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Societal collapse?

Walshes Wolves said:
As you would know, Germany has been in recession for almost 2 years. The trains are even less reliable than in the UK and the car industry, which is the main industry has taken a huge hit.
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Yes, you are right.

The silent killer for the trains and indeed the motorways is that there are thousands of bridges that are in need of restoration in the west. They don't have the spare money now as they did when the infrastructure in the ex DDR was being rebuilt 30 years ago.

As for the car industry, they are scared of the Chinese and have been for ten years. I knew a German Audi executive in Guangdong province (Canton in common parlance) while I worked over there from 2014-17. He shared that Audi knew that they cannot use the most up-to-date production lines in the new Chinese factories (see link below) because otherwise they are finished in Germany.

Most Germans of our generation accept that 'Das Wirtschaftswunder ist lange vorbei', ie the economic miracle is long over. The Chinese on the other hand often state after visiting Europe that we live in a museum and that the future is theirs.

We simply cannot compete and some claim that we are not able to make productivity gains, lack new young workers, that we don't have enough entrepreneurial workers, and that we have lost our spirit of innovation in the west. Actually, the reality should include a growing market of first time buyers in China compared to say, Europe, wages are lower, taxes are lower, workers rights are fewer, profits are higher, and investors don't want to replace or renew old factories (remember Goodyear, etc in Wolverhampton).

Anyone interested might have a quick look at how Audi stand in China:

www.audi.com

Audi in China | audi.com

As the world's largest automotive market, China is of particular strategic importance. Audi therefore produces vehicles locally together with two partners, develops market-specific technologies and manages sales in the market.
www.audi.com www.audi.com
 
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Wellen Wolf said:
Yes, you are right.

The silent killer for the trains and indeed the motorways is that there are thousands of bridges that are in need of restoration in the west. They don't have the spare money now as they did when the infrastructure in the ex DDR was being rebuilt 30 years ago.

As for the car industry, they are scared of the Chinese and have been for ten years. I knew a German Audi executive in Guangdong province (Canton in common parlance) while I worked over there from 2014-17. He shared that Audi knew that they cannot use the most up-to-date production lines in the new Chinese factories (see link below) because otherwise they are finished in Germany.

Most Germans of our generation accept that 'Das Wirtschaftswunder ist lange vorbei', ie the economic miracle is long over. The Chinese on the other hand often state after visiting Europe that we live in a museum and that the future is theirs.

We simply cannot compete and some claim that we are not able to make productivity gains, lack new young workers, that we don't have enough entrepreneurial workers, and that we have lost our spirit of innovation in the west. Actually, the reality should include a growing market of first time buyers in China compared to say, Europe, wages are lower, taxes are lower, workers rights are fewer, profits are higher, and investors don't want to replace or renew old factories (remember Goodyear, etc in Wolverhampton).

Anyone interested might have a quick look at how Audi stand in China:

www.audi.com

Audi in China | audi.com

As the world's largest automotive market, China is of particular strategic importance. Audi therefore produces vehicles locally together with two partners, develops market-specific technologies and manages sales in the market.
www.audi.com www.audi.com
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I agree with all you say and thank you for the link.
My friend's son, who lives in Munich, just bought himself a BMW motorbike. I told my friend that the engine is now made in China. He told me not to tell his son that, as he would be very disappointed.
 
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Walshes Wolves said:
I agree with all you say and thank you for the link.
My friend's son, who lives in Munich, just bought himself a BMW motorbike. I told my friend that the engine is now made in China. He told me not to tell his son that, as he would be very disappointed.
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Depends which model bike, some are still made in Germany, some in Malaysia, but as you say certain models are made in China.
The big concern is the Chinese company (Lonchin I think) make a model which is the same as the one for BMW, badged as a Voge, which fr the same spec is half the price and has a 4 year warranty.
Up until very recently Chinese bikes were considered a joke, however there are a number of brands which are as least as good as the European and Japanese competitors for a fraction of the price.
 
sycophantia said:
Depends which model bike, some are still made in Germany, some in Malaysia, but as you say certain models are made in China.
The big concern is the Chinese company (Lonchin I think) make a model which is the same as the one for BMW, badged as a Voge, which fr the same spec is half the price and has a 4 year warranty.
Up until very recently Chinese bikes were considered a joke, however there are a number of brands which are as least as good as the European and Japanese competitors for a fraction of the price.
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BMW F900 GS.
 
Walshes Wolves said:
BMW F900 GS.
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Yep that's the Voge.
For value its unbeatable. The Voge version comes fully specced up, all the bells and whistles for less than 10,000 quid. The BMW starts at 3 grand more but once you've added all options to bring it up to the Voge it's over 16,000.
Now some will say it's a moral choice as well as cost but it seems to me if you buy anything mechanical or electrical it's really hard to find (maybe impossible) anything with no Chinese parts.
 
sycophantia said:
Yep that's the Voge.
For value its unbeatable. The Voge version comes fully specced up, all the bells and whistles for less than 10,000 quid. The BMW starts at 3 grand more but once you've added all options to bring it up to the Voge it's over 16,000.
Now some will say it's a moral choice as well as cost but it seems to me if you buy anything mechanical or electrical it's really hard to find (maybe impossible) anything with no Chinese parts.
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Unfortunately I think it's a pretty charitable analysis. Absolute folly to think that Reform/AfD/NF are "loved by 20% and hated by the rest".

Ultimately they all thrive on their electorate's lives being pretty fucking miserable, and then they step in with a convenient scapegoat, and the promise that if we just put all the brown people back where they belong then everything will be OK.

If people's lives were going to get better, then you could see a case for their popularity peaking now, but our lives aren't going to get better. Poor people will become poorer, ordinary people will continue to be dragged into the shit, and the populists will get to point over there and blame immigration to an ever angrier electorate. Honestly wouldn't surprise me if by the end of this decade at least two out of the three mentioned are in an actual coalition government. It's not just racist old boomers anymore
 
Del Woppio said:
Unfortunately I think it's a pretty charitable analysis. Absolute folly to think that Reform/AfD/NF are "loved by 20% and hated by the rest".

Ultimately they all thrive on their electorate's lives being pretty fucking miserable, and then they step in with a convenient scapegoat, and the promise that if we just put all the brown people back where they belong then everything will be OK.

If people's lives were going to get better, then you could see a case for their popularity peaking now, but our lives aren't going to get better. Poor people will become poorer, ordinary people will continue to be dragged into the shit, and the populists will get to point over there and blame immigration to an ever angrier electorate. Honestly wouldn't surprise me if by the end of this decade at least two out of the three mentioned are in an actual coalition government. It's not just racist old boomers anymore
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The German electorate have probably chosen the least unpopular party out of the most unpopular party leaders.

Where have we seen this before?

FB_IMG_1740413780449.jpg
 
leedswolf said:
An interesting map of Germany, ahead of tomorrow’s elections, showing which party is leading in the polls in each state.

Those of a certain age may recall the resemblance to the old Cold War border between West Germany- EU member and western outlook and East Germany- under a Soviet controlled puppet regime.

The reasons for this division go deep, from the relatively recent arrival of democracy after hiatus of more than half a century the yearning for a society where everything was provided for and the way in which despite billions in state investment in the east, those states were plundered by western businesses leaving a legacy of unemployment and low pay.

View attachment 13028
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See also Russia. Gorbachev wanted it to be a beacon of social democracy very much inspired by Scandinavia. UK and USA were much less keen on that and forced them down the road of neoliberalism. Putin a product of that unfortunately.
 
One thing for Sure, AFD were around 20% all over Germany, which is surprising. CDU won most seats in Western Germany, but AFD were 2nd in the vast majority of western Germany. The AFD gained most from people under 24.
CDU have a very hard line on immigration, but maybe held back a little, by the SDU. Germany are in for some tough times and will be cutting social security benefits, at the same time spending much more on weapons. Seems a common approach at the moment. It seems we have just gone backwards 90 years.
 
leedswolf said:
www.dw.com

German election results explained in graphics – DW – 02/24/2025

Mainstream conservatives led by Friedrich Merz have won Germany's 2025 election. Here's a look in charts at the wins and losses, seats in parliament, possible coalition outcomes and voter demographics.
www.dw.com www.dw.com
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I put up the same map that is in your link, but it let you see the exact percentage in each area.it was frightening how widespread the AFD vote is it isn't just in the East, but a strong second in most parts of western Germany. The most worrying thing, is AFD have got the youngsters voting for them.
 
leedswolf said:
The Far Left slightly ahead in the 18 - 24 years range..
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My apologies AFD ahead 18 to 34, with hard left slightly ahead on 18 to 24.
It almost seems the exact opposite of the Brexit vote. The older you are, the less likely to vote for the AFD, who got their votes from the younger generations.
 
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