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Stats and Analysis Thread

Home performances of late have suggested that we can play with a bit more freedom and succeed. I'm worried about the away crap that is being dished up though. I'd sooner that we get beat by having a go than getting beat in the fashion that we did at Newcastle.
 
It's really hard to judge him on expansive football with a squad that's built on a containing low block. There's probably only the three fullbacks, Neves and Neto that you'd want in the 442 he's used before.

Stylistically, and functionally, it's not been good enough, and he's got away with it because of a freakish performance vs xg and the eye test. There needs to be a big window for me, and his game management and tactics do need to improve, but he does absolutely need different tools to do a different job
 
YoungWolf said:
We've brought in a manager to be more open and expansive and as a result, we're giving up more chances (fortunately our goalkeeper and last ditch defending has been much better than last season) and we are still blunt in attack. It shouldn't really surprise anyone from what we have actually watched this season bar the opening three games and the odd game here and now.
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We aren't more open and expansive though.

Not that I think that's why we hired him...
 
It's been a dysfunctional relationship for most of the season to be fair, I don't think there's a great deal of harmony between squad and manager in terms out how they want to play.

Sometimes we've seen a happy compromise, sometimes match circumstances have meant things worked for the situation but for the most part they've tended to muddle through doing just enough.

Be interesting to see where it goes in the summer. I guess from Fosun's point of view the table looks decent enough so perhaps have the mindset that nothing needs to change significantly. If the results dropped off next season you'd expect Lage to come under pressure before long because it's always easier to swap a coaching team than the playing staff.
 
MARKakaJIM said:
It's been a dysfunctional relationship for most of the season to be fair, I don't think there's a great deal of harmony between squad and manager in terms out how they want to play.

Sometimes we've seen a happy compromise, sometimes match circumstances have meant things worked for the situation but for the most part they've tended to muddle through doing just enough.

Be interesting to see where it goes in the summer. I guess from Fosun's point of view the table looks decent enough so perhaps have the mindset that nothing needs to change significantly. If the results dropped off next season you'd expect Lage to come under pressure before long because it's always easier to swap a coaching team than the playing staff.
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That is a good point. Almost every game Lage is on the touchline waving like a semaphore operator on cocaine and players still seem to play in the way they want. Hwang cannot get his head around the IF role at all and alternative plans are rare. Even without Raul playing the ball out from Coady in the air was used and that's just giving possession back to the opposition. I don't think Lage with this current crop of players is the long term answer. The squad is in need of a significant refresh and the manager needs to show a lot better idea with his tactics and how that translates to the offering on the pitch every week. We are no better to watch this season than we were last season, even though we have got far more reward for our efforts.
 
Our players are mainly full Internationals. If his hand waving isn't getting them to do what he wants, game after game after game then I know where I'd be looking and it's not at the players
 
Tony Towner said:
Our players are mainly full Internationals. If his hand waving isn't getting them to do what he wants, game after game after game then I know where I'd be looking and it's not at the players
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Being good doesn't mean you're suitable for everything though. It's not a question of the players outright talent but whether their strengths and weaknesses suit what the coach wants the team to do as a whole.

With Nuno it was a pretty harmonious matchup, he was very conservative in his approach to games and that suited most of his players. It covered majority of the individual weaknesses, particularly out of possession, because the compact defensive shape meant they were rarely isolated. Offensively it think it perhaps held some players back because they didn't often get a lot of support. However, at times the overall team shape sitting deep meant the isolated attackers found themselves in a lot of space against a limited number of opposition, where they could often thrive so it wasn't all bad for them.

I think Lage has tried to push more of them away from their comfort zones and cracked have unsurprisingly appeared at times. Defenders have to take more responsibility at times, getting tighter and with more emphasis on winning their individual battles. Sometimes it's worked well, sometimes it's gone to shit. I don't think he's got anything like a decent tune out of the attacking players regularly to offset the extra exposure he's put on the defence. There's been the odd glimpse of some coached movement patterns but it's few and far between, to my eyes a lot of the time the team still looks very risk averse in both their movement and passing choices which restricts how fluent they can be severely.

Personally, and I don't expect anyone to agree, I don't think there is any player in the current squad so special to warrant dictating the entire playing style of the team. If the club have their heart set on a different brand of football to what Nuno delivered then I think the squad needs a chunk of remodelling to suit, doesn't necessarily mean every player has to be better but merely different in some aspects. If they want to maximise the effectiveness of the players they currently have then it's probably unlikely to happen with the current coach from what I've seen, there seems to be little experimentation in pushing them to new things any more.
 
It's not about what the players are or aren't able to do. It's about his inability to communicate his message during games. He waves his arms around manically, looking frustrated, but whatever he's trying to get over he clearly isn't. I don't think that's the players refusing or delivering ineffectively. It's either that he's not getting his ideas over or that there isn't really any message there beyond the arm swirling - either way that's on him.
 
Tony Towner said:
It's not about what the players are or aren't able to do. It's about his inability to communicate his message during games. He waves his arms around manically, looking frustrated, but whatever he's trying to get over he clearly isn't. I don't think that's the players refusing or delivering ineffectively. It's either that he's not getting his ideas over or that there isn't really any message there beyond the arm swirling - either way that's on him.
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That's complete conjecture isn't it.

We don't know whether he's instructing complete nonsense and being ignored or if the players can't/won't follow what they've been told. For all we know they carry out his wishes to the letter through training midweek and then fall apart on matchday, leading to his frantic antics on the touchline.

All I'd say with any confidence is that the way the often perform doesn't appear to be through any design. Somewhere along the line the message is being lost either through it's translation, it's understanding or it's execution. If that disparity continues then generally you'd expect something to be done to correct it, change the message, the delivery or the execution, but I think generally positive results have reduced the urgency for now.
 
Del Woppio said:
You've somehow written off the possibility that the players aren't or can't do what they've been told to do?
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I agree this is a possibility however after 78 minutes Trincao and Hwang were still on the pitch on Friday. If he was so animated at what was going wrong, why not try and change it?

He's even come out today and praised what Campbell and Chiquinho have been doing and criticised what others aren't.
 
Johnny75 said:
Isn't that just had management?

It didn't help that our recruitment is abysmal I know.
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Yeah it's almost definitely a part of it, but I don't think he's asking anything that's not completely beyond them, it's happened in fits and starts, but if the consistency in performance isn't there, and you haven't got any/many options, and with the table as it is meaning he doesn't need to let them default to attritional shite, I can understand a lot of his frustration.

That's not to excuse his in game tactical management, which has been terrible.
 
Sniffer said:
I agree this is a possibility however after 78 minutes Trincao and Hwang were still on the pitch on Friday. If he was so animated at what was going wrong, why not try and change it?

He's even come out today and praised what Campbell and Chiquinho have been doing and criticised what others aren't.
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Yeah I agree, the subs were so late as to be pointless. But if we take as true that Neto wasn't fit for more than 20, then Chem and Chiqinho aren't even stand out for under 21s.

He should have done more, it was obvious we needed 3 in midfield after about 15 minutes, but then even then his options were Saiss and Coady.

Ignoring the table completely, I think he's done a very meh job. There's been bits of excellent stuff, but a lot of absolute guff, and nothing like a progressive improvement towards a defined style. It's looked very confused
 
Sniffer said:
I agree this is a possibility however after 78 minutes Trincao and Hwang were still on the pitch on Friday. If he was so animated at what was going wrong, why not try and change it?

He's even come out today and praised what Campbell and Chiquinho have been doing and criticised what others aren't.
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It's a worrying thought but what if the alternatives are considered to be even worse than the incumbents who were failing so miserably?

I would've changed something sooner though personally, at half time I'd have ditched one of Hwang or Trincao with the thought that the other would follow not long after unless they improved. Even if I had little faith in the replacements being better I'd lost patience with the two starters non-performances.
 
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Del Woppio said:
You've somehow written off the possibility that the players aren't or can't do what they've been told to do?
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I think that's a probability when it comes to the initial formation and the decision in pre season to abandon a back 4 and to revert back to something similar to ways of old after 3 games.

I don't accept that during games though. If there was a change that didn't work then that would make sense, if there was an appreciable tactical tweak again even if it failed then I could buy into that, so I'm not having that they are trying to do it, but can't because any player can do something badly. Which leaves refusing, not understanding or there not being a discernable message in the first place. Nothing about the vast majority of this bunch of players tells me they'd willfully refuse to do what the manager told them
 
I like xG and stats in general as those here who recognise my posts from any of the other faceless posters will be able to tell, but I always feel like xG doesn't take into account the psychology of sport or how different players react to that.

xG is awarded the same for a shot in the first minute, the 27th minute and the 90th minute isn't it? During the Arsenal game for example someone posted on another site I am on that Arsenal had the most chances but they didn't feel confident they were going to score them, or that it always feels like chances against Wolves have players throwing themselves at the shooter etc, and that despite fewer chances for us, Wolves felt higher quality.
 
big mean bunny said:
I like xG and stats in general as those here who recognise my posts from any of the other faceless posters will be able to tell, but I always feel like xG doesn't take into account the psychology of sport or how different players react to that.

xG is awarded the same for a shot in the first minute, the 27th minute and the 90th minute isn't it? During the Arsenal game for example someone posted on another site I am on that Arsenal had the most chances but they didn't feel confident they were going to score them, or that it always feels like chances against Wolves have players throwing themselves at the shooter etc, and that despite fewer chances for us, Wolves felt higher quality.
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xG is hugely flawed to be using as an exact measure.

It doesn't take into account score at the time, time itself or simply who had the chance. It is a figure based on the likelihood of a player scoring in that position based on other players shooting from that position.

That makes it nothing more than a bit of fun really unless there are huge discrepancies like the ones above.
 
I’ll say it til I’m blue in the face stop taking single game xG as what it’s all about!

It’s much better to see long term underlying performance, which isn’t pretty reading for us this season which I think most would agree with anyway!
 
I think xG is a decent tool to use for making less objective comparisons between players / teams.

It obviously doesn't take into account opportunities only shots. So a shot from 35 yards which is on target counts for more than a dangerous ball across the 6 yard box.
 
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