The Race For The Top Four

[Paddingtonwolf]

Even finishing 7th won't guarantee anything if I've understood the permutations correctly - Leicester might spoil the party if they win the UCL.

Just focus on us and it'll work itself out.

That looks like an extra place so shouldn't be a problem. The real mess comes if someone finishing outside the top four wins the CL, and then West Ham win the EL.

 

[The Bion]

Ok yep as I thought, I haven't understood correctly

We can only control our results, so may as well be at peace with everything else being out of our control. Be more zen, y'all.

 

[Law's Bus]

Even finishing 7th won't guarantee anything if I've understood the permutations correctly - Leicester might spoil the party if they win the UCL.

Just focus on us and it'll work itself out.

They won't. If they don't finish in a European spot then they would get a 5th CL place.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

They won't. If they don't finish in a European spot then they would get a 5th CL place.

They wouldn't. They get an EL place as they are in the Conference League.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

The complication is you cannot have more than 5 teams in the Champions League. So if West Ham win the Europa they get a place. If Manchester United win the CL - SADLY NO LONGER POSSIBLE so let's say Chelsea absolutely fucking implode and finished 5th and won the CL. Then that is six teams. Too many. So fourth wouldn't get CL.

 

[Law's Bus]

They wouldn't. They get an EL place as they are in the Conference League.

Yes, you're right, but it's an additional EL place for winning in all likelihood, just like the winning the EL gets an additional CL place if you finish outslde the CL places.

UEFA need to hurry up and publish the 2022-23 competition regulations to be 100% sure though.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Additional EL places are allowed. Same way as one additional CL place is allowed to accommodate a winner elsewhere. Conference League, additional places are not allowed. It can only be one team at the start of the competition from each member country.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

So we have three remaining representatives in the CL. All three should make up the premier league top three, with a worst case scenario being Chelsea slipping to fourth. So Champions League winner should really not matter. Top four get the CL spots.

West Ham could win the Europa, although I suspect that complication dies tonight. If they did, that would go into the one extra spot.

FA Cup winner and 5th get Europa. Plus Leicester get an extra Europa if they win the conference league. So ideally we want one of the top four winning the FA Cup. Then its back to 5th and 6th for Europa. Next available league space automatically will get the Conference slot as Liverpool won the League Cup.

 

[Law's Bus]

So we have three remaining representatives in the CL. All three should make up the premier league top three, with a worst case scenario being Chelsea slipping to fourth. So Champions League winner should really not matter. Top four get the CL spots.

West Ham could win the Europa, although I suspect that complication dies tonight. If they did, that would go into the one extra spot.

FA Cup winner and 5th get Europa. Plus Leicester get an extra Europa if they win the conference league. So ideally we want one of the top four winning the FA Cup. Then its back to 5th and 6th for Europa. Next available league space automatically will get the Conference slot as Liverpool won the League Cup.

Yep, that's exactly my understanding, though it's also all good if the FA Cup winner finishes 5th.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

The other thing to state for clarity is that there are no circumstances whatsoever that a league placing below 7th without a cup win gets you European football of any colour.

One extra thing to add. England will always get only one conference league entrant, along with Spain, Italy, Germany and France, due to the coefficients for those associations. Lower ranked associations get either 2 or 3 places, bar Liechtenstein, who only get 1 due to their teams all playing in the Swiss League system. Their cup winners get their place. San Marino get two.

 

[Elephant Pyjamas]

I want 7th minimum and Conference League football next season.

I have a bad feeling that Leicester will win that this year. Rodgers seems to be putting all his eggs in the Conference basket with his team selections, he's going all out for it.

edit: looks like all this has been covered in the time between Jinky posted and i posted!

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Well, they haven't started very well.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

I have a bad feeling that Leicester will win that this year. Rodgers seems to be putting all his eggs in the Conference basket with his team selections, he's going all out for it.

And also I need to stress that Leicester winning the Conference makes no difference at all to other European allocations. It's simply an extra Europa League space.

 

[AndyWolves]

And also I need to stress that Leicester winning the Conference makes no difference at all to other European allocations. It's simply an extra Europa League space.

So if Leicester win the conference 7th in the PL still gets you into Europe?

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Yes. As long as one of the top six wins the FA Cup, and West Ham don't win the Europa League while say Chelsea win the Champions League having fallen to 5th.

 

[AndyWolves]

This feels a little bit like the white hole episode in red dwarf

So what is it?

 

[thisisgil]

If we could finish somewhere near our previous highest points totals of 57 & 59 points I'd be happy.

That's actually mental when you think about it:

14 points in 9 matches would give us our highest Premier League finish ever. Achieved by a new manager who many tipped to fail, in his first season as a manager in this country coaching a squad largely assembled by his predecessor with minimal investment.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

It is really simple actually.

Things we want:

1.Liverpool, Manchester City, Chelsea or whomever finishes fourth (if it isn't us) to win the FA Cup.
2.We finish a minimum of 7th
3.Chelsea do not win the Champions League if they finish 5th or worse (or indeed the FA Cup in that circumstance)
4. West Ham do not win the Europa League if both 1, 2 , 3 above occurs

 

[AndyWolves]

That's actually mental when you think about it:

14 points in 9 matches would give us our highest Premier League finish ever. Achieved by a new manager who many tipped to fail, in his first season as a manager in this country coaching a squad largely assembled by his predecessor with minimal investment.

14 points from 9 matches is more or less aligned to our current PPG

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

I think 60 is definitely on, but we have to win the games against the weaker sides, as relying on picking up anything from Liverpool or Manchester City in the final knockings of a title race is a huge ask. Chelsea, well who knows.