out?

But I take little comfort in an emboldened Iran...

Exactly.

The world is in a worse place than it was 8 weeks ago.

 

[Wilf Wolf]

Exactly.

The world is in a worse place than it was 8 weeks ago.

Undoubtedly. They’re untouchable now, unless someone wants to send in ground troops. Assissinate a nuclear scientist or anything else Israel has done previously they close the SoH. In the meantime they’ll be making drones and missiles and before long will have more than ever.

 

[AndyWolves]

Donny has allowed Iran to put tariffs on all the tankers moving through SOH, somewhat ironic I think as these tariffs will make Iran richer

I also think the major oil players will be looking how to mitigate future SOH events through pipelines etc

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

You build across the arabian peninsula to ships in Jeddah, and you run into the choke point where the houthis and somalian pirates take turns to have pot shots. Of course you can go through suez canal, but that isn't a walk in the park and no assistance to anybody in the far eastern markets.
You go around iran to head to the far east and connect up in singapore say, your pipeline is going through russian and probably chinese territory.
Go west and you will either have to go through syria to turkey or have israel control the mediterranean port of exit, or you go through egypt which isn't stable, and giving egypt huge control over oil movements is going to set netanyahu off. Not to forget your pipeline is then going through sinai which has been dodgy for years.

You could build a pipeline to muscat, I suppose. But the houthis are still going to be sat around, and that port is comfortably within iranian range as well.

 

[Dire Wolf]

I'm not too sure how this will eventually play out?

But I take little comfort in an emboldened Iran...

An emboldened Iran is bad news for Iranians for sure. However, it is no more dangerous than an emboldened Israel or US Imperialism.

What this has created of course, is a situation where Iran now fully knows how it can threaten the rest of the world at any time it wants through its stranglehold on the Straits of Hormuz. The last few weeks have just confirmed for the entire globe that they have us by the short and curlies. The only real solution is through negotiating and cooperating with them and ideally through global shifts in the reliance on oil.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

So Trump has effectively stabilised a regime by making them untouchable. And the regime is now run by the bloke whose family was decimated by hegseth playing COD. Terrific.

 

[Wilf Wolf]

I guess finding oil elsewhere becomes more attractive. Somewhere like Venezuela perhaps! Or maybe Russia…

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Or the north sea...

 

[Wilf Wolf]

Or the north sea...

Not much left.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

There is tons down here. Government prefers to import for some reason but there are big oilfields off northwest oz, and some big deposits in the red centre, and i think victoria and the bass strait

 

[Wilf Wolf]

Probably bad news for the Arctic too as Trump will use this fiasco to justify exploiting oil there and the inevitable environmental disaster will follow.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

That will please the Canadians

 

[EdgeOfTheAlps]

So the answer to an oil crisis is Korean oil...great

 

[Wilf Wolf]

The answer is renewables as fast as possible.

 

[leedswolf]

There is tons down here. Government prefers to import for some reason but there are big oilfields off northwest oz, and some big deposits in the red centre, and i think victoria and the bass strait

Qld has started unlocking Oz's first domestic oil supply for 50 years from the Taroom Trough.

 

[Wolftone]

Iran backed Hamas and infrastructure destroyed.
Iran backed Hezbollah being destroyed in Lebanon.
Supreme arsehole and many cohorts dead.
Iran's enrichment programme set back/discontinued indefinitely.
Strait of Hormuz open.
Seems like a good win for Israel mainly to me.

 

[Alan]

The answer is renewables as fast as possible.

“It’ll never be profitable!”, shouted the Oligarchs, all the time shoveling the wealth of nations into a furnace labeled Artificial General Intelligence.

 

[leedswolf]

Not much left.

To establish a new well on existing fields would take between 1 and 3 years. A new well on new fields about 15 years.

 

[Del Woppio]

Iran backed Hamas and infrastructure destroyed.
Iran backed Hezbollah being destroyed in Lebanon.
Supreme arsehole and many cohorts dead.
Iran's enrichment programme set back/discontinued indefinitely.
Strait of Hormuz open.
Seems like a good win for Israel mainly to me.

Wasn't the enrichment "completely obliterated" a few months ago? Seems odd that it needs obliterating again so soon.

And the strait was already open until Trump and Netanyahu went on the rampage?

So basically all that's been achieved is that a few people have been killed. People who will be immediately replaced, and they'll be angry and emboldened, knowing that they've got proof of concept in how to fight back and cause absolute chaos for the whole world.

Is that worth the lives of the 175 school girls who were murdered on day one?

 

[Alan]

Del I think you’re forgetting that Donald knows the art of the deal